A Weekend Mock to Pass the Time
I hope to get back and post a mock on draft day but wanted to take a stab at a potential scenario. Although I do think there is a more real chance the Vikings sacrifice their sheer # of picks this year to move up for a QB I played the alternative outcome of moving back since its every so slightly more likely. While drafting at #23 remains possible I've gathered the sense they will move up or down to target a player they love or back to accumulate picks to better position their needs to player values.
1(23): TRADE. Aforementioned but the Vikings move down in this scenario with the Steelers at 2(32). If the board falls right and the Steelers pick at #17 MN may end up being a good trade partner since they can let a potential OT target slide through and come back up 5 selections later. The Vikings also give-up 5(158) but pickup 3(80) to make the move backwards worthwhile.
2(32): TRADE...again! Now we are talking about a real Vikings draft day. Kicking off night two the Vikings hold a pick with more inherent value than most. Its a strategy that appealed to them last year, why not do it again? In this case they move back to 2(40) with NO moving up for a WR. The Vikings end up moving 2(32) for 2(40), 4(115), and 5(165).
2(40) via NO: DJ Turner (CB - Michigan): After moving back the Vikings position themselves to either select a falling WR or CB. Turner is not often talked about but is one of the better CBs in this year's class. Although small he mirrors well and can play a physical brand of football both inside and outside. Positional flexibility in the secondary is huge to the FO and coaching staff with Turner hitting all athletic thresholds. He should be a day one started in the nickel which will allow they to play Murphy as a chess piece based on matchup. E.G he can shadow receivers in and out of the slot. Its a nice luxury. Aside from Turner and Murphy the Vikings expect both Booth & Evans to contribute at the other outside CB spot.
3(69) via LAR: Jonathan Mingo (WR - Ole Miss): Now the Vikings move up to fill their need at WR with Mingo. While I'm not sure who they would choose amongst a group of Mingo, Mims and Dell I do think they can add a day 1 piece to the offense in this general area. Over the spring I've heard the Vikings prefer a WR 2 who wins underneath and can run away from the defense. This eliminates many of the field stretchers but schematically this actually is a nice wrinkle. If you have a WR2 that can consistently win in that fashion you really need to pick your position if they continue to stack Hockenson and Jefferson. Either bracket Jefferson with a LB and CB instead of a safety or leave the WR 2 1x1 or bracketed with a LB who can no longer plug the run game. The Vikings give 3(80) via PIT and 4(119) for this pick and 6(191).
3(87): Yaya Diaby (DE - Louisville): While I didn't project any player trades in this mock I feel its 50/50 if Za'Darius Smith is on the 2023 roster. Diaby is a bit of a different player but someone who can move up and down the D-line with the quickness and physicality to win in multiple ways. While he needs to continue developing a more consistent pass rushing repertoire, teams are going to love the schematic versatility and toolkit. In my mind we're talking about at worst a rotational pass rusher with the potential to become a regular contributor which is a value when talking about a premium position in the 3rd.
4(115): via NO: Noah Sewell (LB - Oregon): Brian Asamoah is penciled in to start next to Jordan Hicks but that just isn't the long-term solution at the position. How the Vikings approach ILB will be fascinating. Will they prioritize a bigger ILB similar to Sewell to offset Asamoah's lack of mass or go full modern NFL and play two quick undersized LBs? Its a dilemma if they choose to target a LB earlier since you're basically comparing Trenton Simpson to Drew Sanders. They like Sanders FYI. But in Sewell they get a prototypical ILB that has the attributes of what the Patriots/Flores have loved historically. Although he lacks some range he can consume blocs and excels as a pass rusher. He arguably has enough of a skillset to compete with Hicks already. The one caveat is that Flores did trend away from larger LBs with the Dolphins which makes it hard to put on thumb on their physical preferences.
5(165): via NO: Dorian Thompson-Robison (QB - UCLA): The Vikings are heavily invested in this QB class and although the narrative has been they take a shot in the middle rounds, I would not be shocked to see them move into the top 10 for the right QB (likely Stroud or Richardson). We will see. If not, taking a stab with a late round pick in Thompson Robinson is a riskless throw at the dartboard. DTR has a really impressive athletic profile which allows you to really stress the defense with designed runs and roll-outs. He passes well enough to keep the defense honest. There are some long-term questions on accuracy and the ability to read an NFL defense outside of Chip Kelly's offense. But he has enough intriguing tools to take a chance. Off the field there are concerns on maturity which is why he may drop vs. his consensus rankings. But at this point it makes too much sense.
