Time running out on Trey Lance?

Sounds like NFL teams saw through the hype when the 49ers tried to trade him last spring. He might have had SOME value then, but no longer. To paraphrase Lincoln, sometimes it's better to sit a QB and let the NFL wonder if he might suck, than to play him and remove all doubt. 

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

I have nothing against Brock Purdy, seems like a nice kid and such, but....FU to the 49ers for getting lucky with him and not paying the price for trading the farm to get Lance and setting back the franchise years. 

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

Best thing for Lance at this point would be to come back home, get out of the media spotlight, spend a year working with KC/KOC/Staff and get re-grounded. 

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game.  4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance.  Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers.  Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run.  Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.  

Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players.  Impressive 4th round pick.  Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL.  Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.  

@"Zanary" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

THIS.

I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts.  With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Zanary" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

THIS.

I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts.  With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.

2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)

Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.

To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust. 

The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.

Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.

Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine ).

@"AGRforever" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Zanary" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

THIS.

I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts.  With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.

2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)

Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.

To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust. 

The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.

Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.

Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine ).

Do we?  We can ride the Kirko train for 4-5 more years easily if we choose to do so. 

A lot of college teams run some sort of RPO offense and which doesn't really prepare a young quarterback to succeed as a high draft pick in the NFL, unless your somebody like Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes.  A young guy in college will have a great season stat wise and NFL GM's eager to get their QBOTF will swing for the fences and draft this kid put them in a position to save a franchise and then give them a year or two to find success.  If they don't find it, move on to the next guy.  Nobody gives them time anymore to grow and develop which is what is happening to Lance.  Win now or we move on to the next guy, in this case Purdy.

@"Greylock" said: A lot of college teams run some sort of RPO offense and which doesn't really prepare a young quarterback to succeed as a high draft pick in the NFL, unless your somebody like Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes.  A young guy in college will have a great season stat wise and NFL GM's eager to get their QBOTF will swing for the fences and draft this kid put them in a position to save a franchise and then give them a year or two to find success.  If they don't find it, move on to the next guy.  Nobody gives them time anymore to grow and develop which is what is happening to Lance.  Win now or we move on to the next guy, in this case Purdy.

Lets hope it doesnt work out for Love, cause the optics of how they managed that are also good. 

Kirk's already an outlier in terms of consistency and reliability, so it'd be odd to dismiss his ability to play at his current level a bit longer.

As for the QBs shown...eh?  Kyler shows every sign of being a bust despite having the tools.  Watson might be his own worst enemy...which Allen certainly understands.

I actually would be all for getting Lance, as long as he came very cheaply...because he'd have a chance to either rise or fall without the pressures of what SF traded for him.  He'd have some known tools, be very inexpensive, and could compete with Hall...

...while they both learn behind Kirk for probably 3 seasons.  Barring a VERY unlikely disastrous season, I think Kirk's back for one more extension...because there's no other viable plan in place.

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

I have nothing against Brock Purdy, seems like a nice kid and such, but....FU to the 49ers for getting lucky with him and not paying the price for trading the farm to get Lance and setting back the franchise years. 

And to think, there were people on this board who thought sending KC to San Francisco in a trade for Lance was not only a real possibility but made total sense. 

@"minny65" said: For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game.  4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance.  Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers.  Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run.  Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.  

Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players.  Impressive 4th round pick.  Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL.  Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.  

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Greylock" said: A lot of college teams run some sort of RPO offense and which doesn't really prepare a young quarterback to succeed as a high draft pick in the NFL, unless your somebody like Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes.  A young guy in college will have a great season stat wise and NFL GM's eager to get their QBOTF will swing for the fences and draft this kid put them in a position to save a franchise and then give them a year or two to find success.  If they don't find it, move on to the next guy.  Nobody gives them time anymore to grow and develop which is what is happening to Lance.  Win now or we move on to the next guy, in this case Purdy.

Much as they had a horseshoe up their asz going from Favre to Rogers, I commend the Pack org for how they actually executed those transitions. 

Lets hope it doesnt work out for Love, cause the optics of how they managed that are also good. 

I’m not sold on Purdy either. He played well when he had the chance, but we all know how NFL defenses tend to figure out young guys once they have some tape. 
The issue with Lance is no different than when he was coming out and really hasn’t changed at this point. Limited overall experience prior to the NFL and limited reps since coming in. The guy only threw 318 passes throughout college and that wasn’t at a top level program against top flight competition. On top of that, he has to overcome the injury bug and mentally dealing with that. He’s lost a ton of time both in college and the NFL. Right now he’s coming off of a 2nd ankle surgery. 
Lance would be best served on a team with a proven veteran and given time to heal up and get his head right. He should never have been a top draft pick and the 9ers took a monster chance on a guy with very limited experience. 
The Vikings would be an ideal place for him, but he’d have to be signed to the roster as I see him grabbed off the PS. That brings into play losing their most recent drafted QB if he is moved to PS. 
If I were the 49ers, I wouldn’t cut him. I’d let him work through it with more time.