2024 QB Watch

I think Penix is going to be a wildcard in this Draft. I think a few teams are going to have him their #4 ranked QB on their boards, while others will have him their 6th. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"comet52" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1754501215788900653?s=20

Feel like most will be surprised to see JJ McCarthy so high on the list. People bag on him for not really carrying Michigan, but if you watch his tape in detail he really made a lot of throws when they needed it most, which plays into that 3rd down %. Pulls out the storyline that Michigan may just have not needed to throw it much to win. Still don't think we saw what McCarthy can or can't be in that offense. Tough projection. 

One thing McCarthy has developed that will help his pro career is play-action. He's excellent at hiding it, much like Cousins. I think he's got a bunch of upside, he's a young guy who just turned 21 years old and would benefit greatly by being drafted by Minnesota and sitting behind Cousins.

I haven't seen this comp much, but McCarthy reminds me a lot of Brock Purdy with a better arm. That's good enough in the right environment. But I do think it leads you to believe there will be some limitations. But you nailed the fact that McCarthy needs to probably sit at least a year. I just don't think that will be Kirk if its the route they go. Kirk and his camp are very aware the Vikings may draft a developmental QB and won't sign a deal that makes that a favorable outcome for MN. E.G they'll ask for guarantees through year 2 and partial guarantees into the 3rd year of a contract with no trade clause. I wouldn't read that as Kirk not wanting to be a team player. Its rather he wants it to be his team without the media pressure and fan favoritism towards a backup QB. 

What's the upside to drafting a QB then having him sit through most of the years you have cost control?

 Do KAM/KOC want to hitch their carees to aging Kirk off an achilles injury?

 Is the fan base going to stay interested in a team that wins 7-10 games every year and never does squat in the playoffs? The home field advantage seems to have evaporated and a friend who goes to every game says it feels dead in there a lot of the time.

As always I wonder what the direction is and can't see one that leads anywhere beyond revenue as the primary concern. Ymmv.

It'll be interesting to hear Geoff...

 Some of my own thoughts:

 There is a BIG downside to pushing a rook QB out there too early
 GB imo is best in bringing a QB along
 None of the Tier 2 guys (who are the highest probability of being a Viking) are viewed as year 1 starters 
 Vikings with Kirk were 13/3 with a 28 ranked D just a season removed, 23 was an injury shit show

 All that said, I am not sure the Vikings and Kirk are going to reach agreement on a structure, especially with how Geoff is laying-out what Cousins is looking for.  

A lot will come down to who is interested and how his market shapes up. If in the end its hot and some ready to win teams like the Falcons, Steelers, etc. want to go for it over the next 2-3 years I don't really see how they are going to find a contract structure that works for MN. Comet said it well, Kirk doesn't want to be a bridge QB, he is looking to compete and win. So the Vikings can't really have it both ways. In other terms its where you are either competitive or rebuilding and aren't undergoing a competitive rebuild. 

Leaves MN in a real funny spot either needing to keep the pedal down on competing now or trading up for a high-end rookie QB who can play immediately. 

The irony is that it is Cousins himself who is going to flip the switch between competitive and not competitive. 

I guess it all really depends on what you want to compete for,  but yes,  the level of competition of this team has been largely controlled by Cousins,  I will maintain until I'm dead that if  Kirk would have taken a Brady approach,  he would have delivered a Lombardi to MN.  With his run of good  health  added onto spreading 10-15 million each year over a few of those key deficient positions in FA along the O and D line,  instead of swings and misses in the draft,  I think we would have gotten it done,  or at the very least made people think we were the team to beat.

There's only one thing to compete for. It's simple from there: with Kirk we contend for it, without him we don't, at least not without getting incredibly lucky in the draft. 

We haven't really since he got here,  whats going to change now that he's a year older and coming off injury?

To start, the defense is better. Improved from hovering between 30th and 31st the last two years to top half this year. Second, if there's a better QB/WR/WR/TE in the NFL, I'd like to know who it is. The tackles are elite and Cousins, who improved significantly in year two of the offense would very likely improve even more in his 3rd. Yes, the injury is a concern, but not the age yet. 

