Where will Kirk end up?

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"supafreak84" said: Tannenbaum on ESPN this morning thinks Kirk will get a contract offer in the realm of 35 to 40 million a year, but won't be fully guaranteed due to age and injury. Thinks the Vikings have a line in the sand and will make him their best and final offer prior to the owners meetings so they know where they are prior to free agency. Thinks Atlanta is by far the best alternate fit and that if Cousons gets a fully guaranteed deal he should be inducted into the sports business Hall of Fame lol. 

Jeff Darlington thinks Kirk is a goner and goes to Atlanta 

I think the money will be roughly the same. The market is the market. So I'll say what I've been saying for two months: for Kirk it will come down to Atlanta (or whoever) for 3 years or the Vikings for 2. 

I don't think there's a market for him beyond Minnesota and Atlanta in a real way and even if there were, I think these are the only 2 opportunities he would seriously consider. Its not like the Falcons have a shit team, they don't. Kirk's wife was born and raised in Atlanta and went to the University of Georgia in Athens, so this is a real choice if Atlanta is truly interested. But although I much prefer getting Cousins back in Minnesota, my line in the sand is no 3-year contract and the whole thing can't be guaranteed. 

The combine will be pretty interesting to see how the market shapes up. Since there is no binary in/out it'll be interesting to see where the conversations start vs. where the Vikings line in the sand is. Would Pitt, NE, LV get involved somewhere in the middle if the reality is less than the initial ask? MNs offer is probably flexible in dollars but it'll be a single guaranteed year (2024) with partial guarantees in 2025. 

Geoff, any perspectives (or reckless speculation) to share regarding how much the Vikings are prioritizing a rook QB this season?

How they may end up stacking their board?

At a bank teller window depositing an 8-figure check  B)

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"supafreak84" said: Tannenbaum on ESPN this morning thinks Kirk will get a contract offer in the realm of 35 to 40 million a year, but won't be fully guaranteed due to age and injury. Thinks the Vikings have a line in the sand and will make him their best and final offer prior to the owners meetings so they know where they are prior to free agency. Thinks Atlanta is by far the best alternate fit and that if Cousons gets a fully guaranteed deal he should be inducted into the sports business Hall of Fame lol. 

Jeff Darlington thinks Kirk is a goner and goes to Atlanta 

I think the money will be roughly the same. The market is the market. So I'll say what I've been saying for two months: for Kirk it will come down to Atlanta (or whoever) for 3 years or the Vikings for 2. 

I don't think there's a market for him beyond Minnesota and Atlanta in a real way and even if there were, I think these are the only 2 opportunities he would seriously consider. Its not like the Falcons have a shit team, they don't. Kirk's wife was born and raised in Atlanta and went to the University of Georgia in Athens, so this is a real choice if Atlanta is truly interested. But although I much prefer getting Cousins back in Minnesota, my line in the sand is no 3-year contract and the whole thing can't be guaranteed. 

The combine will be pretty interesting to see how the market shapes up. Since there is no binary in/out it'll be interesting to see where the conversations start vs. where the Vikings line in the sand is. Would Pitt, NE, LV get involved somewhere in the middle if the reality is less than the initial ask? MNs offer is probably flexible in dollars but it'll be a single guaranteed year (2024) with partial guarantees in 2025. 

Geoff, any perspectives (or reckless speculation) to share regarding how much the Vikings are prioritizing a rook QB this season?

How they may end up stacking their board?

I don't know how they're stacking the board, but I do know that they're very interested in finding a long-term QBOF and cost won't be a deterrent for them. But it has to be someone they love. I also don't think they planned to cutover to a rookie cold-turkey which is why the Kirk situation has been so intriguing. They'll let the Kirk situation play itself out, but if he walks I'd expect them to be incredibly aggressive in pursuing a QB in April. 

To answer the question “where will Kirk end up”?....

The bank.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"purplefaithful" said: Here is what Florio had to say of Minnesota’s approach to the Cousins negotiation:

The Vikings are playing a dangerous game of chicken here if they want him. Maybe they don’t and they’re looking for a way to ease out of it. But if they want him, Zygi, Mark, Kevin, Kwesi, you’re going to blow it. You need to get it done now. You definitely need to get it done before Mike McCartney, his agent, goes to Indianapolis and has all the tampering meetings that we know are going to occur. Because he’s going to come out of Indy knowing exactly what the Falcons will pay, exactly what anyone else will pay and it’s going to be too late. I guarantee you. You got 10 days, Vikings. You got 10 days. The clock is ticking. You got 10 days. If you wait, Kirk’s going to be gone. And if you don’t want him, that’s fine. But if you want him, you better get your asses moving.

