Forum The Longship How much draft picks are worth

How much draft picks are worth

medaille
Joined Mar 2014
670 posts
Rep: 892

Saw this today for the first time.  It's interesting how different the actual value of a pick is compared to what we think it's worth.

#1 · Oct 12, 2:13 PM
DE
Joined Apr 2026
206,342 posts
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That was very good. Very informative.I would like to add; some of us fans are getting up in age and so we don't want the long term solution.

#2 · Oct 12, 6:00 PM
DE
Joined Apr 2026
206,342 posts
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Unfortunately our picks are not work very much with the current GM

#3 · Oct 12, 9:01 PM
DE
Joined Apr 2026
206,342 posts
Rep: 0

I think there's little doubt its incredibly foolish to move up in the top of the first round to grab a QB. If Goff and Vick are your 'maybes', then the reward will NEVER be worth the compensation. Yet it keeps happening, almost every year. IMO, I just don't see how Bryce Young is ever, ever going to be worth it (using the latest example). Mahomes is a unicorn. And that's really the answer to the suboptimal moving up mentioned.....all the GMs are hunting unicorns. Good luck with that. 

Its a very interesting video, but by far the best formula and strategy is hitting on the picks you do make. 

#4 · Oct 13, 5:33 AM
DE
Joined Apr 2026
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I think the message should be get better at selecting players if you are going to target one to move up for.  I dont trust this current brain trust to move up and make the right selection.

#5 · Oct 13, 5:40 AM
DE
Joined Apr 2026
206,342 posts
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This is really interesting and I agree with about 90% of it.  It would seem the biggest takeaway from this is that it's wise to trade down. As much as possible. But I think everyone already knew that. 

#6 · Oct 13, 6:33 AM
DE
Joined Apr 2026
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@"StickyBun" said: I think there's little doubt its incredibly foolish to move up in the top of the first round to grab a QB. If Goff and Vick are your 'maybes', then the reward will NEVER be worth the compensation. Yet it keeps happening, almost every year. IMO, I just don't see how Bryce Young is ever, ever going to be worth it (using the latest example). Mahomes is a unicorn. And that's really the answer to the suboptimal moving up mentioned.....all the GMs are hunting unicorns. Good luck with that. 

Its a very interesting video, but by far the best formula and strategy is hitting on the picks you do make. 

I agree, after Caleb Williams, there is Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy, and Drake Maye. At least one will be there for us. Any one of those is much better than what we are used to. Think about the teams that will actually pick a QB in the first round, there are only a few.

#7 · Oct 13, 7:37 AM
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Forum The Longship How much draft picks are worth

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