Murphy: Vikings’ well-compensated defense must dominate or there’s hell to pay

I have to agree. We drafted really good players. Most of them are in their prime. Very, very few NFL teams have defenses this young and this talented. This should be an elite defense. And if it's not, something's wrong. 

With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, Minnesota played host to backpedaling Indianapolis on Week 15 at U.S. Bank Stadium and allowed Andrew Luck and the Colts to walk all over them in a 34-6 humiliation.
A week later at Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers sliced and diced the Vikings defense for 28 first-half points as the Green Bay quarterback threw for four touchdowns in a 13-point victory that snuffed Minnesota’s postseason hopes.
Out-played, out-schemed and out-coached, the Vikings allowed 62 points in a span of six quarters — or 20 percent of their season-long yield — to send them home for a bitter offseason.
“I don’t know about angrier,” Zimmer said when asked about his defense’s response this year. “I think they want to get better. These guys have a lot of pride, and actually they’re a lot of fun to be around. Every year is different, but I have a lot of confidence in their ability.”

20% of the points in ~6 quarters of football... Dayum...

I saw some crazy stat that Zimmer has lost only 1 game where the offense scored 23 or more point in Minnesota? The D won't be the problem, lack of scoring in the redzone killed the Vikings last season. 

@"StickyBun" said: I saw some crazy stat that Zimmer has lost only 1 game where the offense scored 23 or more point in Minnesota? The D won't be the problem, lack of scoring in the redzone killed the Vikings last season. 

Giving up 62 points in 6 quarters didn't help either. Can't let that kind of breakdown happen again. That was like watching the defense from the Culpepper years. 

@"StickyBun" said: I saw some crazy stat that Zimmer has lost only 1 game where the offense scored 23 or more point in Minnesota? The D won't be the problem, lack of scoring in the redzone killed the Vikings last season. 

We hold serve on D, and pump out just a little more O...we're golden...Guys like Cook getting us a chunk play here or there is going to pay off...

@"StickyBun" said: I saw some crazy stat that Zimmer has lost only 1 game where the offense scored 23 or more point in Minnesota? The D won't be the problem, lack of scoring in the redzone killed the Vikings last season. 

I think one of the beat writers dug up this stat and the Vikings are 20-3 under Zimmer when the team scores at least 21 points.  Pretty impressive stat. 
Just for reference, our scoring offense dropped from 22.8 ppg (ranked 16th overall) in 2015 to 20.4 ppg (ranked 23rd overall) in 2016.  If the Vikings can turn that 32nd ranked rushing attack around and have a top 10 rushing attack...  I think that should be enough to get us back into the playoffs.  This team can win a bunch of games if our offense helps carry the load.

@"Wetlander" said:

@"StickyBun" said: I saw some crazy stat that Zimmer has lost only 1 game where the offense scored 23 or more point in Minnesota? The D won't be the problem, lack of scoring in the redzone killed the Vikings last season. 

I think one of the beat writers dug up this stat and the Vikings are 20-3 under Zimmer when the team scores at least 21 points.  Pretty impressive stat. 
Just for reference, our scoring offense dropped from 22.8 ppg (ranked 16th overall) in 2015 to 20.4 ppg (ranked 23rd overall) in 2016.  If the Vikings can turn that 32nd ranked rushing attack around and have a top 10 rushing attack...  I think that should be enough to get us back into the playoffs.  This team can win a bunch of games if our offense helps carry the load.

@"StickyBun" said:

Thanks for clarifying, Wet. Yeah, I knew it was something like that. Crazy good on D.

I was curious and dropped it down to win/loss when the Vikings scored 20 ppg...  the Vikings record is still a staggering 22-6.  Just think if the Vikings don't have any clunkers on offense this season and their lowest final score is 20 points scored in a game.  The Vikings would win at least 12 games and likely 13 or 14.
BOOM

Does anyone have access to some stats which would provide a baseline to interpret this? Specifically, what is the record for all NFL teams when their offense scores at least 21 points (over the 3 years Zimmer has coached here)? We can't really have a context of whether Zimmer's record is great or not unless we compare. Maybe he's outstanding, but it's possible that most teams win when they put up 21 or more. I haven't found a reference, but some of you have really good stat skills.

The D needs to stop the run to be considered dominent.  Way to many soft spots on the run D the last couple of seasons.

@"BarrNone55" said: 20% of the points in ~6 quarters of football... Dayum...

30% of the Vikings passing TDs came in 5 quarters of football. 23% of the Vikings scoring came in the last 2 games.

 As to the defense, they are the only reason the Vikings are constantly competitive and are one of the best defenses in the league.  Not worried about the defense.

