Forum The Longship Vikings a "legit" 8-2

Vikings a "legit" 8-2

MaroonBells
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At this point two years ago, the Vikings were also 8-2. But...

"There's just no comparison between those teams," said Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA who is now the chief analytics officer of FTN Fantasy and a contributor to ESPN. "The 2022 team was close to the strangest year I've ever seen. This year is a completely different situation. The Vikings this season are playing like an 8-2 team. There's no luck involved here. They have played that well."

More at link. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42487786/nfl-vikings-legit-sam-darnold-justin-jefferson

#1 · Nov 20, 2:35 AM
NorseFeathers
Joined Apr 2019
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Upgrades at linebackers and a huge upgrade in defensive coordinator. This is a better team.

edited Nov 20, 2024 6:27 AM
#2 · Nov 20, 2:45 AM
purplefaithful
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Yes, I think this is better than KOC's first team. Its because of BFlo for the most part.

Not sure how good they are though. We all know what Parcells says, but I aint a buyer on this years squad yet.

They have 7 straight NFC games coming-up, that will tell the tale of 24 and Sam I Am.

Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger! 

#3 · Nov 20, 3:12 AM
JR44
Joined Aug 2017
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I think the 2022 team was a better team, while Sam has played well, Cousins was a much better QB that year. We also had a better running game with Cook and our #2 WR was much more productive and consistent, also we had a healthier version of TJ. The defenses were actually similar in personnel, but this defense has played better as a unit.

I do not think the quote above is fair regarding winning with "luck" as that team found ways to win games. This team finds ways to not lose games, 5 of the wins Giants, Jets, Titans, Jags and Colts. I like this team and they have been a great surprise to watch, but I believe the 2022 team would have beaten them.

#4 · Nov 20, 3:52 AM
MaroonBells
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purplefaithful wrote:
Yes, I think this is better than KOC's first team. Its because of BFlo for the most part.

Not sure how good they are though. We all know what Parcells says, but I aint a buyer on this years squad yet.

They have 7 straight NFC games coming-up, that will tell the tale of 24 and Sam I Am.

I think they are what they are this year. They're a clean 8-2. A very good team, certainly a playoff team, but probably not quite as good as the Lions. DVOA supports that: they've beaten good teams, they've beaten the teams they're supposed to beat and their only two losses were to good teams they took to the wire. 

It's not a perfect team and they've been spotty at times. But so have the Lions. Lions have some massive blow outs on their resume, but Goff was bad against the Bucs in a loss earlier in the season and then again throwing 5 picks against the Texans. No doubt that is the team to beat though.

#5 · Nov 20, 3:55 AM
Montana Tom
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purplefaithful wrote:
Yes, I think this is better than KOC's first team. Its because of BFlo for the most part.

Not sure how good they are though. We all know what Parcells says, but I aint a buyer on this years squad yet.

They have 7 straight NFC games coming-up, that will tell the tale of 24 and Sam I Am.

I believe last year was an anomaly for both KOC and BFlo.
The injuries at QB and revolving door at that position clearly put us at a disadvantage.  But it was more than that, lest we forget:

Cam Akers went on IR with a blown Achilles after week 9
Mekhi Blackmon out the last game
Cousins after week 8
Marcus Davenport after week 6, but he was only listed as a full participant for two games
Troy Dye out the last game
Jordan Hicks out for four weeks starting week 10
TJ Hockenson out the last two games
Justin Jefferson out four weeks starting week 6, (and then questionable for the next three weeks)
Malik Knowles, William Kwenkeu and James Lynch...all on IR for the entire season (backups)
Dean Lowry out after week 11. 
Theo Jackson out the last two games
Backup QB Nick Mullens on IR for five weeks after week 5
Byron Murphy out the last three games of the season
Jalen Nailor on IR for weeks 3-6 and then out for the last four games of the season.
Kene Nwangwu out for games 1-5 and 8
Oli Udhoh out for the season after game 1
DJ Wonnum out for the last two games

There are more that were out for one or more individual games for injury, but you get the point.