6(191): via LAR: Evan Hull (RB - Northwestern): Its a matter or days until Dalvin Cook is likely no longer a Vikings. Once the backfield is turned over the Mattison & Chandler they will need a bit more depth. Hull is an underrated prospect who may not be a RB1 in the NFL but has the profile to be a swiss-army knife #2 who can play in the league for many years. He can run between the tackles but also excels in the passing game. For a 6th round pick he is one of the safer choices if you're looking for prospect that would likely make the roster and provide some long-term value. In time he arguably could develop into a starting level back similar to Mattison. A strong contributor for a team who wants to focus on passing the ball.
6(211): Andrew Vorhees (OG - USC): Who knows if Vorhees will fall this far come draft weekend, but teams always shy away from immediate contributors. Vorhees likely will need a season to rehab after suffering an injury at the combine but I could see the Vikings viewing this as surplus value. Prior to the injury he was likely a 3rd round pick who had the potential to start at LG in year one. With Ezra Cleveland entering a contract and Ed Ingram still proving his long-term fit along the line I could see Vorhees as a nice long-term hedge. They don't need him now but come next year he very well may have a spot available to him in the starting 5.
Hey Geoff,
Thanks for the time and effort. I agree they will need to add some RB depth if Cook leaves. From a needs perspective? This mock hits a lot of them.
I agree, a trade-down is more likely than the opposite. Last year primed me to expect the unexpected from now on with this front office.
I dont think Hicks is the long-term answer for them either...
So many needs, so few picks. I sure hope they start getting some production on D from last years draft too.
Love this draft. First of all, I love the trades down. In every mock draft I do, I trade down at least twice and end up in the late 30s or early 40s. Good value there and the Vikings pick up much needed draft picks.
Turner, Mingo and Diaby are three hot, undervalued players I like a lot right now. Not sure Mingo is there in the 3rd though. If not, Michael Wilson is a receiver I like almost as much, along with AT Perry, both of whom should be there in the 3rd.
Not a fan of Sewell when he was considered a 20-40 pick by many, but I love him in the 4th. Ivan Pace Jr is another day three ILB to consider, but I get what you're doing by adding size to the smallish Asamoah. I don't think the Vikings would add another smallish LB, but IPJ can flat play.
You pick up a developmental QB, and I like DTR a lot more than the other day 3 guys. I'm intrigued by the fact that he's improved every year and Chip Kelly is excited about his potential to grow even more in the NFL.
Hull was my 2nd favorite back at the Senior Bowl, behind only Tyjae Spears, who should go before the Vikings have any business taking a back.
Wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings don't take an OL at all in the draft, but I like your thinking with Vorhees.
Who would they trade up for if the opportunity arises?
I think we are like minded this year as you have a lot of guys I like and had to the Vikings in my mock as well in Mingo and DTR. Mingo is gaining some steam though and probably doesn't get out of the second round. Charlie Weis, who's son is the OC at Ole Miss, was raving about him today and said he's starting to see Mingo being mocked to teams in the late 1st round. I like Noah Sewell more then most and like his fit in this defense. Vorhees would be a great stash pick in the later rounds. Nice job overall Geoff
Solid effort on putting this together.
Like the double trade down. Don't think DTR lasts to 165.
I like it, I like it a lot.
Any particular reason you believe any potential trade-up would "likely" be for Stroud or Richardson?
CJ stroud got a 18% on the cognitive test. Not sure if he’s used to others doing his homework or what happened. With the complexities of the NFL, that should concern people.
I think in 2022 it's fair to say KAM decided pre-draft that he was going to trade down, value be damned.
My best guess is he does the same thing this year, but in the opposite direction. I think we move up for a QB.
If that proves absolutely impossible then a trade back for WR (Zay? Addison?) makes sense.
Geoff I know you mentioned a move into the top 10 for Richardson. That would be an all time swing of swings because of the price tag it would cost to move up and his bust potential. With the amount of holes we have left to fill on this roster and the few draft picks we have, it would take brass balls to do something like that knowing you won't be getting any immediate returns on your investment. How high are the Vikings on Richardson exactly?