@"BarrNone55" said: 20% of the points in ~6 quarters of football... Dayum...

I couldn't believe what I was seeing on the field against the Colts that day...Didnt even bother to watch the Packer game the next week - had it dvr'ed in case they somehow pulled out a win. 

You watch enough football over the years and you know when a team is packing it in. The Vikings were packing it in by then. 

Sad, but it happens. 

I agree with much of whats been posted, if the O gets a little more juice (let alone a decent lead now and then) this is a double digit win team. 

I think the Vikings are going to surprise a lot of people, including the media and fans from opposing teams too. 

@"Jor-El" said: Does anyone have access to some stats which would provide a baseline to interpret this? Specifically, what is the record for all NFL teams when their offense scores at least 21 points (over the 3 years Zimmer has coached here)? We can't really have a context of whether Zimmer's record is great or not unless we compare. Maybe he's outstanding, but it's possible that most teams win when they put up 21 or more. I haven't found a reference, but some of you have really good stat skills.

I can give you the NFCN over the last 3 years, but the entire NFL would take way too much time for me.

Team record when scoring 21+ 2014-2016
Packers: 30-6
Lions: 17-5
Bears: 10-11

Total: 57-22 
Average: 19-7.3

@"Jor-El" said: Does anyone have access to some stats which would provide a baseline to interpret this? Specifically, what is the record for all NFL teams when their offense scores at least 21 points (over the 3 years Zimmer has coached here)? We can't really have a context of whether Zimmer's record is great or not unless we compare. Maybe he's outstanding, but it's possible that most teams win when they put up 21 or more. I haven't found a reference, but some of you have really good stat skills.

It would take a while to compute this for the entire NFL.  I'll do the entire NFC win/loss when those teams have scored at least 21 points over the past three seasons.  If I find time later, I could do the AFC...  or someone else could tackle that!

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings:  20-3 (87%)
2. Green Bay Packers:  30-6 (83%)
3. Detroit Lions:  17-5  (77%)
4. Chicago Bears:  10-11 (48%)

NFC West

1. Arizona Cardinals: 26-5 (84%)
2. Seattle Seahawks:  23-8 (74%)
3. Los Angeles Rams: 12-7 (63%)
4. San Francisco 49ers: 9-7 (56%)

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys: 25-3 (89%)
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 24-10 (70%)
3. Washington Redskins: 17-7-1 (68%)
4. New York Giants:  17-11 (61%)

NFC South

1. Carolina Panthers: 24-4-1 (83%)
2. Atlanta Falcons: 22-10 (69%)
3. New Orleans Saints:  19-14 (57%)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-9 (55%)

There you have it!  The average win percentage for the NFC when teams have scored 21 points or more over the past three seasons is 71%.  The Vikings are ranked 2nd in the NFC over that time frame with an 87% winning percentage just behind the Cowboys.  It's still a pretty impressive stat considering our offensive production has been in the bottom half of the league the past three seasons.

Nice work Wet (clap!)

Look, they didnt bring Zimmer over because he was Mike McCarthy good @ offense. They brought him over here cause he's a D guru and we have the NFC version of Tom Brady in our division. And Rogers aint retiring any time soon. 

Vikes will go as far as their D carries them year on year. The O is along for the ride and needs to do "just enough"

Cook should help immensely in this regard and Bradford too. Of course the OL needs to be at least average - we'd all take that in a heart-beat. 

Hell, if I'm Sam? This is the place I'd love to finish out my career. I don't have to be a HOF QB, but I can be paired with Zimm and D personnel that good. 

Thats a nice place to be...

Interesting stats!  Thanks for putting that together!  It would be just as interesting to see team records when their D gives up 21 points or less.  How does that compare to the rest of the NFC?

@"AllBS" said: Interesting stats!  Thanks for putting that together!  It would be just as interesting to see team records when their D gives up 21 points or less.  How does that compare to the rest of the NFC?

You guys are killing me...  I'll see what I can come up with over lunch.  LOL

Yes, thanks for pulling all that! If you want to do the entire NFC that's great, but quickly comparing the NFCN teams "over 21 scored" with their complete records:

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings:  20-3 (87%)         26-22 (54%)    Difference: +33%
2. Green Bay Packers:  30-6 (83%)         32-16 (66%)    Difference: +17%
3. Detroit Lions:  17-5  (77%)                27-21 (56%)    Difference: +21%
4. Chicago Bears:  10-11 (48%)             14-34 (29%)    Difference: +19%

My quick conclusions? EVERYONE is a lot better when they score at least 21, but the Vikings really are significantly better.