Tis the season of throwing s#$% against the wall

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"purplefaithful" said: Man! There is a lot of everything out there.

 I hope they are able to keep KC a few more seasons, cause I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of getting one of the top 4 at #11. 

I have a growing suspicion of Verse and Minschew replacing DH and KC on the roster 

 How does that fire up the fan in you?

 

I'm 100% all about Verse & I can live with Minshew for a season as long as we also draft our QBOTF to sit behind him.

I'm still traumatized about Fl State DE's drafted by the Vikings lol!

 How do you envision acquiring Verse and a QBOTF in this off-season?

 IMO its one or the other. NO QBOTF this year with an Edge @ 11. 

I'm glad that you asked me this because I've put some thought into it & you're also allowing me to prove to everyone on this board that I'm just some knucklehead sitting behind a keyboard & not a NFL GM.
First, I was intrigued by Matt Miller's article on ESPN that said that there are only 16 players in this draft w/ true 1st round grades. I want to leave the 1st round w/ one of those players. If you assume that the top 3 QBs will be gone & assume that we're not going to draft a WR, OT, CB or Brock Bowers at No. 11, that leaves the Edges Verse & Turner & the IDL Murphy.
The key to my entire draft depends on at least 2 of them being available at #11 which allows me to execute a small trade down to pick up a 3rd round pick.
I'm now looking to trade back up into the 1st round to draft Nix or Penix. This is where not having our 3rd round pick hurts us because using the Rich Hill value chart we would have to trade our 2nd round pick both this year & next or our 2nd round pick this year plus our highest 4th round pick & other pick(s) depending on how high we want to trade up. I don't like either of these scenarios, but because I've picked up an additional 3rd, the trade up becomes more palatable.

Now, let's assume that all 6 QBs were drafted in the 1st round & we missed out entirely. In that case I'm targeting the position that I didn't fill at #11, Edge or IDL & would also consider OC. JPJ, Graham Barton & Zach Frazier will probably be gone but Sedrick Van Pran of UGA will be there & I can probably trade down in the 2nd round & pick up an additional pick.
Because this is the deepest QB draft in recent years & will be deeper than the 2025 draft, I refuse to leave it w/o drafting a QB. Spencer Rattler come on down. I have no idea if Rattler is a fit w/ KOC's offense but at the very least he has a higher ceiling as a backup than Hall.
So my potential draft looks like this:
1a) Verse/Turner/Murphy1b) Nix/Penix
or
1) Verse/Turner/Murphy2) Edge/IDL/OC3) Rattler

Well played! 

I really think it would be a shame if we couldn't walk out of this draft w/out taking a bigger swing on a QB than Rattler. I would much rather address DL with FA and/or a 2nd rd pick. 

Personally, I dont think JJM gets past Giants (I agree with @Tbro on this one) nor do I think Nix makes it past Denver. He's got the traits Payton looks for and was used to seeing with Brees. Yah, I just compared the two lol! 

If this is the case? We have to trade up to #5 (Chargers) for JJM or grab Nix or Penix @ 11. 

@"CFIAvike" said:

Kirk Cousins, was brought along at the same time as RG3.  Purdy was at the same time as Lance,  I'm sure there are more but I'm not going to chase it.  I'm guessing there are plenty of teams that wished they wouldn't have waited so long to bring in another young QB when they had one that didn't pan out.

Hindsight is always 20/20. The problem with your argument is every team, when they take a QB high, is fully planning on him being the face of the franchise. 

Cousins getting taken in the 4th the same year as RG3 is the only time I can ever recall a team “doubling down” on a QB. Purdy was taken with the last pick in the draft. There’s absolutely no way they were planning on Purdy being anything other than a coin flip developmental guy when he was taken. 

Teams are going to give a QB at least 2-3 years to develop when they spend a high draft pick on them. You move on from a 4th rounder in one year (ala Jaren Hall), you don’t punt a first or second rounder after half a season. 

Did anyone notice that Seattle hired Penix's QB coach at the U. of Washington, Ryan Grubb, to be their new OC? Seattle owns the 16th pick. They have no 2nd round pick (traded to NYG at the deadline for Leonard Williams). Geno Smith is in the final year of his contract. Their back up QB is Drew Lock who is an UFA.
It's possible that 6 QBs will be off the board by pick #16.

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"purplefaithful" said: Man! There is a lot of everything out there.

 I hope they are able to keep KC a few more seasons, cause I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of getting one of the top 4 at #11. 

I have a growing suspicion of Verse and Minschew replacing DH and KC on the roster 

 How does that fire up the fan in you?