I'll be very surprised if Kwesi and company don't do everything they can to bring Kirk back. 

That defense was starting to look defeated later in the year,  and losing Harry won't help it any.

Losing Harry's money might. Vikings get about $12M upon his release. You could feasibly upgrade Harry with a guy a full 10 years younger at about half that cap hit.

I know some think Flores was "figured out" late in the year, and maybe that played a part. But I think a bigger factor was that the Vikings were playing without three key starters on defense and using a turnover machine at QB. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"VikeMike52" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"VikeMike52" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"supafreak84" said: Just to give folks an idea of the cost it would take the Vikings to move into the top 3, Schefter reporting today that for the Bears to move down one spot in a trade down with Washington, the "minimum starting point" is two 1st round picks. So for the Vikings to move up anywhere into that top 3, you are talking a minimum of three 1st round picks along with other compensation in the form of additional picks and players. I DO NOT want to see this front office lock themselves into a Hershall Walker deal that depletes our future resources to the point it cripples us like the Walker trade did. 

I'm starting to really like the idea of drafting McCarthy.  Do it at 11 if he's your guy.  Or trade down some if you think its not going to screw your franchise for the next decade.  Go ahead and resign Kirko.  See if we can bring in one impact FA on D and sign or replace Hunter. 

It's why I say, was it worth being "competitive" this last season to once again go nowhere, or would we have been better off just stinking it up and landing a top 3 pick ourselves with more options? To me if you are a middle of the road or bad team, the more options you have in the offseason the better, but that's not how the Wilf's operate and we are once again stuck trying to make a decision on "selling the farm" to try to get a quarterback and re-signing Cousins once again on an extension because options are limited 

Mahomes was what the 12th pick so who knows, maybe they can identify a very good QB prospect that is within striking distance. We just have to trust their evaluations.

Well unfortunately the list of anything under the new regime that would lead me to "trust their evaluations" is minimal at best. You can see it in whatever shaded glasses you want, but it's been a struggle. To me, this is the most important offseason we've had in years and will be the difference in us either making a run with the pieces we have left or being the doormat in the division the next few years. It's that important 

I suppose it’s fairly important to them also. I refuse to dwell on the negative and hold out hope. They say it takes 3 years to judge a draft. As far as their evaluations they have hit on some picks and I guess I’ll wait to see on the rest. Just my feelings, not asking you to agree, so if you don’t mind I’ll just keep looking through my shaded glasses.

Typically you'd at least like to see some sort of upward trajectory, like we're seeing with Ed Ingram. And we just haven't seen that in some picks like Cine, Booth and Asamoah. Each will be entering year three and if their lights don't come on in a year where each now has a clear path to the starting lineup, it's probably never going to happen. 

It's a mixed bag though. Evans was a top third corner until he turned into Wasswa Serwanga the last three games. Ingram looks like a long term, league-average starter, and Chandler looks like a pretty good 5th round pick. Jury's still out on Nailor, who can't stay healthy. 2023 was better with Addison, Blackmon and Pace Jr., all good looking starters.

@"pattersaur" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"VikeMike52" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"VikeMike52" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"supafreak84" said: Just to give folks an idea of the cost it would take the Vikings to move into the top 3, Schefter reporting today that for the Bears to move down one spot in a trade down with Washington, the "minimum starting point" is two 1st round picks. So for the Vikings to move up anywhere into that top 3, you are talking a minimum of three 1st round picks along with other compensation in the form of additional picks and players. I DO NOT want to see this front office lock themselves into a Hershall Walker deal that depletes our future resources to the point it cripples us like the Walker trade did. 

I'm starting to really like the idea of drafting McCarthy.  Do it at 11 if he's your guy.  Or trade down some if you think its not going to screw your franchise for the next decade.  Go ahead and resign Kirko.  See if we can bring in one impact FA on D and sign or replace Hunter. 

