Evaluation of KAM's Use of Draft Capital

No doubt whatsoever KAM has thoroughly sucked through his first two drafts...This is the moment he can redeem himself some what. Let's hope he can pull a rabbit out of his ass and get it right this time.

They don't even mention the move down with the Lions in 2022 that only netted us a 14-slot improvement in the 2nd and an early 3rd rounder. That was far more egregious than any of the moves he made in '24 IMO. 

In 2024, Vikings didn't just want any QB. They wanted the QB that Kevin O'Connell identified. So making a move that resulted in two 1st rounders, putting them in position to trade high into the top 10 to get him, I have no problem with. It was that important. Who they were targeting doesn't really matter, because when all the evaluations were done, they decided they could stay at 11 and still get a QB they'd be happy with....AND keep pick 22. 

Ultimately, they traded up from both positions, which is where it got spendy, but you have to remember, if another team traded into that 10 slot to grab JJ, Vikings would've missed AGAIN on their QBOTF. All plans foiled. Moving up to take Turner was just lust...or greed...but Turner was the consensus #1 defensive player in the draft. The math ignores that fact. And to get him all you have to give up is a couple future middle round picks? I make that move every time. 

If McCarthy and Turner turn into the kind of players most expect them to, no one's going to care about the math. I actually like the boldness.

Kwesi seems kinda bad at drafting and even worse at trading, but we’re winning games, the vibes are good, and I love where the roster is at the moment so, yolo I guess. SKOL!

MaroonBells wrote:
They don't even mention the move down with the Lions in 2022 that only netted us a 14-slot improvement in the 2nd and an early 3rd rounder. That was far much more egregious than any of the moves he made in '24 IMO. 

In 2024, Vikings didn't just want any QB. They wanted the QB that Kevin O'Connell identified. So making a move that resulted in two 1st rounders, putting them in position to trade high into the top 10 to get him, I have no problem with. It was that important. Who they were targeting doesn't really matter, because when all the evaluations were done, they decided they could stay at 11 and still get a QB they'd be happy with....AND keep pick 22. 

Ultimately, they traded up from both positions, which is where it got spendy, but you have to remember, if another team traded into that 10 slot to grab JJ, Vikings would've missed AGAIN on their QBOTF. All plans foiled. Moving up to take Turner was just lust...or greed...but Turner was the consensus #1 defensive player in the draft. The math ignores that fact. And to get him all you have to give up is a couple future middle round picks? I make that move every time. 

If McCarthy and Turner turn into the kind of players most expect them to, no one's going to care about the math. I actually like the boldness.

This is the key for me with KAM. Its key for the franchise too. Both those guys need to pan out and payoff, especially JJM. 

We need him to be more than avg. 

Whats done is done with the prior drafts to 24 and I've bagged on it enough already. 

Maybe the Vikings just roll this year and he gets a long-term extension? 

But I believe he's more on track for a short-term, prove it type deal of 2+ years. And thats not because of free agency.

JR44 wrote:

For a guy who worked on Wall Street, he is not great at maximizing capital.  Would not be as bad if he was getting great value on his picks, but then he has compounded these errors with awful selections.  Having 1 starter out of the last 3 drafts really hurt us last year.  Hopefully the trend somehow changes next month.

I could not agree less.
For a guy who worked on Wall Street, he understands the time/value of money.
Draft picks are a type of currency.
Trader Rick set all kinds of records with sheer volume of draft picks.  That didn't get us any closer to a deep run in the playoffs.
You can say what you want about the draft, his whiffs, but you cannot find fault in what he has done in FA the past two years.
In Free Agency, you can hand pick someone who is proven already, like a Greenard, Van Ginkel, Aaron Jones, Blake Cashman, etc etc last year.  Not even mentioning the holes he filled via FA the last month.

If I have a desperate need for capital and my business has obvious holes, I'm going to pay more for capital.
You guys are all looking at each transaction in a vacuum.  That's not real life.

Montana Tom wrote:

I could not agree less.
For a guy who worked on Wall Street, he understands the time/value of money.
Draft picks are a type of currency.
Trader Rick set all kinds of records with sheer volume of draft picks.  That didn't get us any closer to a deep run in the playoffs.
You can say what you want about the draft, his whiffs, but you cannot find fault in what he has done in FA the past two years.
In Free Agency, you can hand pick someone who is proven already, like a Greenard, Van Ginkel, Aaron Jones, Blake Cashman, etc etc last year.  Not even mentioning the holes he filled via FA the last month.

If I have a desperate need for capital and my business has obvious holes, I'm going to pay more for capital.
You guys are all looking at each transaction in a vacuum.  That's not real life.

