JJ Mac ... I don't get it

JimmyinSD wrote:

well if that system is one that can run the ball at will, and having a defense that doesnt surrender many points... potential landings spots for success will be pretty limited.
the closer we get to draft day,  the more I tend to like Nix,  just because he has had to be the man, and has proven he can play at a high level when he needs to.  Oregon was only held under 35 points 3 times last year,  never less than 30.

Highest QB Passer Rating Since 2022:

🟢 Bo Nix, Oregon: 126.1 pic.twitter.com/TtoUZ6CVB3

— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 17, 2024

There have been rumors that JJ ran a 4.48 before the '23 season. Take that with a grain of salt because unofficial times are pretty meaningless. But he shows some pretty remarkable speed here....

This is why coaches love JJ McCarthy...pic.twitter.com/MotcEzWQkj

— Mighty Kaos aka Coach Williams 🏈 (@mightykaos41) April 14, 2024

JimmyinSD wrote:

well if that system is one that can run the ball at will, and having a defense that doesnt surrender many points... potential landings spots for success will be pretty limited.

the closer we get to draft day,  the more I tend to like Nix,  just because he has had to be the man, and has proven he can play at a high level when he needs to.  Oregon was only held under 35 points 3 times last year,  never less than 30.

If it comes down to 5 vs 6 I (couch guy) vastly prefer Nix to Penix. Penix' fast 40 time didn't raise him in my mind, it did the opposite. Dude has wheels as a weapon and almost never used it. In the championship game he was getting mobbed in the backfield but didn't pull the ball down and run... why? In fact he rarely took off all last year. What that means to each NFL team will be different but for me it seems silly to have that weapon in your arsenal and not use it. Suspect, to say the least. Huskies also have two first round WRs he was throwing to. I don't dispute his talent and I'll get on board if the Vikes draft him but he is firmly 6th on my wish list.

pattersaur wrote:

If it comes down to 5 vs 6 I (couch guy) vastly prefer Nix to Penix. Penix' fast 40 time didn't raise him in my mind, it did the opposite. Dude has wheels as a weapon and almost never used it. In the championship game he was getting mobbed in the backfield but didn't pull the ball down and run... why? In fact he rarely took off all last year. What that means to each NFL team will be different but for me it seems silly to have that weapon in your arsenal and not use it. Suspect, to say the least. Huskies also have two first round WRs he was throwing to. I don't dispute his talent and I'll get on board if the Vikes draft him but he is firmly 6th on my wish list.

I see it the opposite way. The fact that he can run but didn't suggests that he's disciplined himself to remain in the pocket. I think the biggest hurdle to overcome for athletic college QBs is pocket discipline--to not run at the first sign of trouble, real or imagined. I think that discipline helps him in the NFL game.

MaroonBells wrote:

I see it the opposite way. The fact that he can run but didn't suggests that he's disciplined himself to remain in the pocket. I think the biggest hurdle to overcome for athletic college QBs is pocket discipline--to not run at the first sign of trouble, real or imagined. I think that discipline helps him in the NFL game.

Yes, that is the way I see it as well.  It's a positive, let your playmakers make the plays.

JimmyinSD wrote:

well if that system is one that can run the ball at will, and having a defense that doesnt surrender many points... potential landings spots for success will be pretty limited.

the closer we get to draft day,  the more I tend to like Nix,  just because he has had to be the man, and has proven he can play at a high level when he needs to.  Oregon was only held under 35 points 3 times last year,  never less than 30.

I'm with you here.  KOC was just quoted as saying he wants....Accuracy - Bo Nix just broke the NCAA completion percentage on 470 attempts and a 9.6 YPA,  Toughness - Bo Nix at Oregon had 21 rushing TD's and a 5.3 YPR.  He has a solid build compared to some of the other Quarterbacks like JJ.  6'3,  215lbs.  Same height as JJ and about 18 more pounds.  I know next to nothing about QB's I am very stats driven which I know is only a part of the story.  I really don't know why Nix is not getting more love??

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......yet there's a reason Nix doesn't seem to be considered a top 5 QB. Or so its thought RIGHT NOW. NFL GMs might think differently.

