2024 QB Watch
NFL Rookie Watch@NFLRookieWatxhThe potential 2024 QB draft class absolutely showed OUT in week one.
This QB class could be the best the NFL has EVER seen.
Caleb Williams (USC): 18/24, 319 passing yards, 5 TD’s
Drake Maye (UNC): 24/32, 269 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): 38/47, 510 yards (led country), 4 TD’s
Michael Penix Jr. (UW): 29/40, 450 yards, 5 TD’s
Quinn Ewers (Texas): 19/30, 260 yards, 3 TD’s
JJ McCarthy (Michigan): 26/30, 280 yards, 3 TD’s
Bo Nix (Oregon): 23/27, 287 yards, 3 TD’s
Riley Leonard (Duke): 17/33, 175 yards, 98 rushing yards, 1 TD
Spencer Rattler (SC): 30/39, 353 yards
Joe Milton (Tennessee): 21/30, 201 yards, 4 total TD’s
Jordan Travis (FSU): 23/31, 342 yards, 5 total TD’s
And only ONE of these QB’s came away with a loss
@"Havoc1649" said: JJM and Nix both had great days. Both showed good timing and accuracy. Both also put it out there 60-62 air yards and made it look pretty easy.Penix had a good day. I don’t know if it was him showing less power or JJ and Nix showing more than I expected, but they are all three right around the same arm strength. All show the kind of arm strength you see from the Cousins or Rodgers of the league. Above average NFL arm strength.
Milton with the howitzer, it looked like he hit around 71 yards - getting into Josh Allen range. It’s too bad Milton struggles so much with the rest of QBing. He’s a specimen.
The other guy who surprised was Slovis. I’m going to have to watch his tape. He’s the one other guy with range closer to JJ, Nix, and Penix. The rest of the guys showed at best average arms.
Lastly, the WR group is absolutely stacked.
Slovis is actually an athletic kid, played at USC earlier. Good arm. A smidge on the short side at 6'2", but he's a solid 220+lbs. He's got a NFL body.
@"MaroonBells" said: What he says about himself doesn't mean anything, but one of the reasons I like Penix a little more than most is the fact that at Washington he built into muscle memory the habit of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball on schedule, instead of escaping at the first sign of trouble. I think this will serve him well at the next level.“There’s a lot of people who ask, ‘Why don’t I run?'” Penix said. “I feel like the way I process the defense, and the way I process the game, I do it so quick that I really don’t have to run. I know where to get the ball to and I’m confident in my decisions."
Penix has a great arm to go with that pocket presence of looking downfield. If he were a little thicker and didn't have that injury history, he'd likely be the #2 QB off the board.
@"Havoc1649" said: One other thing I forgot to mention that may bother some about JJ and Maye and it’s their hand size.JJ - 9 inches
Maye - 9 1/8Nix, Penix and Milton have huge hands - all over 10
I don't think hand size is going to move anyone's needle too much. Viking fans especially seem attuned to it after Culpepper, who had small hands and fumbled a lot. But that's probably more a result of being careless with the ball than hand size.
Google: "The prevailing wisdom is that quarterbacks with small hands are more apt to fumble the ball, but if you look at the data, that’s not the case."
@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What he says about himself doesn't mean anything, but one of the reasons I like Penix a little more than most is the fact that at Washington he built into muscle memory the habit of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball on schedule, instead of escaping at the first sign of trouble. I think this will serve him well at the next level.“There’s a lot of people who ask, ‘Why don’t I run?'” Penix said. “I feel like the way I process the defense, and the way I process the game, I do it so quick that I really don’t have to run. I know where to get the ball to and I’m confident in my decisions."
Penix has a great arm to go with that pocket presence of looking downfield. If he were a little thicker and didn't have that injury history, he'd likely be the #2 QB off the board.
Wouldn't surprise me TOO much if Penix ends up the best QB from this draft. JJM is getting a metric shit ton of hype right now. And I do like him as QB4. But I just don't know that there's this huge difference between him, Nix and Penix.In terms of value, I'd probably prefer trading down into one of them than trading future 1sts to move up for JJM, a guy who may or may not be slightly better.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What he says about himself doesn't mean anything, but one of the reasons I like Penix a little more than most is the fact that at Washington he built into muscle memory the habit of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball on schedule, instead of escaping at the first sign of trouble. I think this will serve him well at the next level.“There’s a lot of people who ask, ‘Why don’t I run?'” Penix said. “I feel like the way I process the defense, and the way I process the game, I do it so quick that I really don’t have to run. I know where to get the ball to and I’m confident in my decisions."
