JJ Mac ... I don't get it

I have zero preference on which QB they take, I'd just like them to take a swing for once. That said, and this is in no way directed at the OP, merely a general observation of this board.

But since Cousins came aboard we heard insesently that the only stat that matters is a QBs W-L record. Specifically prime time and against winning teams. KC leaves and people start advocating for a massive trade for Herbert. Who, puts up stats but hasn't shown he checks those ever elusive QB W-L stats.

JJM is a winner who wins on the biggest stages in one of the top 2 conferences in NCAAF. Was coached by the guy many Vikes fans wanted as HC. Obviously it's "lying season" but reports since the national championship game are KOC is a fan. Cousins sure as heck looked much improved under KOC. And until he shows me otherwise I'll trust KOC's ability to judge QB talent.

As for his stats in the selected games. That's the way the team was built. Play defense, run the ball, control the clock. They were tied for first with 40 rushing TDs. Their average scoring margin was second best at 25.5 points. Not exactly a reason to go out and throw the ball around when you are up big early and often.

As I recall, the phrase "garbage stats" used to be thrown around here often. If he had more stats in games where they were up 20 points early would that make people more comfortable? Or would they be garbage stats?

He has question marks like the rest of em...

I have no idea if he's a game manager or game changer. Harbaugh didnt use him in a way that makes that easy to answer. I suspect most Viking fans would be happy to have him.

If (big if) the opportunity would present itself, I would rather the Vikings select Maye or Daniels. But for what additional comp??? I dont know and glad its not my butt on the line for any of this qb decision making.

He's 100% a projection pick. The other side of the coin is that if you look at the highest producing QBs in college history a good 3/4 of them were busts in the NFL. Leinart, Young, Mariota, etc.

Still Hurtn wrote:
National Champ game 10-18 for 140

Against OSU 16-20 for 148

Against Maryland 12-23 for 141

Penn St 7-8 for 60 (no passes 2nd half)

He had some good games last year I just don't see him as some prolific passer. How is he going to be any different then

Ponder, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Trabisky and a like. 

Good kid, athletic, belongs in the league. Just don't see him lighting it up in the NFL.

It's hard for me to think a QB that couldn't light it up in college is going to light up the NFL. I know Harbaugh's offense doesn't run through the QB, but these numbers are real head scratchers; especially if you think he can do better against the NFL.

I like him, I just don't like him enough or think he's bust proof enough to mortgage three first round picks to get, including next years 1st. Theres just no way. I'd rather keep the picks, take Byron Murphy at #11 and use the #23 pick to maneuver up or down for Nix or Penix. You can't go all in for the 4th rated QB in this draft who by most accounts is probably a mid to late first rounder in most normal drafts.

"Penix was always our guy."

Anyone else just braced for this statement from KO and Kwesi next Thursday night?

I'd love Maye and I'd like JJM. Both-- especially JJ-- are projections like Maroon said. But the tools are there. Penix has already shown it (except in that one game), but he also has the injury history and is older. It's a tough call but I'd be happier with I think any of the other 5, especially the top 4, over Penix. But I've been very wrong before.

I just hope we draft a QB and whoever the heck we get can play some football.

PurplePastor wrote:

It's hard for me to think a QB that couldn't light it up in college is going to light up the NFL. I know Harbaugh's offense doesn't run through the QB, but these numbers are real head scratchers; especially if you think he can do better against the NFL.

Full disclosure, I watched all of 4 Michigan games, and while I won't pretend to be one of the many interwebs scouts on this board. I guess I didn't see that he couldn't put up numbers, the need was never there. I did see games where he had quite productive first halves and the team was up big so they ran the ball in the second half. Again other than padding "garbage time" stats what's the point in throwing it around when you're in firm control of the game defensively and on the ground?

I'd suggest going back through the box scores and game recaps of some of the games listed to garner a bit of context for the numbers. The natty for example they rushed for over 300 yards and averaged 8 ypc. If you're that successful on the ground and never trail why go away from what's quite obviously working?

I also think 3 #1's is too much for JJ. I would however take that swing for Daniels or Maye.

But would you mortgage 11 and 23 for JJ? Leaving us with not another pick till what? Rd 4 this draft?

But we'd have our #1 for 2025. I'd have to trust KOC?/KAM on that one.

supafreak84 wrote:
I like him, I just don't like him enough or think he's bust proof enough to mortgage three first round picks to get, including next years 1st. Theres just no way. I'd rather keep the picks, take Byron Murphy at #11 and use the #23 pick to maneuver up or down for Nix or Penix. You can't go all in for the 4th rated QB in this draft who by most accounts is probably a mid to late first rounder in most normal drafts.

