Guru Mock 2.0
Six days out from showtime and its time for another mock. With teams now setting their draft boards and strategizing their plans a little bit more is coming into light regarding the Vikings and others teams plans. Here is a mock combining my own opinions along with some of what I am hearing.
TRADE 1(9) via SEA - Derrick Stingley Jr. / CB LSU: While I don't necessarily believe the Vikings will prioritize moving up the board in the 1st round, they understand positional value their own needs, and the potential of both Sauce Gardner and Derrick Stingley. The Vikings end up biting the bullet moving 1(12), 3(77), and 6(184) for 1(9) and 4(109). This is basically equal to the trade chart and in a weak class you shouldn't need to pay a premium to move up. Stingley when healthy (his medicals are good to go) is an immediate starter at CB with the upside of a #1 CB capable of shadowing a teams best receiver in the NFL. On film there are not many players who play the ball better in the air and Stingley's 2019 and 2020 (when on the field) film is by the best of an CB in the past few years. The question is his consistency and ability to improve on in-breaking routes. With P2 as a mentor this is just a good situation for everyone and the Vikings add the talent they sorely are lacking on the outside. You need to bet on upside at premium positions and that is the right play here in my opinion.
2(46) - Logan Hall / DE Houston: A personal favorite of mine, Hall seems to be graded highly in the eyes of NFL teams and may not end up making it to pick #46. Regardless, I think the Vikings are going to have an opportunity to grab a high-end pass rusher in this spot and are unlikely to move back. Hall is a front 4 disruptor and has the size to line up at 5T in the base defense. He is explosive and knows how to get after the QB. With NFL coaching he can even be better since he had a tendency to play high in college which should be correctable. Currently the Vikings lack explosiveness in their front-3 in the base. Hall brings a different element to the group and should be able to play regular snaps immediately. In the nickel he can easily line up at either DE spot or 3T. The flexibility there is an added bonus.
4 (109) via SEA - Calvin Austin III / WR Memphis: If the 1st round falls a bit differently I could envision the Vikings considering a WR early, but this value just feels a bit better. The Vikings WR room is already in good shape with Jefferson, Thielen, and Osbourne holding down 11 personnel. They also still think highly of ISM as a depth player and deep threat. What they lack is a gadget player who can succeed with manufactured touches. Austin is a small yet explosive player who still has the ability to line up around the field. The Rams liked to challenge defenses horizontally and using a player like Austin on end-arounds, mesh concepts, and crossers brings a new element to the group. Think of recent Rams pick Tutu Atwell. Austin also can slot in at PR which will allow Osbourne to focus on being the primary slot receiver.
5 (156) - DeAngelo Malone / EDGE Western Kentucky: As noted above the Vikings could easily take an EDGE rusher in round 2 or even in the 1st if they stick at pick #12. This late there is still value with the depth at the position although you get limited versatility. Malone is a thinner guy who is more of a situational 3-4 OLB but can bring value in a rotation early. He does a good job in the base getting to the ball carrier and has surprising explosiveness when closing on the QB. Everyone this late in the draft has flaws and Malone's are questions around if he can really add much weight and his odd rush execution plans. He should be able to make the 53-man roster but will end up being a rotational piece with Wonnum. Maybe he develops into more.
6 (191) - Malcolm Rodriguez / ILB Oklahoma State: Draft crush of mine right here. Teams like the Rams and Broncos have found a not often talked about inefficiency in the later rounds of drafts. Undersized players with good tape and undervalued positions. Rodriguez one tape is one of the best ILBs in this draft class, he is just extremely undersized by NFL standards. When you watch him on film he has not speed or movement limitations and finds the ball carrier extremely well. In a 3-4 defense size at the ILB spots can often be hidden. The Vikings lack depth behind Kendricks & Hicks and I believe enough in Rodriguez that I believe he may be an eventual NFL starter. His skillset is also extremely valuable on special teams.