Penix has a great arm to go with that pocket presence of looking downfield. If he were a little thicker and didn't have that injury history, he'd likely be the #2 QB off the board.
Wouldn't surprise me TOO much if Penix ends up the best QB from this draft. JJM is getting a metric shit ton of hype right now. And I do like him as QB4. But I just don't know that there's this huge difference between him, Nix and Penix.In terms of value, I'd probably prefer trading down into one of them than trading future 1sts to move up for JJM, a guy who may or may not be slightly better.
This is where I'm trending toward. I really like JJM, but I like him much better just staying at #11 and grabbing him. The unknown is how the Vikings have their QB board laid out. Hell, just how NFL GMs have their QBs ranked because all we are reading/seeing is the online 'Draft experts'. Might be some surprises there.Penix is also an underrated athlete: faster than JJM, 10 yard split times very close, vertical jump farther than both Daniels and JJM. If he could even put on 5 lbs. of functional muscle and be just under 220 lbs., his arm is electric.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"Havoc1649" said: One other thing I forgot to mention that may bother some about JJ and Maye and it’s their hand size.JJ - 9 inches
Maye - 9 1/8Nix, Penix and Milton have huge hands - all over 10
I don't think hand size is going to move anyone's needle too much. Viking fans especially seem attuned to it after Culpepper, who had small hands and fumbled a lot. But that's probably more a result of being careless with the ball than hand size.
Google: "The prevailing wisdom is that quarterbacks with small hands are more apt to fumble the ball, but if you look at the data, that’s not the case."
It does for some crazy reason. I don’t think it matters on iota. I read a study that said the length of a players last name had a stronger correlation with fumbles than hand size
Is Williams shit an effort to devalue himself a bit to avoid getting taken by the teams at the too of the draft to try and get himself into a better situation out of the gate? Have a hard time believing that he would do and say all the wrong things. Granted he is the assumed #1 overall so he has very little to gain, but something seems off with his approach pre draft.
If he shows up in a tic toc with a gas mask i will have my answer.
@"supafreak84" said: JJ has looked good throwing today. Joe Milton stealing the show with his howitzerMilton only stole the show for those that didn't watch much Vols FB this year. He is fools gold IMO. I wanted to like him as much as I do Penix, but just to much inconsistency to his game IMO.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What he says about himself doesn't mean anything, but one of the reasons I like Penix a little more than most is the fact that at Washington he built into muscle memory the habit of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball on schedule, instead of escaping at the first sign of trouble. I think this will serve him well at the next level.“There’s a lot of people who ask, ‘Why don’t I run?'” Penix said. “I feel like the way I process the defense, and the way I process the game, I do it so quick that I really don’t have to run. I know where to get the ball to and I’m confident in my decisions."
Penix has a great arm to go with that pocket presence of looking downfield. If he were a little thicker and didn't have that injury history, he'd likely be the #2 QB off the board.
Wouldn't surprise me TOO much if Penix ends up the best QB from this draft. JJM is getting a metric shit ton of hype right now. And I do like him as QB4. But I just don't know that there's this huge difference between him, Nix and Penix.In terms of value, I'd probably prefer trading down into one of them than trading future 1sts to move up for JJM, a guy who may or may not be slightly better.
My concern with trading down is you show your ass at that point and now invite everyone more teams into the range of being able to leap frog your and scoop your guy up. If they like a guy, then take the guy, if he turns out to be what you thought nobody comes back in 3 years and says he was over drafted, if he fails he fails and if you didn't come up with a backup plan you are likely out the door regardless.Imo at this point QBOTF is to big a moment to play Russian roulette where all you gain is a mid to late day 2 pick. We know who the players are in the top half that need a QB upgrade, it gets cloudier to try and guess who in the next wave of teams may be looking ahead ala the Packers with Rogers and Love.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"supafreak84" said: JJ has looked good throwing today. Joe Milton stealing the show with his howitzer Milton only stole the show for those that didn't watch much Vols FB this year. He is fools gold IMO. I wanted to like him as much as I do Penix, but just to much inconsistency to his game IMO.
100%. About as accurate as Barney Fife. He's a freak for the position, he played at Michigan so I got a nice close look. But IMO he'll never sniff being a starter in the NFL.
@"Havoc1649" said: One other thing I forgot to mention that may bother some about JJ and Maye and it’s their hand size.JJ - 9 inches
Maye - 9 1/8Nix, Penix and Milton have huge hands - all over 10
Lol..