It's why I say, was it worth being "competitive" this last season to once again go nowhere, or would we have been better off just stinking it up and landing a top 3 pick ourselves with more options? To me if you are a middle of the road or bad team, the more options you have in the offseason the better, but that's not how the Wilf's operate and we are once again stuck trying to make a decision on "selling the farm" to try to get a quarterback and re-signing Cousins once again on an extension because options are limited 

Mahomes was what the 12th pick so who knows, maybe they can identify a very good QB prospect that is within striking distance. We just have to trust their evaluations.

Well unfortunately the list of anything under the new regime that would lead me to "trust their evaluations" is minimal at best. You can see it in whatever shaded glasses you want, but it's been a struggle. To me, this is the most important offseason we've had in years and will be the difference in us either making a run with the pieces we have left or being the doormat in the division the next few years. It's that important 

I suppose it’s fairly important to them also. I refuse to dwell on the negative and hold out hope. They say it takes 3 years to judge a draft. As far as their evaluations they have hit on some picks and I guess I’ll wait to see on the rest. Just my feelings, not asking you to agree, so if you don’t mind I’ll just keep looking through my shaded glasses.

Typically you'd at least like to see some sort of upward trajectory, like we're seeing with Ed Ingram. And we just haven't seen that in some picks like Cine, Booth and Asamoah. Each will be entering year three and if their lights don't come on in a year where each now has a clear path to the starting lineup, it's probably never going to happen. 

It's a mixed bag though. Evans was a top third corner until he turned into Wasswa Serwanga the last three games. Ingram looks like a long term, league-average starter, and Chandler looks like a pretty good 5th round pick. Jury's still out on Nailor, who can't stay healthy. 2023 was better with Addison, Blackmon and Pace Jr., all good looking starters.

The jury is in on Nailor: he can't stay healthy. Agreed on the rest. Evans is especially curious. Seems like he and Flo butted heads later in the year but can that be resolved? I hope so.

Merrill Hoge on the Caleb Williams hype:

“He is not special… He is not Patrick Mahomes, not remotely close to that”😳

(via: @NBCSBears)
pic.twitter.com/JnIiz7q694

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) February 9, 2024

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"comet52" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1754501215788900653?s=20

Feel like most will be surprised to see JJ McCarthy so high on the list. People bag on him for not really carrying Michigan, but if you watch his tape in detail he really made a lot of throws when they needed it most, which plays into that 3rd down %. Pulls out the storyline that Michigan may just have not needed to throw it much to win. Still don't think we saw what McCarthy can or can't be in that offense. Tough projection. 

One thing McCarthy has developed that will help his pro career is play-action. He's excellent at hiding it, much like Cousins. I think he's got a bunch of upside, he's a young guy who just turned 21 years old and would benefit greatly by being drafted by Minnesota and sitting behind Cousins.

I haven't seen this comp much, but McCarthy reminds me a lot of Brock Purdy with a better arm. That's good enough in the right environment. But I do think it leads you to believe there will be some limitations. But you nailed the fact that McCarthy needs to probably sit at least a year. I just don't think that will be Kirk if its the route they go. Kirk and his camp are very aware the Vikings may draft a developmental QB and won't sign a deal that makes that a favorable outcome for MN. E.G they'll ask for guarantees through year 2 and partial guarantees into the 3rd year of a contract with no trade clause. I wouldn't read that as Kirk not wanting to be a team player. Its rather he wants it to be his team without the media pressure and fan favoritism towards a backup QB. 

What's the upside to drafting a QB then having him sit through most of the years you have cost control?

 Do KAM/KOC want to hitch their carees to aging Kirk off an achilles injury?

 Is the fan base going to stay interested in a team that wins 7-10 games every year and never does squat in the playoffs? The home field advantage seems to have evaporated and a friend who goes to every game says it feels dead in there a lot of the time.

As always I wonder what the direction is and can't see one that leads anywhere beyond revenue as the primary concern. Ymmv.