 

I'm 100% all about Verse & I can live with Minshew for a season as long as we also draft our QBOTF to sit behind him.

I'm still traumatized about Fl State DE's drafted by the Vikings lol!

 How do you envision acquiring Verse and a QBOTF in this off-season?

 IMO its one or the other. NO QBOTF this year with an Edge @ 11. 

I'm glad that you asked me this because I've put some thought into it & you're also allowing me to prove to everyone on this board that I'm just some knucklehead sitting behind a keyboard & not a NFL GM.
First, I was intrigued by Matt Miller's article on ESPN that said that there are only 16 players in this draft w/ true 1st round grades. I want to leave the 1st round w/ one of those players. If you assume that the top 3 QBs will be gone & assume that we're not going to draft a WR, OT, CB or Brock Bowers at No. 11, that leaves the Edges Verse & Turner & the IDL Murphy.
The key to my entire draft depends on at least 2 of them being available at #11 which allows me to execute a small trade down to pick up a 3rd round pick.
I'm now looking to trade back up into the 1st round to draft Nix or Penix. This is where not having our 3rd round pick hurts us because using the Rich Hill value chart we would have to trade our 2nd round pick both this year & next or our 2nd round pick this year plus our highest 4th round pick & other pick(s) depending on how high we want to trade up. I don't like either of these scenarios, but because I've picked up an additional 3rd, the trade up becomes more palatable.

Now, let's assume that all 6 QBs were drafted in the 1st round & we missed out entirely. In that case I'm targeting the position that I didn't fill at #11, Edge or IDL & would also consider OC. JPJ, Graham Barton & Zach Frazier will probably be gone but Sedrick Van Pran of UGA will be there & I can probably trade down in the 2nd round & pick up an additional pick.
Because this is the deepest QB draft in recent years & will be deeper than the 2025 draft, I refuse to leave it w/o drafting a QB. Spencer Rattler come on down. I have no idea if Rattler is a fit w/ KOC's offense but at the very least he has a higher ceiling as a backup than Hall.
So my potential draft looks like this:
1a) Verse/Turner/Murphy1b) Nix/Penix
or
1) Verse/Turner/Murphy2) Edge/IDL/OC3) Rattler

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"purplefaithful" said: Man! There is a lot of everything out there.

 I hope they are able to keep KC a few more seasons, cause I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of getting one of the top 4 at #11. 

I have a growing suspicion of Verse and Minschew replacing DH and KC on the roster 

 How does that fire up the fan in you?

 

I'm 100% all about Verse & I can live with Minshew for a season as long as we also draft our QBOTF to sit behind him.

I'm still traumatized about Fl State DE's drafted by the Vikings lol!

 How do you envision acquiring Verse and a QBOTF in this off-season?

 IMO its one or the other. NO QBOTF this year with an Edge @ 11. 

I'm glad that you asked me this because I've put some thought into it & you're also allowing me to prove to everyone on this board that I'm just some knucklehead sitting behind a keyboard & not a NFL GM.
First, I was intrigued by Matt Miller's article on ESPN that said that there are only 16 players in this draft w/ true 1st round grades. I want to leave the 1st round w/ one of those players. If you assume that the top 3 QBs will be gone & assume that we're not going to draft a WR, OT, CB or Brock Bowers at No. 11, that leaves the Edges Verse & Turner & the IDL Murphy.
The key to my entire draft depends on at least 2 of them being available at #11 which allows me to execute a small trade down to pick up a 3rd round pick.
I'm now looking to trade back up into the 1st round to draft Nix or Penix. This is where not having our 3rd round pick hurts us because using the Rich Hill value chart we would have to trade our 2nd round pick both this year & next or our 2nd round pick this year plus our highest 4th round pick & other pick(s) depending on how high we want to trade up. I don't like either of these scenarios, but because I've picked up an additional 3rd, the trade up becomes more palatable.

Now, let's assume that all 6 QBs were drafted in the 1st round & we missed out entirely. In that case I'm targeting the position that I didn't fill at #11, Edge or IDL & would also consider OC. JPJ, Graham Barton & Zach Frazier will probably be gone but Sedrick Van Pran of UGA will be there & I can probably trade down in the 2nd round & pick up an additional pick.
Because this is the deepest QB draft in recent years & will be deeper than the 2025 draft, I refuse to leave it w/o drafting a QB. Spencer Rattler come on down. I have no idea if Rattler is a fit w/ KOC's offense but at the very least he has a higher ceiling as a backup than Hall.
So my potential draft looks like this:
1a) Verse/Turner/Murphy1b) Nix/Penix
or
1) Verse/Turner/Murphy2) Edge/IDL/OC3) Rattler

Well played! 