What a surprise... =)
Milton has a Howitzer for an arm. But his performance at the Senior Bowl may have been the worst I've ever seen. He reminds me of a slower, less athletic Logan Thomas, who was drafted as a QB some years ago, moved to TE and was just released on Friday.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What he says about himself doesn't mean anything, but one of the reasons I like Penix a little more than most is the fact that at Washington he built into muscle memory the habit of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball on schedule, instead of escaping at the first sign of trouble. I think this will serve him well at the next level.“There’s a lot of people who ask, ‘Why don’t I run?'” Penix said. “I feel like the way I process the defense, and the way I process the game, I do it so quick that I really don’t have to run. I know where to get the ball to and I’m confident in my decisions."
Penix has a great arm to go with that pocket presence of looking downfield. If he were a little thicker and didn't have that injury history, he'd likely be the #2 QB off the board.
Wouldn't surprise me TOO much if Penix ends up the best QB from this draft. JJM is getting a metric shit ton of hype right now. And I do like him as QB4. But I just don't know that there's this huge difference between him, Nix and Penix.In terms of value, I'd probably prefer trading down into one of them than trading future 1sts to move up for JJM, a guy who may or may not be slightly better.
To me the biggest difference between the 3 is that JJM just turned 21, whereas Nix & Penix are 24. You can sit JJM on the bench for 2 years & he would still only be 23 when he takes over.
I see Seattle hired Penix’s OC from Washington(college), I wonder if they’re after him…?
@"Knucklehead" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What he says about himself doesn't mean anything, but one of the reasons I like Penix a little more than most is the fact that at Washington he built into muscle memory the habit of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball on schedule, instead of escaping at the first sign of trouble. I think this will serve him well at the next level.“There’s a lot of people who ask, ‘Why don’t I run?'” Penix said. “I feel like the way I process the defense, and the way I process the game, I do it so quick that I really don’t have to run. I know where to get the ball to and I’m confident in my decisions."
Penix has a great arm to go with that pocket presence of looking downfield. If he were a little thicker and didn't have that injury history, he'd likely be the #2 QB off the board.
Wouldn't surprise me TOO much if Penix ends up the best QB from this draft. JJM is getting a metric shit ton of hype right now. And I do like him as QB4. But I just don't know that there's this huge difference between him, Nix and Penix.In terms of value, I'd probably prefer trading down into one of them than trading future 1sts to move up for JJM, a guy who may or may not be slightly better.
To me the biggest difference between the 3 is that JJM just turned 21, whereas Nix & Penix are 24. You can sit JJM on the bench for 2 years & he would still only be 23 when he takes over.
I think the appeal of a younger guy is that you can maybe get him mid-development as opposed to a guy who might already be everything he's going to be. But at the end of the day, they can either play or they can't, so a QB who's three years older isn't a deal breaker for me. I don't know how true this is, but there are rumors the Broncos drafted Brock Osweiler over Russell Wilson in part because he was two years younger.I do think it matters to Kwesi tho. I think he even said something about that in Indy.
@"Knucklehead" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What he says about himself doesn't mean anything, but one of the reasons I like Penix a little more than most is the fact that at Washington he built into muscle memory the habit of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball on schedule, instead of escaping at the first sign of trouble. I think this will serve him well at the next level.“There’s a lot of people who ask, ‘Why don’t I run?'” Penix said. “I feel like the way I process the defense, and the way I process the game, I do it so quick that I really don’t have to run. I know where to get the ball to and I’m confident in my decisions."
Penix has a great arm to go with that pocket presence of looking downfield. If he were a little thicker and didn't have that injury history, he'd likely be the #2 QB off the board.
Wouldn't surprise me TOO much if Penix ends up the best QB from this draft. JJM is getting a metric shit ton of hype right now. And I do like him as QB4. But I just don't know that there's this huge difference between him, Nix and Penix.In terms of value, I'd probably prefer trading down into one of them than trading future 1sts to move up for JJM, a guy who may or may not be slightly better.
To me the biggest difference between the 3 is that JJM just turned 21, whereas Nix & Penix are 24. You can sit JJM on the bench for 2 years & he would still only be 23 when he takes over.
I think QB and OL are positions that you say F the age, they are both positions that play at a good level until their mid 30s, if I can get quality play out of a draft pick, I dont really care if its 10 or 12 years. If JJM is the man KAM hangs his career on, I am all in, but if he takes Nix or Penix, I support that as well. Just to much bust potential from any top QB pick to really get hung up on how many years they may or may not play if they do indeed pan out.Or.... think of it this way, JJM needs a year or two to mature into a starter by many pundits calculations, however Penix and Nix likely have a much shorter window to start contributing at a high level if they do indeed pan out. so what you gain on the back end with JJ, you gain on the front end with Penix and Nix.