@"supafreak84" said: Geoff I know you mentioned a move into the top 10 for Richardson. That would be an all time swing of swings because of the price tag it would cost to move up and his bust potential. With the amount of holes we have left to fill on this roster and the few draft picks we have, it would take brass balls to do something like that knowing you won't be getting any immediate returns on your investment. How high are the Vikings on Richardson exactly?A move like that isn't for this coming season and it would open up a lot of cap space for 25 through 28 which would cover up for the loss of draft picks by being bigger players in FA. I dont support that kind of move, but if they feel that strongly about a player then I won't be bitching right away either.
Update- In the "draft predictions" thread on reddit, 98% of fans are saying trade down. So we're for sure trading up.
@"AGRforever" said: CJ stroud got a 18% on the cognitive test. Not sure if he’s used to others doing his homework or what happened. With the complexities of the NFL, that should concern people.
That level of cognitive aptitude shows up in his decision making. He's the most accurate passer in this draft. But if I were to bet a mortgage payment on one of the top 5 QBs busting, my money's on Stroud.
@"pattersaur" said: Update- In the "draft predictions" thread on reddit, 98% of fans are saying trade down. So we're for sure trading up.
Hard to know what the Vikings will do. And I guess that's a good thing.
Trading up would obviously be for a QB. It would also mean the Vikings are willing to sacrifice adding impactful talent to the '23 team (and perhaps beyond) in order to get the QBOTF on the roster while Cousins is still here.
If the Vikings trade down, it means they want to add impactful talent now for the purpose of contending in '23, they recognize the flexibility that having Cousins provides, and adding the QBOTF is not as important as improving the talent on the roster.
Best of both worlds? Trading down, getting picks, adding talent AND adding the QBOTF. Probably the hardest to actually achieve though.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"pattersaur" said: Update- In the "draft predictions" thread on reddit, 98% of fans are saying trade down. So we're for sure trading up.
Hard to know what the Vikings will do. And I guess that's a good thing.Trading up would obviously be for a QB. It would also mean the Vikings are willing to sacrifice adding impactful talent to the '23 team (and perhaps beyond) in order to get the QBOTF on the roster while Cousins is still here.
If the Vikings trade down, it means they want to add impactful talent now for the purpose of contending in '23, they recognize the flexibility that having Cousins provides, and adding the QBOTF is not as important as improving the talent on the roster.
Best of both worlds? Trading down, getting picks, adding talent AND adding the QBOTF. Probably the hardest to actually achieve though.
It’s not that hard to figure out, I just told you what they’ll do ;).So far this offseason the Vikes have signed a few pieces but there’s been very few meaningful restructures or extensions. Couple that fact with growing rumblings of Cook and Z being gone and I think the Vikings are at the very least keeping their options open regarding the 2023 season heading into the draft. Which I’d say is smart. If the QBOTF doesn’t work out and we somehow wind up with a bunch of ready-to-start talent then okay lets move around some money and run it back. But to me their “Plan A” seems to be to get a QB and take a more longterm approach, based on the tea leaves. Or maybe I’m projecting? I guess we’ll all know soon.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"pattersaur" said: Update- In the "draft predictions" thread on reddit, 98% of fans are saying trade down. So we're for sure trading up.
Hard to know what the Vikings will do. And I guess that's a good thing.Trading up would obviously be for a QB. It would also mean the Vikings are willing to sacrifice adding impactful talent to the '23 team (and perhaps beyond) in order to get the QBOTF on the roster while Cousins is still here.
If the Vikings trade down, it means they want to add impactful talent now for the purpose of contending in '23, they recognize the flexibility that having Cousins provides, and adding the QBOTF is not as important as improving the talent on the roster.
Best of both worlds? Trading down, getting picks, adding talent AND adding the QBOTF. Probably the hardest to actually achieve though.
Or maybe whats available for QB, at a spot they could actually reach, isnt appealing as a QBOTF, so they are stuck and have to either take a lesser QB at 23 or later,, or a different position all together and it has nothing to do with Cousins.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"pattersaur" said: Update- In the "draft predictions" thread on reddit, 98% of fans are saying trade down. So we're for sure trading up.
Hard to know what the Vikings will do. And I guess that's a good thing.Trading up would obviously be for a QB. It would also mean the Vikings are willing to sacrifice adding impactful talent to the '23 team (and perhaps beyond) in order to get the QBOTF on the roster while Cousins is still here.
If the Vikings trade down, it means they want to add impactful talent now for the purpose of contending in '23, they recognize the flexibility that having Cousins provides, and adding the QBOTF is not as important as improving the talent on the roster.