It'll be interesting to hear Geoff...

 Some of my own thoughts:

 There is a BIG downside to pushing a rook QB out there too early
 GB imo is best in bringing a QB along
 None of the Tier 2 guys (who are the highest probability of being a Viking) are viewed as year 1 starters 
 Vikings with Kirk were 13/3 with a 28 ranked D just a season removed, 23 was an injury shit show

 All that said, I am not sure the Vikings and Kirk are going to reach agreement on a structure, especially with how Geoff is laying-out what Cousins is looking for.  

A lot will come down to who is interested and how his market shapes up. If in the end its hot and some ready to win teams like the Falcons, Steelers, etc. want to go for it over the next 2-3 years I don't really see how they are going to find a contract structure that works for MN. Comet said it well, Kirk doesn't want to be a bridge QB, he is looking to compete and win. So the Vikings can't really have it both ways. In other terms its where you are either competitive or rebuilding and aren't undergoing a competitive rebuild. 

Leaves MN in a real funny spot either needing to keep the pedal down on competing now or trading up for a high-end rookie QB who can play immediately. 

The irony is that it is Cousins himself who is going to flip the switch between competitive and not competitive. 

I guess it all really depends on what you want to compete for,  but yes,  the level of competition of this team has been largely controlled by Cousins,  I will maintain until I'm dead that if  Kirk would have taken a Brady approach,  he would have delivered a Lombardi to MN.  With his run of good  health  added onto spreading 10-15 million each year over a few of those key deficient positions in FA along the O and D line,  instead of swings and misses in the draft,  I think we would have gotten it done,  or at the very least made people think we were the team to beat.

There's only one thing to compete for. It's simple from there: with Kirk we contend for it, without him we don't, at least not without getting incredibly lucky in the draft. 

We haven't really since he got here,  whats going to change now that he's a year older and coming off injury?

To start, the defense is better. Improved from hovering between 30th and 31st the last two years to top half this year. Second, if there's a better QB/WR/WR/TE in the NFL, I'd like to know who it is. The tackles are elite and Cousins, who improved significantly in year two of the offense would very likely improve even more in his 3rd. Yes, the injury is a concern, but not the age yet. 

I'll be very surprised if Kwesi and company don't do everything they can to bring Kirk back. 

That defense was starting to look defeated later in the year,  and losing Harry won't help it any.

Losing Harry's money might. Vikings get about $12M upon his release. You could feasibly upgrade Harry with a guy a full 10 years younger at about half that cap hit.

I know some think Flores was "figured out" late in the year, and maybe that played a part. But I think a bigger factor was that the Vikings were playing without three key starters on defense and using a turnover machine at QB. 

UNC quarterback who can only throw to one side of the field? About to go second overall?

I'm in. https://t.co/p54NTfGmTj

— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) February 14, 2024

Luis Riddick thinks Jayden Daniel's is the "clear cut" number 2 QB in this draft. I think we are starting to see more of a consensus on this. With that said, it would still be tough to see the Patriots passing on whomever the 3rd guy is. 

Also of note, Field Yates at ESPN just released his 1st mock draft. He has the Vikings taking EDGE Jared Verse at #11, followed by the Broncos taking McCarthy at #12, and Pittsburgh taking Nix at #20. 

@"supafreak84" said: Luis Riddick thinks Jayden Daniel's is the "clear cut" number 2 QB in this draft. I think we are starting to see more of a consensus on this. With that said, it would still be tough to see the Patriots passing on whomever the 3rd guy is. 

Also of note, Field Yates at ESPN just released his 1st mock draft. He has the Vikings taking EDGE Jared Verse at #11, followed by the Broncos taking McCarthy at #12, and Pittsburgh taking Nix at #20. 

New England staying at 3 and taking the QB is still the most likely. But the idea that they could trade down to build their roster is gaining a lot of steam. 

I’ll go a step further than Merrill Hoge after my review of Caleb Williams. Not only do I think he “isn’t special”, I think there’s a better than average chance he’ll bust. He’s going to have to work his tail off to be a viable NFL QB.