That 10-day timeframe to get the deal done has now dwindled to just one week with the NFL scouting combine set to begin next Monday on February 26th. Cousins, who is coming off an Achilles injury in 2023, is set to enter free agency for the first time since signing with the Vikings back in 2018. Since then, he has ensured that he continuously has guaranteed contracts in place.

https://purpleptsd.com/2024/vikings/opinion/nfl-analyst-vikings/

Florio speaks as if this is a one-sided negotiation. It's also possible that the Vikings are NOT sitting on their hands, have made their best offer, and Kirk just wants to see if another team is willing to offer more guaranteed or a longer term. I mean...isn't this possible as well? 

The Cousins free agency saga is the NFL story of the offseason. I still have to believe the Vikings have a hard line in the sand and Kirk probably gets a better offer from another team. 

Yep, I think so....at least about a hard line from the Vikings. 

We'll find out what Kirk is really all about and if he really is true to his word that he wants to be a Viking and would take less money to do so. Nothing about the way he has operated his entire career would lead me believe that there is any validity to that and you know there will be a team or two that come at him with bigger contract offers..

...except for the fact that this is exactly what he did the last time he was a free agent. 

@"StickyBun" said: And this is with missing games last year:

Most passing touchdowns of 10+ yards from 2020-2023:

1. Josh Allen 72
2. Justin Herbert 59
3. Russell Wilson 58
4. Kirk Cousins 55
5. Aaron Rodgers 52
6. Joe Burrow 50
7. Patrick Mahomes 48#BillsMafia #JoshAllen pic.twitter.com/s27ByamnON

— Dave Myers BIB (@DaveMyersBIB) February 21, 2024

Every QB on this list has missed games during this timeframe. Some more than Kirk. 

I saw a guess today on a new deal for Cousins that was not completely insane,  3 years 100 million with 75 guaranteed,   avg 33 per year isnt terrible IMO.  its sucks that his cap hit would be nearly 50 million for the next 2 years,  but the dead money is going to be there regardless.  If he would stay on at 33 avg and they could make that work without pushing anything into unplayed years I wouldnt hate it.

@"JimmyinSD" said: I saw a guess today on a new deal for Cousins that was not completely insane,  3 years 100 million with 75 guaranteed,   avg 33 per year isnt terrible IMO.  its sucks that his cap hit would be nearly 50 million for the next 2 years,  but the dead money is going to be there regardless.  If he would stay on at 33 avg and they could make that work without pushing anything into unplayed years I wouldnt hate it.

PFF estimates 2 years/$70M, $50 Guaranteed. So basically, if we can get a QB this year in the draft and he shows some promise, it'd be 1 year, $50M and then move on and eat his dead cap for a few years. Or he balls out and you have either a bargain in year two or most likely, a renegotiation.

I think KAM would entertain these terms. The problem would be if we need to trade a haul to move up and get said QB. At that point you're bereft of elite picks and using most of your cap space on Kirk. So you're basically running it back. If they think they're close when healthy, I can see the temptation. If not then you may as well move on from Kirk and use that cap space on Hunter and other upgrades defensively, who will be around longer than one year. As most of us have said, it's a tough call.

You either sign him now, or let him walk in Free Agency. The Vikings aren't stupid enough to let all of his $28.5m dead cap hit go against this year's cap, and then try to sign him to a deal after that. You either get a deal done so you can spread that cap number over the next 2-3 years or move on. 

@"TBro" said: You either sign him now, or let him walk in Free Agency. The Vikings aren't stupid enough to let all of his $28.5m dead cap hit go against this year's cap, and then try to sign him to a deal after that. You either get a deal done so you can spread that cap number over the next 2-3 years or move on. 

Its possible to make the cap implications (with the dead money) similar in 2024/25. But its not ideal since you'd only be pushing money into the future to make that possible. E.G you just take the dead money now and move it to 2026 in a different way. But the catch-22 is if they want to re-sign Kirk and keep his cap hits lower they'll be doing some of that anyways. Ideal to get a deal done before the contract voids. But I guess there is some world where they could still work something out. 