I really think it would be a shame if we couldn't walk out of this draft w/out taking a bigger swing on a QB than Rattler. I would much rather address DL with FA and/or a 2nd rd pick. 

Personally, I dont think JJM gets past Giants (I agree with @Tbro on this one) nor do I think Nix makes it past Denver. He's got the traits Payton looks for and was used to seeing with Brees. Yah, I just compared the two lol! 

If this is the case? We have to trade up to #5 (Chargers) for JJM or grab Nix or Penix @ 11. 

This is really the worst case scenario (unless the pick actually pans out).  We’re forced to either trade up for a lesser QB or reach at 11 because we’re afraid the table scraps won’t last until the second round. 

It’s literally Christian Ponder all over again

I think some fans are falling into the same trap every year: media says QBs will go fast and early + fans drink that Kool Aid = QBs don't go fast and early. 

@"StickyBun" said: I think some fans are falling into the same trap every year: media says QBs will go fast and early + fans drink that Kool Aid = QBs don't go fast and early. 

Caleb and Daniels will go 1 and 2. Someone will trade up for Maye and he'll go at either 5 or 6. McCarthy is getting mocked in the top 10 because a handful of teams have him ranked much higher than everyone else because he fits what they do (see Vikings). But if those teams don't pick in the top 10, or if they go another direction, he will drop a ways. And maybe a long ways. 

Nix and Penix are 2nd round values, but both will be taken in the mid to late 1st due to need and the 5th year option. All six go in the 1st round. The big wild card is JJ McCarthy. He could go top 5 or drop to the bottom of the 1st. No one else has that range of outcomes IMO. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"StickyBun" said: I think some fans are falling into the same trap every year: media says QBs will go fast and early + fans drink that Kool Aid = QBs don't go fast and early. 

I've looked into the future and this is what will happen....

Caleb and Daniels will go 1 and 2. Someone will trade up for Maye and he'll go at either 5 or 6. McCarthy is getting mocked in the top 10 because a handful of teams have him ranked much higher than everyone else because he fits what they do (see Vikings). But if those teams don't pick in the top 10, or if they go another direction, he will drop a ways. And maybe a long ways. 

Nix and Penix are 2nd round values, but both will be taken in the mid to late 1st due to need and the 5th year option. All six go in the 1st round. The big wild card is JJ McCarthy. He could go top 5 or drop to the bottom of the 1st. No one else has that range of outcomes IMO. 

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"StickyBun" said: I think some fans are falling into the same trap every year: media says QBs will go fast and early + fans drink that Kool Aid = QBs don't go fast and early. 

I've looked into the future and this is what will happen....

Caleb and Daniels will go 1 and 2. Someone will trade up for Maye and he'll go at either 5 or 6. McCarthy is getting mocked in the top 10 because a handful of teams have him ranked much higher than everyone else because he fits what they do (see Vikings). But if those teams don't pick in the top 10, or if they go another direction, he will drop a ways. And maybe a long ways. 

Nix and Penix are 2nd round values, but both will be taken in the mid to late 1st due to need and the 5th year option. All six go in the 1st round. The big wild card is JJ McCarthy. He could go top 5 or drop to the bottom of the 1st. No one else has that range of outcomes IMO. 

Pretty good guess here, IMO. I projected 5 first round QBs yesterday. But 6 in the top 15?? Nope. 

@"StickyBun" said: I think some fans are falling into the same trap every year: media says QBs will go fast and early + fans drink that Kool Aid = QBs don't go fast and early. 

We all know that QBs are often over drafted because that position is the most important on the team, but agreed, last year the draft pundits had Levis as a top 10 pick.

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"StickyBun" said: I think some fans are falling into the same trap every year: media says QBs will go fast and early + fans drink that Kool Aid = QBs don't go fast and early. 

We all know that QBs are often over drafted because that position is the most important on the team, but agreed, last year the draft pundits had Levis as a top 10 pick.

@"Knucklehead" said:

Did anyone notice that Seattle hired Penix's QB coach at the U. of Washington, Ryan Grubb, to be their new OC? Seattle owns the 16th pick. They have no 2nd round pick (traded to NYG at the deadline for Leonard Williams). Geno Smith is in the final year of his contract. Their back up QB is Drew Lock who is an UFA. It's possible that 6 QBs will be off the board by pick #16.