I like the idea of trading down a little for extra picks and drafting Latu or Chop Robinson, then figuring out a way to package some picks and move back into the late first if Nix or Penix are still available but what if you can't find a willing trade partner? That is my biggest fear of taking that risk. If JJM falls to 11, I take him. I'm just not sure he is worth giving up a lot of picks to move up ahead of Atlanta and the Giants who have more to offer than we do. If Atlanta signs Kirk then that is one less team we need to worry about, but the Giants are the sleeper team that scares me the most to poach a QB we have targeted. They are only tied to Jones for 2024 the way his contract is structured.
@"TBro" said: I like the idea of trading down a little for extra picks and drafting Latu or Chop Robinson, then figuring out a way to package some picks and move back into the late first if Nix or Penix are still available but what if you can't find a willing trade partner? That is my biggest fear of taking that risk. If JJM falls to 11, I take him. I'm just not sure he is worth giving up a lot of picks to move up ahead of Atlanta and the Giants who have more to offer than we do. If Atlanta signs Kirk then that is one less team we need to worry about, but the Giants are the sleeper team that scares me the most to poach a QB we have targeted. They are only tied to Jones for 2024 the way his contract is structured.I think the Broncos are a contender for a top 4 qb too...
Giants did themselves a solid with how they structured Jones' deal. I dont think its that tough for them to get out of it after 24.
It would not surprise me if the Top 4 (including JJM) are gone by 11. Then it a matter of how highly they think of Penix or Nix vs one the remaining Edge's.
@"purplefaithful" said:@"TBro" said: I like the idea of trading down a little for extra picks and drafting Latu or Chop Robinson, then figuring out a way to package some picks and move back into the late first if Nix or Penix are still available but what if you can't find a willing trade partner? That is my biggest fear of taking that risk. If JJM falls to 11, I take him. I'm just not sure he is worth giving up a lot of picks to move up ahead of Atlanta and the Giants who have more to offer than we do. If Atlanta signs Kirk then that is one less team we need to worry about, but the Giants are the sleeper team that scares me the most to poach a QB we have targeted. They are only tied to Jones for 2024 the way his contract is structured. I think the Broncos are a contender for a top 4 qb too...Giants did themselves a solid with how they structured Jones' deal. I dont think its that tough for them to get out of it after 24.
It would not surprise me if the Top 4 (including JJM) are gone by 11. Then it a matter of how highly they think of Penix or Nix vs one the remaining Edge's.
The irony is that if Cousins doesn't sign with Atlanta, they will almost certainly be our biggest competition for one of the picks in the top 5 for a QB. Denver and Vegas have too far to go and I don't believe they would trade for Fields over an opportunity to draft one of the top 4 QB.But if he doesn't sign with Atlanta I think that means he probably signed with us, making a settling for Nix or Penix maybe a little more tolerable.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said:@"TBro" said: I like the idea of trading down a little for extra picks and drafting Latu or Chop Robinson, then figuring out a way to package some picks and move back into the late first if Nix or Penix are still available but what if you can't find a willing trade partner? That is my biggest fear of taking that risk. If JJM falls to 11, I take him. I'm just not sure he is worth giving up a lot of picks to move up ahead of Atlanta and the Giants who have more to offer than we do. If Atlanta signs Kirk then that is one less team we need to worry about, but the Giants are the sleeper team that scares me the most to poach a QB we have targeted. They are only tied to Jones for 2024 the way his contract is structured. I think the Broncos are a contender for a top 4 qb too...Giants did themselves a solid with how they structured Jones' deal. I dont think its that tough for them to get out of it after 24.
It would not surprise me if the Top 4 (including JJM) are gone by 11. Then it a matter of how highly they think of Penix or Nix vs one the remaining Edge's.
The irony is that if Cousins doesn't sign with Atlanta, they will almost certainly be our biggest competition for one of the picks in the top 5 for a QB. Denver and Vegas have too far to go and I don't believe they would trade for Fields over an opportunity to draft one of the top 4 QB.But if he doesn't sign with Atlanta I think that means he probably signed with us, making a settling for Nix or Penix maybe a little more tolerable.
Why is that? They are likely the most day 1 ready of the QBs in the draft, also a big knock against them has been their age, resigning Cousins only likely makes them 2 years older before they are contributing. I would tend to think the other way, if you have cousins back, presumably on a 2 to 3 year deal, why waste a top pick on a QB that will be 26 before getting a chance? If I sign Cousins I am spending heavy in FA to put veterans around him, then using some draft capital to get JJ to mentor. If I dont want JJ, then I skip Cousins and get a bridge guy like Browner ( who is still young enough to maybe be more than a place holder) and going with one of the more race ready QB draft picks at 11.
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