@"kmillard" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"supafreak84" said: Tannenbaum on ESPN this morning thinks Kirk will get a contract offer in the realm of 35 to 40 million a year, but won't be fully guaranteed due to age and injury. Thinks the Vikings have a line in the sand and will make him their best and final offer prior to the owners meetings so they know where they are prior to free agency. Thinks Atlanta is by far the best alternate fit and that if Cousons gets a fully guaranteed deal he should be inducted into the sports business Hall of Fame lol. 

Jeff Darlington thinks Kirk is a goner and goes to Atlanta 

I think the money will be roughly the same. The market is the market. So I'll say what I've been saying for two months: for Kirk it will come down to Atlanta (or whoever) for 3 years or the Vikings for 2. 

I don't think there's a market for him beyond Minnesota and Atlanta in a real way and even if there were, I think these are the only 2 opportunities he would seriously consider. Its not like the Falcons have a shit team, they don't. Kirk's wife was born and raised in Atlanta and went to the University of Georgia in Athens, so this is a real choice if Atlanta is truly interested. But although I much prefer getting Cousins back in Minnesota, my line in the sand is no 3-year contract and the whole thing can't be guaranteed. 

The combine will be pretty interesting to see how the market shapes up. Since there is no binary in/out it'll be interesting to see where the conversations start vs. where the Vikings line in the sand is. Would Pitt, NE, LV get involved somewhere in the middle if the reality is less than the initial ask? MNs offer is probably flexible in dollars but it'll be a single guaranteed year (2024) with partial guarantees in 2025. 

Geoff, any perspectives (or reckless speculation) to share regarding how much the Vikings are prioritizing a rook QB this season?

How they may end up stacking their board?

I don't know how they're stacking the board, but I do know that they're very interested in finding a long-term QBOF and cost won't be a deterrent for them. But it has to be someone they love. I also don't think they planned to cutover to a rookie cold-turkey which is why the Kirk situation has been so intriguing. They'll let the Kirk situation play itself out, but if he walks I'd expect them to be incredibly aggressive in pursuing a QB in April. 

I wonder if they will ever find someone they love. That is the big question.

As of 2/23/24:
Kirk Cousins' Next Team Odds

Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

That seems awfully high given age/injury.

But maybe things have flipped that quickly? The cap increase imo was massive.

Cost to keep DH has probably gone up too...

 I am going to be one grouchy MF'er if we end-up losing both...And put some salt in the wound too if that happens; I gotta write a check for season tix by mos end. 

@"purplefaithful" said: As of 2/23/24: Kirk Cousins' Next Team Odds

Team	Odds	Implied Probability
Las Vegas Raiders	+325	23.5%
Atlanta Falcons	+350	22.2%
New England Patriots	+450	18.2%
Minnesota Vikings	+650	13.3%
Washington Commanders	+1000	9.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers	+1400	6.7%
Seattle Seahawks	+1500	6.3%
Denver Broncos	+1800	5.3%
The Field	+600	14.3%

https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/kirk-cousins-next-team-odds

This doesn't make any sense. I don't get the Raiders leading this. Kirk's a free agent, meaning he can sign with whomever he wants. I doubt the Raiders are one of those teams. And he sure as hell isn't going to sign with the Patriots, who have a terrible OL and no weapons. They are going to be historically bad in 24.

I still think it's a two-team race between the Falcons and Vikings. 

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal. 

If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year. 

Yeah Kirko is fine, now onto contract negotiations pic.twitter.com/7jCJkrEzoS

— Ivan, Czar of Bohunks (@Up4Discussion_7) February 26, 2024

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/Up4Discussion_7/status/1762142245883392347?s=20

Right on que...I would have expected nothing less from McCartney.

I am glad to see Kirko seemingly progressing well though.

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/Up4Discussion_7/status/1762142245883392347?s=20

Right on que...I would have expected nothing less from McCartney.

I am glad to see Kirko seemingly progressing well though.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/Up4Discussion_7/status/1762142245883392347?s=20

Right on que...I would have expected nothing less from McCartney.

I am glad to see Kirko seemingly progressing well though.

He says he's still a couple months away and you can see some short stepping in his drops, but I don't think there's any doubt he's going to be ready by training camp.