I think Williams and Daniels are safe bets to go 1-2 but I could see Maye and JJ slipping into that 5-10 range with the other talented players that will be on the board.

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

Kirk Cousins, was brought along at the same time as RG3.  Purdy was at the same time as Lance,  I'm sure there are more but I'm not going to chase it.  I'm guessing there are plenty of teams that wished they wouldn't have waited so long to bring in another young QB when they had one that didn't pan out.

Hindsight is always 20/20. The problem with your argument is every team, when they take a QB high, is fully planning on him being the face of the franchise. 

Cousins getting taken in the 4th the same year as RG3 is the only time I can ever recall a team “doubling down” on a QB. Purdy was taken with the last pick in the draft. There’s absolutely no way they were planning on Purdy being anything other than a coin flip developmental guy when he was taken. 

Teams are going to give a QB at least 2-3 years to develop when they spend a high draft pick on them. You move on from a 4th rounder in one year (ala Jaren Hall), you don’t punt a first or second rounder after half a season. 

For the last time. Nobody is punting them in 1 year,  simply having a back up plan in place.  Do you wait until your car is completely out of gas before you fill it back up?  Then what's so hard about bringing along 2 or 3 QBs at the same time and jetting the weakest ones beofre they hit free agency and going back to the well?  This isn't about finding 1 QB,  this is about keeping that cupboard full so you aren't as likely to find yourself stranded on the side of the road again.

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

Kirk Cousins, was brought along at the same time as RG3.  Purdy was at the same time as Lance,  I'm sure there are more but I'm not going to chase it.  I'm guessing there are plenty of teams that wished they wouldn't have waited so long to bring in another young QB when they had one that didn't pan out.

Hindsight is always 20/20. The problem with your argument is every team, when they take a QB high, is fully planning on him being the face of the franchise. 

Cousins getting taken in the 4th the same year as RG3 is the only time I can ever recall a team “doubling down” on a QB. Purdy was taken with the last pick in the draft. There’s absolutely no way they were planning on Purdy being anything other than a coin flip developmental guy when he was taken. 

Teams are going to give a QB at least 2-3 years to develop when they spend a high draft pick on them. You move on from a 4th rounder in one year (ala Jaren Hall), you don’t punt a first or second rounder after half a season. 

For the last time. Nobody is punting them in 1 year,  simply having a back up plan in place.  Do you wait until your car is completely out of gas before you fill it back up?  Then what's so hard about bringing along 2 or 3 QBs at the same time and jetting the weakest ones beofre they hit free agency and going back to the well?  This isn't about finding 1 QB,  this is about keeping that cupboard full so you aren't as likely to find yourself stranded on the side of the road again.

You don’t keep drafting QBs high one year after another because it’ll affect the development of the first guy you take. You think a young QB is going to develop if they’re worried they’re going to lose their job/starting position every time they make a mistake because the team continually drafts their replacement year after year?

 That’s why teams don’t go about it this way. 

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

Kirk Cousins, was brought along at the same time as RG3.  Purdy was at the same time as Lance,  I'm sure there are more but I'm not going to chase it.  I'm guessing there are plenty of teams that wished they wouldn't have waited so long to bring in another young QB when they had one that didn't pan out.

Hindsight is always 20/20. The problem with your argument is every team, when they take a QB high, is fully planning on him being the face of the franchise. 

Cousins getting taken in the 4th the same year as RG3 is the only time I can ever recall a team “doubling down” on a QB. Purdy was taken with the last pick in the draft. There’s absolutely no way they were planning on Purdy being anything other than a coin flip developmental guy when he was taken. 

Teams are going to give a QB at least 2-3 years to develop when they spend a high draft pick on them. You move on from a 4th rounder in one year (ala Jaren Hall), you don’t punt a first or second rounder after half a season. 

For the last time. Nobody is punting them in 1 year,  simply having a back up plan in place.  Do you wait until your car is completely out of gas before you fill it back up?  Then what's so hard about bringing along 2 or 3 QBs at the same time and jetting the weakest ones beofre they hit free agency and going back to the well?  This isn't about finding 1 QB,  this is about keeping that cupboard full so you aren't as likely to find yourself stranded on the side of the road again.

You don’t keep drafting QBs high one year after another because it’ll affect the development of the first guy you take. You think a young QB is going to develop if they’re worried they’re going to lose their job/starting position every time they make a mistake because the team continually drafts their replacement year after year?

 That’s why teams don’t go about it this way. 