Best of both worlds? Trading down, getting picks, adding talent AND adding the QBOTF. Probably the hardest to actually achieve though.
Or maybe whats available for QB, at a spot they could actually reach, isnt appealing as a QBOTF, so they are stuck and have to either take a lesser QB at 23 or later,, or a different position all together and it has nothing to do with Cousins.
I agree. I just hope they don't take a lessor QB at 23. If they have a QBOTF in mind, they need to go get him. If he isn't available they should wait until next year. The concept of taking what is left if your first choice is gone, is how we ended up with Ponder. If they want to take a flyer on a late round QB, that's fine. But if their first choice isn't attainable, trade down and build the team. Perhaps make some trades and accumulate draft capitol for next year as well.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"pattersaur" said: Update- In the "draft predictions" thread on reddit, 98% of fans are saying trade down. So we're for sure trading up.
Hard to know what the Vikings will do. And I guess that's a good thing.Trading up would obviously be for a QB. It would also mean the Vikings are willing to sacrifice adding impactful talent to the '23 team (and perhaps beyond) in order to get the QBOTF on the roster while Cousins is still here.
If the Vikings trade down, it means they want to add impactful talent now for the purpose of contending in '23, they recognize the flexibility that having Cousins provides, and adding the QBOTF is not as important as improving the talent on the roster.
Best of both worlds? Trading down, getting picks, adding talent AND adding the QBOTF. Probably the hardest to actually achieve though.
Or maybe whats available for QB, at a spot they could actually reach, isnt appealing as a QBOTF, so they are stuck and have to either take a lesser QB at 23 or later,, or a different position all together and it has nothing to do with Cousins.
Every QB is a lesser QB to one degree or another.
Still on the Cousins to SF trade plan here.
This team needs picks, it needs cap room, it needs a shot a QB of the Future.
Cousins for Lance and SF's (2) 3rds gives us 4 picks in the top 100 and removes a $25M+ voided cap hit next year. Moving down in the first to either Seattle, Chicago, NYJ, Steelers would give us (2) 2nds
That gives us 5 picks in the first three rounds PLUS A POTENTIAL QB of the future.
If Lance turns out, you don't need a QB in the 1st round next year and give him a 5th year option. If he doesn't you have 5 players from the top 100 of the 23 draft, cap space, and the 2024 draft to grab a QB with probably a top 10 pick.
2024 has to be the focus with cap room, a potential boatload of 2nd (2 2nds & 3 3rds) and 3rd year players (Cine, Booth, Asomoah), and possible a QB of the future on the roster in Lance
If you don't think we are real Super Bowl contenders this year, you are going to rebuild the roster and make your mark, this is the way to do it
@"Skodin" said: Still on the Cousins to SF trade plan here.This team needs picks, it needs cap room, it needs a shot a QB of the Future.
Cousins for Lance and SF's (2) 3rds gives us 4 picks in the top 100 and removes a $25M+ voided cap hit next year. Moving down in the first to either Seattle, Chicago, NYJ, Steelers would give us (2) 2ndsThat gives us 5 picks in the first three rounds PLUS A POTENTIAL QB of the future.
If Lance turns out, you don't need a QB in the 1st round next year and give him a 5th year option. If he doesn't you have 5 players from the top 100 of the 23 draft, cap space, and the 2024 draft to grab a QB with probably a top 10 pick.
2024 has to be the focus with cap room, a potential boatload of 2nd (2 2nds & 3 3rds) and 3rd year players (Cine, Booth, Asomoah), and possible a QB of the future on the roster in Lance
If you don't think we are real Super Bowl contenders this year, you are going to rebuild the roster and make your mark, this is the way to do it
The problem with this (pretty sound) plan is getting the Wilfs on board. They have shown zero willingness to sacrifice the short term for the long. I get it. Any given Sunday. But what we’ve been doing isn’t working. Maybe we can stay on the same course and just do it better… I’d love that! But it gets hard when you see teams like PHI, JAX, TB, LAR blow things up and have more success, while we wade in the middle of the pack. Winning a SB is obviously the goal but fans are pretty smart in 2023. The stadium will still be full, they’ll still sell a ton of jerseys and $12 hot dogs even if it’s a down year. Heck, Detroit was like .500 last year and talk to their fans and you’d think they were undefeated.
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