Why? His decision making is too slow. He will struggle in structure because of it and in the NFL you have to be able to play within structure to succeed. The ball has to be out on time, accurate, and anticipatory. There is very little sign of any of this in his game tape. The things he does to make uo for these deficiencies - run all over the place, is unlikely to work for long before defensive coordinators force him to beat them from the pocket. That will necessitate much faster processing than he has shown thus far.

His arm talent is exceptional so there is something to work with. As a prospect he isn’t terrible, but taking him in the top 10 is crazy risky. Can he get it together? Possibly, but it’s probably dependent on where he goes. 

My current QB rankings:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Bo Nix
3. JJM
4. Drake Maye
5. Michael Penix
6. Caleb Williams

One other thing I’ll add about Caleb Williams:

The first 5 games of the season he played poor overall teams. The vast majority of his positive stats came during these games. 

The last seven games, when he started playing some reasonably decent teams, he threw 9 TD’s to 4 Int’s. If you watch the games, he’s lucky it wasn’t 9 picks.

The same trend can be seen in his Heisman year to some extent. 

He’s a great college QB, but he’s a 3rd round pick to me. 

@"Havoc1649" said: I’ll go a step further than Merrill Hoge after my review of Caleb Williams. Not only do I think he “isn’t special”, I think there’s a better than average chance he’ll bust. He’s going to have to work his tail off to be a viable NFL QB.

Why? His decision making is too slow. He will struggle in structure because of it and in the NFL you have to be able to play within structure to succeed. The ball has to be out on time, accurate, and anticipatory. There is very little sign of any of this in his game tape. The things he does to make uo for these deficiencies - run all over the place, is unlikely to work for long before defensive coordinators force him to beat them from the pocket. That will necessitate much faster processing than he has shown thus far.

His arm talent is exceptional so there is something to work with. As a prospect he isn’t terrible, but taking him in the top 10 is crazy risky. Can he get it together? Possibly, but it’s probably dependent on where he goes. 

My current QB rankings:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Bo Nix
3. JJM
4. Drake Maye
5. Michael Penix
6. Caleb Williams

And oddly, even though I'm lower on Drake Maye than most, I think he probably has the highest floor. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: I’ll go a step further than Merrill Hoge after my review of Caleb Williams. Not only do I think he “isn’t special”, I think there’s a better than average chance he’ll bust. He’s going to have to work his tail off to be a viable NFL QB.

Why? His decision making is too slow. He will struggle in structure because of it and in the NFL you have to be able to play within structure to succeed. The ball has to be out on time, accurate, and anticipatory. There is very little sign of any of this in his game tape. The things he does to make uo for these deficiencies - run all over the place, is unlikely to work for long before defensive coordinators force him to beat them from the pocket. That will necessitate much faster processing than he has shown thus far.

His arm talent is exceptional so there is something to work with. As a prospect he isn’t terrible, but taking him in the top 10 is crazy risky. Can he get it together? Possibly, but it’s probably dependent on where he goes. 

My current QB rankings:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Bo Nix
3. JJM
4. Drake Maye
5. Michael Penix
6. Caleb Williams

I'd agree that Caleb Williams probably has the lowest floor. How he does in the NFL is going to depend a lot on who he goes to and how they choose to play him. But the boom is very high. 

And oddly, even though I'm lower on Drake Maye than most, I think he probably has the highest floor. 

The #NFL is significantly higher on JJ McCarthy than I ever could have imagined.

I had a direct source today share that a team in the NFC has him as their QB 2.

— Destin Adams (@TheDestinAdams) February 14, 2024

@"Havoc1649" said: I’ll go a step further than Merrill Hoge after my review of Caleb Williams. Not only do I think he “isn’t special”, I think there’s a better than average chance he’ll bust. He’s going to have to work his tail off to be a viable NFL QB.