6 (192) - Zach Tom / C Wake Forest: At some point the Vikings will add more competition along the O-line. Tom has lined up across the line at Wake Forest and actually was their LT this past year. He doesn't have the length nor size to play OT in the NFL but he projects well for center. His testing numbers and explosiveness suggest he is a good bet to develop on an NFL roster. The Vikings lack center depth behind Bradbury and although Tom won't be able to start in the near-term, he does have some traits that suggest he could be better in the NFL when put in a zone scheme where he'll be more natural.
7 (251) - Damarion Williams / CB Houston: Draft fans will be more familiar with all-around Houston CB Marcus Jones, but Damarion Williams has an opportunity to compete in camp as nickel CB depth. He is a smaller player and lacks length, but that can be hidden on the inside. With Stingley in the 1st the Vikings have strong depth on the outside between Stingley, P2, Dantzler, and Kris Boyd. Behind Chandon Sullivan they lack depth at nickel and Williams would provide solid competition for Perry Nickerson.
Too lazy to look up but we moved up into the end of the first round for Teddy, right? I know not the same as moving up from a first rounder to go higher in the first round but, nevertheless.
@"minny65" said: Too lazy to look up but we moved up into the end of the first round for Teddy, right? I know not the same as moving up from a first rounder to go higher in the first round but, nevertheless.We did. Didnt we also move up to get Harrison Smith?
@"AGRforever" said:Yea, that also sounds right - we moved back into the first. Now I have to go look up :)@"minny65" said: Too lazy to look up but we moved up into the end of the first round for Teddy, right? I know not the same as moving up from a first rounder to go higher in the first round but, nevertheless. We did. Didnt we also move up to get Harrison Smith?
@"minny65" said:Yea Teddy was 32, and Harrison 29.@"AGRforever" said:Yea, that also sounds right - we moved back into the first. Now I have to go look up :)@"minny65" said: Too lazy to look up but we moved up into the end of the first round for Teddy, right? I know not the same as moving up from a first rounder to go higher in the first round but, nevertheless. We did. Didnt we also move up to get Harrison Smith?
@"minny65" said:And IIRC Cordarrell Patterson as well.@"minny65" said:Yea Teddy was 32, and Harrison 29.@"AGRforever" said:Yea, that also sounds right - we moved back into the first. Now I have to go look up :)@"minny65" said: Too lazy to look up but we moved up into the end of the first round for Teddy, right? I know not the same as moving up from a first rounder to go higher in the first round but, nevertheless. We did. Didnt we also move up to get Harrison Smith?
@"JimmyinSD" said:Yup. That was the big one in 2013. Moved from 52 to 29. Think it took 52 plus a 3rd,4th and 7th. Yikes!@"minny65" said:And IIRC Cordarrell Patterson as well.@"minny65" said:Yea Teddy was 32, and Harrison 29.@"AGRforever" said:Yea, that also sounds right - we moved back into the first. Now I have to go look up :)@"minny65" said: Too lazy to look up but we moved up into the end of the first round for Teddy, right? I know not the same as moving up from a first rounder to go higher in the first round but, nevertheless. We did. Didnt we also move up to get Harrison Smith?
@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
@"MaroonBells" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
And yet, ESPN and other do identify that the vikings were on the positive end of the exchange. In terms of long range productivity in the slots that vikings gained a 1.1 advantage that is equivalent to 4th round slot.Also of note, it is very clear the Cine is the player the vikings wanted, yes, over Hamilton.
@"peacebringer" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
And yet, ESPN and other do identify that the vikings were on the positive end of the exchange. In terms of long range productivity in the slots that vikings gained a 1.1 advantage that is equivalent to 4th round slot.Also of note, it is very clear the Cine is the player the vikings wanted, yes, over Hamilton.
No problem with Cine. Good player that everybody and his brother mocked up for us in the 2nd round. And it also wouldn't surprise me too much if he ended up a better player than Hamilton. But I have to wonder if the Vikings would've taken Elam if he hadn't been taken a few slots before.