This is not a commentary about whether or not our roster is better or not.  This is who we had on the roster and how injury-riddled we were.  I don't think that BFlo's defense was able to get enough consistency to matter last season.  For the record, I do think this year's roster is better, but I think fewer injuries (so far), more familiarity and consistency has been the key in the defense's ability to perform at a high level.

#6 · Nov 20, 6:05 AM
medaille
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I think this team is a little more legit than the first KOC team. I think if you were to replay that earlier teams season like a hundred times, they probably are averaging closer to 9-10 wins rather than 13. You look at strength of schedule and we’re playing easier teams this year, and we’re winning with less miracles/heroics needed. I think we’re probably one to two extra games in the playoffs better than the 2022 team, but still not going all the way caliber. The 2022 team probably shouldn’t have lost that Giants game, but they probably weren’t playing in 3 playoff games very many times. This season, we really should have a good chance of winning our first game or two without fanfare, and there’s a reasonable chance that we could beat the best teams on any given Sunday, and there’s less top tier teams in our way.

#7 · Nov 20, 7:24 AM
MA
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2024 schedule Games 1-5 were tough opponents, no way anyone could look at those games and say the Vikings hadn't played anyone.

Vikings went 5-0 and were trailed and trailed 3? minutes total......

the lucky/fortunate/ smoke and mirrors conversation was neatly settled.

#8 · Nov 20, 8:19 AM
MA
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JR44 wrote:
I think the 2022 team was a better team, while Sam has played well, Cousins was a much better QB that year.  We also had a better running game with Cook and our #2 WR was much more productive and consistent, also we had a healthier version of TJ.  The defenses were actually similar in personnel, but this defense has played better as a unit. 

I do not think the quote above is fair regarding winning with "luck" as that team found ways to win games.  This team finds ways to not lose games, 5 of the wins Giants, Jets, Titans, Jags and Colts.  I like this team and they have been a great surprise to watch, but I believe the 2022 team would have beaten them.

I'm not sure about that.  The biggest difference is the defense this year.  They are legitimately a top 5 defense if you look at traditional metrics and analytics.  Teams can't run on us.  Sure some teams will pop an 8-10 yd run every now and then, but we're not giving up explosive runs and get a lot of TFLs and short gains.  Our secondary is opportunistic and our pass rush is way better than 2022.

Agree, Cousins is better than Darnold...  but I'll take Aaron Jones over 2022 Dalvin and our receiving corps is better.

The 2022 had some magic to it and I loved all the thrilling wins, but this 2024 squad is a better team.  Love our trajectory in the next 3 years with the young core on defense and JJM leading this skilled group of offensive playmakers.

#9 · Nov 20, 1:00 PM
Zanary
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I think this team is the most legit of the KOC teams thus far, though Sam is the wild card; if he keeps it together and the timing improves with his receivers, the Vikings remain very dangerous. He simply has to have safe options available, and/or has to be reminded that when he panics, he underthrows to the competition.

That said, he did have a sweet TD pass dropped last Sunday, which would have been a great boost in points and confidence.

Right now, I don't see anyone- including the kittens- that we shouldn't be able to compete with. Truth be told, I see the rest of the schedule as being tough, but winning out isn't impossible.

KOC, JJM, Flores...make a good plan, or you'll be following Kwesi....

#10 · Nov 20, 2:48 PM
MaroonBells
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Zanary wrote:
I think this team is the most legit of the KOC teams thus far, though Sam is the wild card; if he keeps it together and the timing improves with his receivers, the Vikings remain very dangerous. He simply has to have safe options available, and/or has to be reminded that when he panics, he underthrows to the competition.

That said, he did have a sweet TD pass dropped last Sunday, which would have been a great boost in points and confidence.

Right now, I don't see anyone- including the kittens- that we shouldn't be able to compete with. Truth be told, I see the rest of the schedule as being tough, but winning out isn't impossible.

I think we have a little bit easier remaining schedule than the Lions too. Lions still have the 49ers and Bills.