Goes against what I just said about wanting them to take a swing for once. But dependent on who they could get at 11 I wouldn't be too upset by something along the lines of what you just laid out. At the end of the day for myself personally I'm not going to get high or low during or immediately after the draft. I'm getting too dang old to pull what little remaining hair out I have based on a selection before they've even played a down.

I would not trade up at all for Maye or JJ. Not at all. If they fall to 11, I would take one. If not, I am perfectly happy with Penix, Turner, Newton, Murphy II, Mitchell, Latu, Verse. And then see who is there at 23. Full disclosure: I like Darnold more than most and have no problem going into the season with him as a starter. If he sucks and we go 5 and 12, we can pick a QB next year. I have been waiting for a SB ring for decades. I can wait another year.

Probably the least college football fan on this board but I am beginning to feel that all the pundits are wrong. This is based simply on a feeling from all the spin out there but I don't think NE likes Maye or JJ. I have a feeling both may drop into the double digits. Every year, a hyped QB drops.

supafreak84 wrote:
I like him, I just don't like him enough or think he's bust proof enough to mortgage three first round picks to get, including next years 1st. Theres just no way. I'd rather keep the picks, take Byron Murphy at #11 and use the #23 pick to maneuver up or down for Nix or Penix. You can't go all in for the 4th rated QB in this draft who by most accounts is probably a mid to late first rounder in most normal drafts.

How is the #4 QB in a QB heavy draft,  being projected to go top 10 in said heavy QB draft,  gi8ng to fall to the mid to late 1st in a normal draft that would have less QB talent?  In a normal year IMO JJM is ranked coming off the board top 10 for sure.

anybody else notice his "highlights" are poor passes that his receivers make great catches on? Thos are picks or PDs in the NFL.

JJ is the mystery meat of the draft. He was asked to do so much less than the other "Big 6" QB's. I also would rather not trade up for him. If he falls to us fine.

College football and the NFL are two totally different sports. NFL draft history is pretty clear that production at the college level has utterly zero bearing on success in the NFL. 

When I think of McCarthy I think of Diggs. Like McCarthy, Diggs was a 5-star recruit who went to a program that didn't showcase his skills. If Diggs had gone to OSU and stayed healthy, he would've been a 1st round pick. What would we be thinking of JJ right now if he'd gone to LSU? 

I have no idea if McCarthy is going to be able to play in the NFL or not. No clue. But I like that he was a 5-star recruit, has one of the strongest arms in the draft, and has a 4.48 on record. If he's got the "IT" NFL teams are looking for, then those are some pretty tantalizing traits to go with it.

JJM was a very good college QB. But he had an elite RB and Defense on that Michigan championship team. I just do not see him as a passing QB in a passing league, and I agree that I don't see his game being fully rounded for the NFL.
I keep going back to Bo Nix who was a pass-first QB, got better every year, put up record numbers in completions (KOC: "accuracy") and was a threat with his legs (744 yards rushing in his two years at Oregon). He literally doubled his passing yards from his last year at Auburn to his second year at Oregon (2,294 to 4,508) increased his Avg Yards per completion from 7.1 to 9.6. The knock on Nix playing in an offense that relied too heavily on short bubble screens doesn't really translate in his numbers. His last three years in college he threw 85 TDs to 13 picks. Again, that speaks to accuracy and good decisions in the pocket.
And to anyone who thinks that a 24-year old rookie QB is too old...I look at so many rookie QBs who never blossomed in the NFL because (as stated in previous posts) too many young, good QBs get drafted by bad teams and get overwhelmed. So many good QBs have their best years AFTER age 30. I'm not a fan of a 21 or 22 year old QB at the helm.

Penix Jr is a pure passer who I like, but not quite as accurate (@65%), and no rushing stats to speak of. If the Vikings don't take Nix at 11, Denver will snag him at 12.

He is a system guy but if he is in the right system, he will be successful

pattersaur wrote:
"Penix was always our guy."

Anyone else just braced for this statement from KO and Kwesi next Thursday night?

Well he's my guy so it won't bother me if it happens.

Vikergirl wrote:
He is a system guy but if he is in the right system, he will be successful

well if that system is one that can run the ball at will, and having a defense that doesnt surrender many points... potential landings spots for success will be pretty limited.

the closer we get to draft day,  the more I tend to like Nix,  just because he has had to be the man, and has proven he can play at a high level when he needs to.  Oregon was only held under 35 points 3 times last year,  never less than 30.

JimmyinSD wrote:

well if that system is one that can run the ball at will, and having a defense that doesnt surrender many points... potential landings spots for success will be pretty limited.
the closer we get to draft day,  the more I tend to like Nix,  just because he has had to be the man, and has proven he can play at a high level when he needs to.  Oregon was only held under 35 points 3 times last year,  never less than 30.

Highest QB Passer Rating Since 2022:

🟢 Bo Nix, Oregon: 126.1 pic.twitter.com/TtoUZ6CVB3

— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 17, 2024