Well if this is all true then I think he's a perfect fit for the Bears!  =)

@"Havoc1649" said: I’ll go a step further than Merrill Hoge after my review of Caleb Williams. Not only do I think he “isn’t special”, I think there’s a better than average chance he’ll bust. He’s going to have to work his tail off to be a viable NFL QB.

Why? His decision making is too slow. He will struggle in structure because of it and in the NFL you have to be able to play within structure to succeed. The ball has to be out on time, accurate, and anticipatory. There is very little sign of any of this in his game tape. The things he does to make uo for these deficiencies - run all over the place, is unlikely to work for long before defensive coordinators force him to beat them from the pocket. That will necessitate much faster processing than he has shown thus far.

His arm talent is exceptional so there is something to work with. As a prospect he isn’t terrible, but taking him in the top 10 is crazy risky. Can he get it together? Possibly, but it’s probably dependent on where he goes. 

My current QB rankings:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Bo Nix
3. JJM
4. Drake Maye
5. Michael Penix
6. Caleb Williams

@"jargomcfargo" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: I’ll go a step further than Merrill Hoge after my review of Caleb Williams. Not only do I think he “isn’t special”, I think there’s a better than average chance he’ll bust. He’s going to have to work his tail off to be a viable NFL QB.

Why? His decision making is too slow. He will struggle in structure because of it and in the NFL you have to be able to play within structure to succeed. The ball has to be out on time, accurate, and anticipatory. There is very little sign of any of this in his game tape. The things he does to make uo for these deficiencies - run all over the place, is unlikely to work for long before defensive coordinators force him to beat them from the pocket. That will necessitate much faster processing than he has shown thus far.

His arm talent is exceptional so there is something to work with. As a prospect he isn’t terrible, but taking him in the top 10 is crazy risky. Can he get it together? Possibly, but it’s probably dependent on where he goes. 

My current QB rankings:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Bo Nix
3. JJM
4. Drake Maye
5. Michael Penix
6. Caleb Williams

Which of these QB's is the fastest processer of the bunch? What stands out to me as a special trait for an NFL QB in addition to all else is rapid processing of the defense after the ball is snapped. Knows what he's looking for. Bang bang bang, one read to the next and getting the ball out when he sees it. That is what CJ Stroud has in addition to his other attributes.
Sometimes when a college QB is lauded for his ability to make plays off script it is because he can't process fast enough to deliver the ball on schedule.
Just wondering what your opinion is since you already see this with Williams?

@"jargomcfargo" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: I’ll go a step further than Merrill Hoge after my review of Caleb Williams. Not only do I think he “isn’t special”, I think there’s a better than average chance he’ll bust. He’s going to have to work his tail off to be a viable NFL QB.

Why? His decision making is too slow. He will struggle in structure because of it and in the NFL you have to be able to play within structure to succeed. The ball has to be out on time, accurate, and anticipatory. There is very little sign of any of this in his game tape. The things he does to make uo for these deficiencies - run all over the place, is unlikely to work for long before defensive coordinators force him to beat them from the pocket. That will necessitate much faster processing than he has shown thus far.

His arm talent is exceptional so there is something to work with. As a prospect he isn’t terrible, but taking him in the top 10 is crazy risky. Can he get it together? Possibly, but it’s probably dependent on where he goes. 

My current QB rankings:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Bo Nix
3. JJM
4. Drake Maye
5. Michael Penix
6. Caleb Williams

Which of these QB's is the fastest processer of the bunch? What stands out to me as a special trait for an NFL QB in addition to all else is rapid processing of the defense after the ball is snapped. Knows what he's looking for. Bang bang bang, one read to the next and getting the ball out when he sees it. That is what CJ Stroud has in addition to his other attributes.
Sometimes when a college QB is lauded for his ability to make plays off script it is because he can't process fast enough to deliver the ball on schedule.
Just wondering what your opinion is since you already see this with Williams?

Does anyone believe (strongly) any one of these QB's has "generational talent" potential?

I think I recall hearing next years crop of Top QB's doesnt compare well to 24.