#11 · Nov 21, 1:42 AM
purplefaithful
Joined May 2013
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8-2! Surprised? You might be, but Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell sure isn’t.

Five NFL teams already have exceeded their win totals for the entire 2023 season.

Washington, 7-4 with new head coach Dan Quinn and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, leads the way with a three-win improvement. The 8-2 Vikings are, however, the only team to need only 10 games to exceed as many as seven wins from last season.

Surely, that has to surprise coach Kevin O’Connell just a teeny bit, right?

Not exactly, he says.

“I tried to portray my expectations from the very first time I stood in front of this team in training camp when we reported in late July,” O’Connell said. “There hasn’t been because I’ve tried to push beyond maybe their own personal expectations early or anything they might have been hearing … about our team. I’ve tried to wade my way through that and eliminate all of that.”

The other teams to exceed last year’s win totals are Carolina (3-7, plus-1), Arizona (6-4, plus-2) and the Chargers (7-3, plus-2).

Four of the NFC’s top seven seeds now belong to teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year: No. 3 Arizona, No. 4 Atlanta, No. 5 Vikings and No. 7 Washington. Two of the AFC’s top seven seeds belong to teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year: No. 5 Chargers and No. 7 Denver.

Startribune

Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger! 

#12 · Nov 21, 2:52 AM
MaroonBells
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StickierBuns wrote:
Not that I care, but its humorous the national media is so dismissive of an 8-2 record in Minnesota because of Sam Darnold. 'Darnold is going to Darnold' at some point they say, so lets move on to which team will give the Lions the most problem in the playoffs: Green Bay, Philly or Atlanta? lol.

I've said my piece on Darnold and 'Bad Sam'.....but it should be a fun stretch run these last 7 games.

It's not just the national media, it's plenty of Viking fans too. What all of them don't seem to understand is that Darnold isn't doing this because he's suddenly great. He's doing it because of pretty good protection, outstanding weapons and a top-notch coach and playcaller. I've been saying this all year, but those things aren't going anywhere. 

Is he going to have bad games? Of course he is. Probably even a couple more this season. But name a QB who doesn't have bad games. I'll wait....

This notion that one of these days he's going to permanently turn into Bad Sam again seems a bit silly to me.

#13 · Nov 22, 1:25 AM
purplefaithful
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You want to root for someone who is turning their misfortunes around? You like feel good tales during the holidays?

Darnold is a nice story to follow.

Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger! 

#14 · Nov 22, 3:59 AM
pattersaur
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Biggest difference to me with this team versus some of the Kirk ones, is we have yet to lay a total egg.

Losing to the Rams on TNF by 10 is the closest we've come, and that game was horribly officiated and felt closer than the final score. And the only other loss was DET by 2.

As insane as it is to say, I'd feel better about putting $50 on this team to win the SB today, and having a snowball's shot of cashing it, than any team for sure since Keenum's year. And maybe since '09. I could be dead wrong and we could tank as soon as this weekend but I don't think so. Keep turnovers somewhat in check and I like our team and coaching a lot the rest of the way.

Btw Hockenson is back but hasn't been "back". He's still only been playing half the time. Hopefully this weekend we see more, especially if my guy Oliver is out. Hockenson is a difference maker.

edited Nov 22, 2024 4:20 AM
#15 · Nov 22, 4:19 AM
HO
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pattersaur wrote:
Biggest difference to me with this team versus some of the Kirk ones, is we have yet to lay a total egg.

Losing to the Rams on TNF by 10 is the closest we've come, and that game was horribly officiated and felt closer than the final score. And the only other loss was DET by 2.

As insane as it is to say, I'd feel better about putting $50 on this team to win the SB today, and having a snowball's shot of cashing it, than any team for sure since Keenum's year. And maybe since '09. I could be dead wrong and we could tank as soon as this weekend but I don't think so. Keep turnovers somewhat in check and I like our team and coaching a lot the rest of the way.

Btw Hockenson is back but hasn't been "back". He's still only been playing half the time. Hopefully this weekend we see more, especially if my guy Oliver is out. Hockenson is a difference maker.