[quote="MaroonBells" pid="227222" dateline="1713441241"]

NFL GMs know the short passing game Nix was in. Things like passer rating, completion percentage are going to be inflated due to that. Doesn't mean he can't be a great NFL QB though. Its like all this talk about JJ being a winner. He just wins. No, Michigan just won. He really didn't have a helluva a lot to do with it.
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Yep, its going to be really interesting. JJM is such an unproven quantity: he's made some really good plays.....but not many of them. But he didn't have to often.  The Michigan offense just wasn't build around the passing game. I wonder if it was any kind of revelation to NFL GMs that Nix's arm turned out to be stronger than advertised? And when you watch Penix, his big arm and that downfield accuracy....not sure how you can't be impressed. Lots of back and forth on these guys.

Only a week away now.

JimmyinSD wrote:

well if that system is one that can run the ball at will, and having a defense that doesnt surrender many points... potential landings spots for success will be pretty limited.

the closer we get to draft day,  the more I tend to like Nix,  just because he has had to be the man, and has proven he can play at a high level when he needs to.  Oregon was only held under 35 points 3 times last year,  never less than 30.

Exactly. JJM hasn't been asked to do much of anything. I see him as pretty limited. Nix has played in a bit of a gimmick offense and competition.   

JJM is strictly a projection pick. There’s nothing in his actual play that screams elite QB. What does standout for him is top tier arm talent and great athleticism. He’s shown himself to be cool under pressure and able to make all the throws necessary.

When it comes to reviewing a QB’s performance, winning percentage or a title mean absolutely nothing to me. JJM played on a stacked team that didn’t ask much of him. That’s not his fault, but it’s certainly not a positive for him personally. If you watch the games, they win a lot where he had very little to do with it.

As for natural QB accuracy here are Nix’s stats downfield on the year:

Per PFF Nix was 62 of 91 on passes of 10-19 yards for 1,169 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception for a passing grade of 94.7. His passing grade on attempts 20+ yards downfield was 95.5 (26 of 51 for 999 yards, 13 TD, 2 INT). 

His passing grade on deep throws (20+ yards) was tied with Caleb Williams. He was No. 1 in college football on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) with a 94.7 grade. For context, Drake Maye's grade on intermediate throws was 83.8 and Williams' grade was 78.0.

Nix’s receivers dropped a lot of balls. When you take out drops and throwaways, his accuracy was something like 85%. He had guys in bombs drop them, slow up, and trip and fall down or those stats would have been even better.

I think Nix is rated much higher by some NFL teams. I read one of the most ridiculous claims the other day where a GM reportedly told a reporter he thought Nix was like a 5th round pick. That tells me at least one team is in love with him haha!

Havoc wrote:
JJM is strictly a projection pick. There’s nothing in his actual play that screams elite QB. What does standout for him is top tier arm talent and great athleticism. He’s shown himself to be cool under pressure and able to make all the throws necessary.

When it comes to reviewing a QB’s performance, winning percentage or a title mean absolutely nothing to me. JJM played on a stacked team that didn’t ask much of him. That’s not his fault, but it’s certainly not a positive for him personally. If you watch the games, they win a lot where he had very little to do with it.

As for natural QB accuracy here are Nix’s stats downfield on the year:

Per PFF Nix was 62 of 91 on passes of 10-19 yards for 1,169 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception for a passing grade of 94.7. His passing grade on attempts 20+ yards downfield was 95.5 (26 of 51 for 999 yards, 13 TD, 2 INT). 

His passing grade on deep throws (20+ yards) was tied with Caleb Williams. He was No. 1 in college football on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) with a 94.7 grade. For context, Drake Maye's grade on intermediate throws was 83.8 and Williams' grade was 78.0.

Nix’s receivers dropped a lot of balls. When you take out drops and throwaways, his accuracy was something like 85%. He had guys in bombs drop them, slow up, and trip and fall down or those stats would have been even better.

I think Nix is rated much higher by some NFL teams. I read one of the most ridiculous claims the other day where a GM reportedly told a reporter he thought Nix was like a 5th round pick. That tells me at least one team is in love with him haha!

I think McCarthy's winning percentage and Nix's completion percentage should both be thrown out considering the offenses they were in.

I think its fair to say at this point that JJ and Nix are probably the most polarizing of the 6 qb's.

purplefaithful wrote:
I think its fair to say at this point that JJ and Nix are probably the most polarizing of the 6 qb's.