Every other player on the field has competition,  those QBs have had competition since they started playing the damn game,  especially in college,  they don't become mental pussies until they dont have to face competition at the pro level. 

As far as what teams do or don't do....who gives a fuck?  Maybe quality QB play wouldnt be so rare if they changed their approach,   what they are doing now isn't working for 75% of the teams in the league so it's hardly the benchmark for finding and developing quality QB play.

Also,  you don't have to take every QB in the first or 2md round unless you don't have a couple already in the system,  if the Vikes were to go day 1 this year, day 2 next year,  or if Hall suddenly looks like he has a future,  that takes the pressure off year 3,  but the way it's been done in the past just doesn't work as evidenced by our situation once again.

Latest Walter Football Mock has us passing on JJM at 11 for Byron Murphy II

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024.php

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

Kirk Cousins, was brought along at the same time as RG3.  Purdy was at the same time as Lance,  I'm sure there are more but I'm not going to chase it.  I'm guessing there are plenty of teams that wished they wouldn't have waited so long to bring in another young QB when they had one that didn't pan out.

Hindsight is always 20/20. The problem with your argument is every team, when they take a QB high, is fully planning on him being the face of the franchise. 

Cousins getting taken in the 4th the same year as RG3 is the only time I can ever recall a team “doubling down” on a QB. Purdy was taken with the last pick in the draft. There’s absolutely no way they were planning on Purdy being anything other than a coin flip developmental guy when he was taken. 

Teams are going to give a QB at least 2-3 years to develop when they spend a high draft pick on them. You move on from a 4th rounder in one year (ala Jaren Hall), you don’t punt a first or second rounder after half a season. 

For the last time. Nobody is punting them in 1 year,  simply having a back up plan in place.  Do you wait until your car is completely out of gas before you fill it back up?  Then what's so hard about bringing along 2 or 3 QBs at the same time and jetting the weakest ones beofre they hit free agency and going back to the well?  This isn't about finding 1 QB,  this is about keeping that cupboard full so you aren't as likely to find yourself stranded on the side of the road again.

You don’t keep drafting QBs high one year after another because it’ll affect the development of the first guy you take. You think a young QB is going to develop if they’re worried they’re going to lose their job/starting position every time they make a mistake because the team continually drafts their replacement year after year?

 That’s why teams don’t go about it this way. 

Every other player on the field has competition,  those QBs have had competition since they started playing the damn game,  especially in college,  they don't become mental pussies until they dont have to face competition at the pro level. 

As far as what teams do or don't do....who gives a fuck?  Maybe quality QB play wouldnt be so rare if they changed their approach,   what they are doing now isn't working for 75% of the teams in the league so it's hardly the benchmark for finding and developing quality QB play.

Also,  you don't have to take every QB in the first or 2md round unless you don't have a couple already in the system,  if the Vikes were to go day 1 this year, day 2 next year,  or if Hall suddenly looks like he has a future,  that takes the pressure off year 3,  but the way it's been done in the past just doesn't work as evidenced by our situation once again.

All I'm saying is you're arguing for an approach that literally no team has done or likely will do.  If we draft a QB high this year, there is almost no chance that the team will invest even a second or third rounder in the position again until they're 2-3 years down the road because they will be trying to build around the young man.  While you may think your approach is the best way to go at it...no team in the NFL agrees...none.  MY scenario is actually rooted in the reality of how teams historically have acted.  If we take a QB in the first round this year....THAT is the guy that this front office is hanging their hat on to be the future face of the franchise and their future with the team will depend on it.

@"Knucklehead" said:

Did anyone notice that Seattle hired Penix's QB coach at the U. of Washington, Ryan Grubb, to be their new OC? Seattle owns the 16th pick. They have no 2nd round pick (traded to NYG at the deadline for Leonard Williams). Geno Smith is in the final year of his contract. Their back up QB is Drew Lock who is an UFA. It's possible that 6 QBs will be off the board by pick #16.

@"purplefaithful" said: Latest Walter Football Mock has us passing on JJM at 11 for Byron Murphy II

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024.php

@"Knucklehead" said:

Did anyone notice that Seattle hired Penix's QB coach at the U. of Washington, Ryan Grubb, to be their new OC? Seattle owns the 16th pick. They have no 2nd round pick (traded to NYG at the deadline for Leonard Williams). Geno Smith is in the final year of his contract. Their back up QB is Drew Lock who is an UFA. It's possible that 6 QBs will be off the board by pick #16.

Why yes, see page #20 of the 2024 QB Watch thread…  B)  https://vikefans.com/discussion/#/discussion/comment/206026