I have been pounding that drum since the beginning of the season. This is the best Vikings team in years.
If they can continue beating the teams they should beat, they will be in a good position to challenge for the division.
The Bears aren't likely to be pushovers. A division game on the road at soldier field is going to be a challenge. I believe this Vikings team will be up for the challenge and notch another victory.
Just have to keep stacking them up, one game at a time; one play at a time.

#16 · Nov 22, 7:54 AM
purplefaithful
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hogjowlsjohnny wrote:
I have been pounding that drum since the beginning of the season. This is the best Vikings team in years. If they can continue beating the teams they should beat, they will be in a good position to challenge for the division. The Bears aren't likely to be pushovers. A division game on the road at soldier field is going to be a challenge. I believe this Vikings team will be up for the challenge and notch another victory. Just have to keep stacking them up, one game at a time; one play at a time.

Maybe its just the recency of the Titans game, but I wish the Vikings could run the ball better. In the red zone, on 3rd down, when they have to. 

RB really needs to be on their radar next off-season/draft. Not in front of a good corner or IL, but its up there.

Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger! 

#17 · Nov 22, 9:55 AM
MaroonBells
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purplefaithful wrote:

Maybe its just the recency of the Titans game, but I wish the Vikings could run the ball better. In the red zone, on 3rd down, when they have to. 

RB really needs to be on their radar next off-season/draft. Not in front of a good corner or IL, but its up there.

Was just talking to a friend about that. I don't like the free agent RBs in 2025. I'd like to see the Vikings re-sign Murphy and bring in DJ Reed at corner. With the money we'll have, we might even be able to add Trey Smith at guard, giving us a choice between the DT and the best RB in the 1st round. I'd be happy with either.

#18 · Nov 22, 10:42 AM
JimmyinSD
JimmyinSD
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I don't think the RB is our issue, it either the scheme or the IOL. We have had no short yardage or on demand running game in a long time, over several RBs, i dont think a shiny new toy os gonna fix this. If something is broken, buy some fucking tools, not toys. Get some beef eating road graders and quit trying to scheme a power running game...actually have a power running game. Would also likely give us a leg up against these monster athletic DTs that we seem to suffer against about 1/3 of the schedule each year.

I think we are seeing the migration of money. The bug athletic uglies have found more money as DTs, teams that want to win will need to be willing to over pay for both IOL AND IDL to ensure they can handle both sides of the LOS.

Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?

#19 · Nov 22, 2:16 PM
MaroonBells
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JimmyinSD wrote:
I don't think the RB is our issue,  it either the scheme or the IOL.  We have had no short yardage or on demand running game in a long time,  over several RBs,  i dont think a shiny new toy os gonna fix this.  If something is broken,  buy some fucking tools, not toys.  Get some beef eating road graders and quit trying to scheme a power running game...actually have a power running game.  Would also likely give us a leg up against these monster athletic DTs that we seem to suffer against about 1/3 of the schedule each year.

I think we are seeing the migration of money.  The bug athletic uglies have found more money as DTs,  teams that want to win will need to be willing to over pay for both IOL AND IDL to ensure they can handle both sides of the LOS.

I agree with you that the RBs are not the biggest problem with our goal line running game. But the fact remains Aaron Jones is a free agent and a week away from 30 and neither Ty Chandler or Cam Akers is the answer. We're going to add a starting-caliber RB to this roster. The only question is whether it's in free agency or the draft.

#20 · Nov 22, 10:57 PM
KN
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MaroonBells wrote:

Was just talking to a friend about that. I don't like the free agent RBs in 2025. I'd like to see the Vikings re-sign Murphy and bring in DJ Reed at corner. With the money we'll have, we might even be able to add Trey Smith at guard, giving us a choice between the DT and the best RB in the 1st round. I'd be happy with either.

As of today, Trey Smith is my #1 FA target. Hope that he does hit the market

#21 · Nov 23, 2:27 AM
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Forum The Longship Vikings a "legit" 8-2

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