Oh I don't know. After Williams and Daniels, there's a lot of disagreement about Maye and Penix too. We have people saying that Maye would be the undisputed 1st overall pick 9 years out of 10. Others who put him 6th.

Nix played basically the same opponents as Penix and Williams, i would discount the opponents for all 3, but then how does Williams get the undisputed #1 spot when he really looked like the worst of the 3 pac QBs this year IMO. As far as a gimmick O? I dont know about that, what is a gimmick O, if its a winning O does it translate to the pro game, many say it will, so what is gimmicky if the demands of the position are the same, kirk made a living on the short yardage stuff and then asking his receivers to make plays on many occasions, if they give you something, you take it, and keep taking it until they take it away as long as its moving the chains and putting points on the board, and thats the rule at every level of football. baseball is the only stupid game where you dont take what they give you because of some unwritten rules.

lol, polarizing is in the eye of the beholder. JJ McCarthy is a lump of clay that KOC would love to have. Not sure it will happen.

JimmyinSD wrote:
Nix played basically the same opponents as Penix and Williams,  i would discount the opponents for all 3,  but then how does Williams get the undisputed #1 spot when he really looked like the worst of the 3 pac QBs this year IMO.  As far as a gimmick O?  I dont know about that,  what is a gimmick O,  if its a winning O does it translate to the pro game,  many say it will, so what is gimmicky if the demands of the position are the same,  kirk made a living on the short yardage stuff and then asking his receivers to make plays on many occasions,  if they give you something,  you take it,  and keep taking it until they take it away as long as its moving the chains and putting points on the board,  and thats the rule at every level of football.  baseball is the only stupid game where you dont take what they give you  because of some unwritten rules.

I am on the west coast and watched a lot of PAC12, which was one of the most competitive top to bottom and ended up with 3 teams in the top 11.  I watched almost every snap of Williams during his USC career and he was easily the most impressive college QB I have ever seen in college, he can do it all, consistently reminded me of Mahomes.  He had an awful OL and was running from the time he got the snap on most plays, he also had a terrible defense so always had to play from behind.  

I am a huge Nix fan and think he is being really undervalued.  He has all the tools and the most underrated thing about his game is that he is a competitor and will do whatever it takes to win, great leader.  I see a lot of Drew Brees in his game in that he is not flashy, which is why he may be overlooked, but he just finds a way to get it done.  Penix has incredible arm talent, but I don't think he has the mental toughness that Nix has, one thing that always bugged me about him is that when the games were tight at the end and they were on defense, he would hide his head in some equipment case and not watch.

JR44 wrote:

I am on the west coast and watched a lot of PAC12, which was one of the most competitive top to bottom and ended up with 3 teams in the top 11.  I watched almost every snap of Williams during his USC career and he was easily the most impressive college QB I have ever seen in college, he can do it all, consistently reminded me of Mahomes.  He had an awful OL and was running from the time he got the snap on most plays, he also had a terrible defense so always had to play from behind.  

I am a huge Nix fan and think he is being really undervalued.  He has all the tools and the most underrated thing about his game is that he is a competitor and will do whatever it takes to win, great leader.  I see a lot of Drew Brees in his game in that he is not flashy, which is why he may be overlooked, but he just finds a way to get it done.  Penix has incredible arm talent, but I don't think he has the mental toughness that Nix has, one thing that always bugged me about him is that when the games were tight at the end and they were on defense, he would hide his head in some equipment case and not watch.

I thought Williams over reaction to pressure caused a fair amount of their offensive troubles,   he ran around when he didn't need to,  sometimes it worked out,  sometimes it didn't,   but I think he was to quick to scramble,  where Penix was the opposite,  stood tall, often a tick to long,  but was able to make more plays because he wasn't running around taking his eyes off downfield.  Williams looked like the show,  but Penix, IMO,  was the show.   Time will tell.

MaroonBells wrote:

I think McCarthy's winning percentage and Nix's completion percentage should both be thrown out considering the offenses they were in.

I agree, I think you throw out the behind the line completely if you want to get an accurate picture. Even though other players throw their share, if he still has good numbers with all his behind the line brows out, it definitely tells you something.

Seems like he's got what Kirk didn't have, winning the big games. Im sure the powers that be know what they are doing and will do their do diligence

This is my guy. Final stamp of approval. JJ McCarthy as a Viking.

I'll get behind other guys if that happens, but this is my preference.