If he understands the value of money, why is he not getting better value out of his draft capital and getting better players in the draft?  I do not see him understanding the value at all.  This is all about his drafting and so not sure why you are bringing free agency into the equation, but since you did, why do you sign two starting edge rushers in free agency and then use a 3rd, 4th and 5th to move up in the 1st to draft a position that you have already filled and have many other holes to fill.  Unless you are drafting your future QB, you do not spend that kind of draft capital on a developmental project or someone who is not going to come in and be an immediate starter.  That move could have been the difference in getting the depth we needed to win those games down the stretch last year.  He did a great job in free agency last year, not sold on what he did this year sans the OL moves, but there is no argument his drafting has been a complete mess.

Montana Tom wrote:

I could not agree less.
For a guy who worked on Wall Street, he understands the time/value of money.
Draft picks are a type of currency.
Trader Rick set all kinds of records with sheer volume of draft picks.  That didn't get us any closer to a deep run in the playoffs.
You can say what you want about the draft, his whiffs, but you cannot find fault in what he has done in FA the past two years.
In Free Agency, you can hand pick someone who is proven already, like a Greenard, Van Ginkel, Aaron Jones, Blake Cashman, etc etc last year.  Not even mentioning the holes he filled via FA the last month.
If I have a desperate need for capital and my business has obvious holes, I'm going to pay more for capital.
You guys are all looking at each transaction in a vacuum.  That's not real life.

FA does not make-up for the fact that the franchise has 1 starter the last THREE drafts.  

This board would be skewering GB/Chi/Detroit if they had that track record.

The picks and values have both been poor. It's especially egregious when you take into account the quality of coaching and culture these picks were brought into. 

I'd bet a lot of $$ the draftniks here could have done better. 

There is an accountability due and eventual reckoning coming if 24 and 25 dont pan out.

Montana Tom wrote:

I could not agree less.
For a guy who worked on Wall Street, he understands the time/value of money.
Draft picks are a type of currency.
Trader Rick set all kinds of records with sheer volume of draft picks.  That didn't get us any closer to a deep run in the playoffs.
You can say what you want about the draft, his whiffs, but you cannot find fault in what he has done in FA the past two years.
In Free Agency, you can hand pick someone who is proven already, like a Greenard, Van Ginkel, Aaron Jones, Blake Cashman, etc etc last year.  Not even mentioning the holes he filled via FA the last month.

If I have a desperate need for capital and my business has obvious holes, I'm going to pay more for capital.
You guys are all looking at each transaction in a vacuum.  That's not real life.

That's exactly it. ESPN is attaching fixed, in-a-vacuum values to draft slots and ignoring the value of the specific player in that slot to the team targeting him. The Vikings likely would've paid far less to move up for just any player. In reality, the draft's #1 defensive player was still on the board about 10 slots down from where he was projected to go. That made the pick much more valuable. So Jacksonville likely had several other offers.

MaroonBells wrote:

That's exactly it. ESPN is attaching fixed, in-a-vacuum values to draft slots and ignoring the value of the specific player in that slot to the team targeting him. The Vikings likely would've paid far less to move up for just any player. In reality, the draft's #1 defensive player was still on the board about 10 slots down from where he was projected to go. That made the pick much more valuable. So Jacksonville likely had several other offers.

Not really sure how you are doing the math when every team uses the value charts, however great let's say his draft trades were amazing, let's look at what he has done with the picks.  Last year we had 1 starter out of the 23 picks that KAM has drafted with many of the top picks not even on the team.  Are you saying he has gotten great value?  Also, Turner was not the top defensive player in the draft, nor he was a position of need. Was it great value to use a 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th rounder on a guy who was not going to be ready to play when you just signed two starting edge rushers in free agency.  The ROI in this case is factual, not sure how you can bend it any other way.

2024 Consensus Big Board

Dallas Turner #9 overall and the first D player listed.

JR44 wrote:

Not really sure how you are doing the math when every team uses the value charts, however great let's say his draft trades were amazing, let's look at what he has done with the picks.  Last year we had 1 starter out of the 23 picks that KAM has drafted with many of the top picks not even on the team.  Are you saying he has gotten great value?  Also, Turner was not the top defensive player in the draft, nor he was a position of need. Was it great value to use a 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th rounder on a guy who was not going to be ready to play when you just signed two starting edge rushers in free agency.  The ROI in this case is factual, not sure how you can bend it any other way.

I think I would need an analogy to make it clear to you. Suffice to say, not all drafts are the same. A premier player dropping due to teams filling needs has more value than simply the next guy on the list. And yes, Turner was the consensus best defensive player in that draft. Whether you agree with that or not is beside the point.

People are equating cost to value, which is not the case. Tom nailed it when he laid it out. JJM and Turner both had greater value to the vikings than a generic cost chart indicated.