@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"peacebringer" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
And yet, ESPN and other do identify that the vikings were on the positive end of the exchange. In terms of long range productivity in the slots that vikings gained a 1.1 advantage that is equivalent to 4th round slot.Also of note, it is very clear the Cine is the player the vikings wanted, yes, over Hamilton.
No problem with Cine. Good player that everybody and his brother mocked up for us in the 2nd round. And it also wouldn't surprise me too much if he ended up a better player than Hamilton. But I have to wonder if the Vikings would've taken Elam if he hadn't been taken a few slots before.
I had checked-in and they weren't trying to move up into the earlier portions of the 20. But I did hear they liked Elam as we approached yesterday. I actually heard they liked him considerably more than McDuffie.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
Or...Was Cine + high 3rd + moving up 1/2 round in the 2nd worth passing on Jameson Williams + letting a division rival draft him instead?
I would have been perfectly fine with Williams @ 12
@"purplefaithful" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"StickyBun" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
Or...Was Cine + high 3rd + moving up 1/2 round in the 2nd worth passing on Jameson Williams + letting a division rival draft him instead?
I would have been perfectly fine with Williams @ 12
On talent alone, no. But take WR off the table for a moment since they eliminated it as an option or they would have taken Williams. Its comparing apples to oranges.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
I suppose you may be referencing something similar to the Fitzgerald-Speilberger chart which shows a Viking win on the trade compensation. I might caution the same chart shows the Vikings cost for moving from 12th to 9th was a 7th rounder and from 12th to 7th as a 6th rounder. Don't believe you would have located a willing partner for those proposals.
— Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) April 29, 2022
It's absolutely hilarious to me that the math people see this as a win and the others don't. Definitely a bizarre draft as far as talent goes and how it is going to play out. It is going to be interesting to watch the process. I am looking forward to seeing more.
@"Vikergirl" said: It's absolutely hilarious to me that the math people see this as a win and the others don't. Definitely a bizarre draft as far as talent goes and how it is going to play out. It is going to be interesting to watch the process. I am looking forward to seeing more.
Well, you're a glutton for punishment then ;)
For me its more trepidation than anything...
Those guys have lost my trust in one fell swoop and I hope they win it back over time.
@"Rigby" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
I suppose you may be referencing something similar to the Fitzgerald-Speilberger chart which shows a Viking win on the trade compensation. I might caution the same chart shows the Vikings cost for moving from 12th to 9th was a 7th rounder and from 12th to 7th as a 6th rounder. Don't believe you would have located a willing partner for those proposals.
I'm not referencing that chart specifically, but analytics charts in-general, which should be used in a vacuum. I will 100% agree they didn't "maximize" value moving back. But it ultimately comes down to two things:1. What is your best alternative if you stay in the pick
2. What other teams are vying to move up and what are their offersIf they stayed in pick #12 it likely was going to be one of Jameson Williams, Jordan Davis, or Kyle Hamilton. Nothing wrong with any of those players but they were the choices in that slot. Eliminate a NT vs the other two and its ultimately Williams as a dynamic receiver or Hamilton.
Keeping all things equal the Vikings/Detroit trade on the old charts valued #12 at 970 pts which equals about the 15-16th overall pick. Part of that is given the weaker draft class. But lets say they need to achieve about 1,050 points to feel good about the deal using the old charts. That is roughly #29 plus #50 from KC.
So you end up with #32, #34, and #66. Otherwise #29, #46 (kept), or #50.
Assuming they were locked into Cine regardless I would rather get the different between #46 and #32 vs. #50. Booth, Mafe, etc. is much better than anyone you'd get at either #46 or #50.
So all things considered I don't think the value is awful by any means. It isn't great, but I see what the logic was none the less. Its just dependent on the players they draft actually being good.
@"Vikergirl" said: It's absolutely hilarious to me that the math people see this as a win and the others don't. Definitely a bizarre draft as far as talent goes and how it is going to play out. It is going to be interesting to watch the process. I am looking forward to seeing more.I haven't seen any "math" person see this as a win? A few might be saying they liked the Cine pick but almost to a person they Know we didn't win the exchange of picks because the math does not add up in our favor.
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