Kyler Murray's EPA

😂😂

I think it's pretty obvious by this point that KOC is either unwilling or simply unable to mold his offense and play calls to a QBs strengths. He seems only able to work with a very specific type of QB. QB whisperer my ass, it's either his way or the highway.

Kyler having his worst stretch of football.

McCarthy, through a very small sample size, having his best post KC.

Isn't that the question. It's not just Kyler, it's a string of QBs. Like why were Darnold and Cousins and Stafford (if you want to go back that far) able to make it work, but everyone else wasn't (including Goff who by all accounts seems like he should fit the mold)?

I'm also real curious about McCown given he failed hard at Young and McCarthy.

Gut feel is that it's some combination of the scheme being too complicated, requiring the QB to solve too big a puzzle on the field, too different (not what they're comfortable with), and we're bad at installation (which might also be Flores's fault, because his defense looks so different from every other defense that there's no transferrable practice reps).

It seems like reading a defense is a pre-requisite for his offense, but I think he really needs some way of building a QB up from not being able to read a defense first and then adding other benefits on top of that later.

SFVikingFan wrote:

I think it's pretty obvious by this point that KOC is either unwilling or simply unable to mold his offense and play calls to a QBs strengths. He seems only able to work with a very specific type of QB. QB whisperer my ass, it's either his way or the highway.

I think he's clearly trying to mold it to Kyler's strengths, by that I mean this offense is clearly different, but it still isn't working.

medaille wrote:

I think he's clearly trying to mold it to Kyler's strengths, by that I mean this offense is clearly different, but it still isn't working.

What are those again? 🤔

LOL. The players are singing a different tune. But keep spinning.

I've said it plenty of times: I like KOC as a head coach, but I'm just not a fan of him calling the offensive plays. I was never particularly high on Wes, either, and I'd really like to see us bring in an offensive-minded OC who can take over play-calling and hopefully get this ship pointed in the right direction.

We have the tools to be successful, but we continually seem to get in our own way offensively with KOC calling the plays. IMO, he also seems to struggle with how to utilize QBs who are more effective when they can move around, extend plays, and create off-script rather than operate exclusively from within the pocket. That's a big part of why I think both McCarthy and now Murray have struggled in this offense.

Just look at what Ben Johnson has done with two very different quarterbacks in Goff and Williams. That's exactly the kind of offensive adaptability I'm talking about, and it's why I've been wishing we had someone like Johnson running the show. I was seriously bummed when he landed in Chicago. I'll admit, I was even hoping those early reports about him and Williams not seeing eye to eye would turn into a complete disaster rather than them figuring things out and building what could be an explosive offense for years to come. 😂

We have one of the best receivers in football in Jefferson, along with a very good supporting cast, yet we can't seem to move the freaking ball consistently. At some point, you have to look beyond the QB and ask whether the offensive system and play-calling are putting these guys in the best position to succeed.

I can't imagine what's going through Jefferson's mind watching his prime years go by while this offense struggles to get out of its own way. It's beyond frustrating.

IceRatz16 wrote:

Just look at what Ben Johnson has done with two very different quarterbacks in Goff and Williams.

So here's where I differ: both Goff and Williams were the #1 overall picks in their respective Drafts. I mean, lol, there's a TON to work with there. I know its en vogue to crown Ben Johnson, but don't give him premium and let's see what kind of sandwich he makes. KOC has had 9 different QBs in what, 5 years?

Let Teasley draft the QB and we'll see what kind of whisperer KOC is.

The pure progression offense is supposed to work for QB's who can't read defenses very well. For some reason a lot of the QB's here haven't seemed to benefit from it. Ironicly the better performing QB's have been able to read defenses. That's why Wentz, with all his issues, still performs better than Murray, JJ, and Brosmer.

Murray drops back and as soon as he hits the back of his drop, his feet start to pitter patter or he starts hopping. That usually mean the play is over. Perhaps he would have some accuracy if his feet were on the ground. I think he has a fear of being hit, and rightfully so at his size. He doesn't take full advantage of his running opportunities abd doesn't want to run. When he does run he favors getting out of bounds. On his long run last week, the tight end had the defensive back blocked up and Murray could have had 15 or 20 more yards perhaps but chose to step out of bounds. On his long run ,the game before, all he had to do ws cut to the right and he would have scored but he chose to step out instead. BTW, he had Jennings wide open in the end zone on that play and evidently didn't see him.

KOC can't fix Murray!

MaroonBells wrote:

Check out the chart below. I was shocked when I saw this. There’s obviously a disconnect between Murray’s playing style and what KOC wants to do. Difficulty in reconciling that wasn't hard to predict. But what I personally find baffling is the inaccuracy. He’s frequently late, indecisive and off the mark. But why? It doesn’t make a lot of sense. Historically, Murray has been one of the most accurate passers in NFL history. And he didn't just suddenly become 5-10. Before 2026, Murray’s completion percentage ranked 5th of all time, and that included legit deep passing numbers. Unfortunately, in Minnesota it’s a different story. The “illusion of complexity” is more evident in Murray’s body language than it is in our opponents. The NFL average for EPA per drop back is roughly .035. How does it make any sense that a QB goes from a team with no supporting cast to a team with a very good one and gets….worse? Unless he’s just not comfortable in the offense yet. I think that’s obvious enough.

I think you’re leaning too hard on career completion percentage. Yes, Murray ranks 5th all-time, but that number doesn’t tell you much about ball placement or difficult throws. He’s also never been a high-aDOT guy, and his average target depth has sat in the low 7s for most of his career, so a lot of that percentage comes from short, easy completions.

The “legit deep passing” part is real, but it’s from 2019 to 2021. His deep-ball grade was 99 in 2021, which was the best in the league. Then it fell off a cliff. From 2022 to 2025 he was around 40th of 46 qualifying QBs in deep completion rate (about 30%) and near the bottom in EPA per attempt on those throws. So he’s been an inconsistent passer for years, and Minnesota didn’t invent it.

I agree the fit with KOC isn’t great as I've said for months. But the “he’s just not comfortable yet” explanation only goes so far. He’s at a career-worst 39.1% success rate, he’s 26th of 31 QBs in dropback EPA, and his 3.2 seconds to throw is the slowest of his career. His career success rate is around 47%, and he’d never been below 43.7% before this year. The scheme can explain some of that, but throwing a ball several feet over Jefferson on a rollout is on the QB.

Maybe the system is part of it, and I’ve said I’m not a fan of KOC calling plays. But a high career completion percentage and being an accurate passer are two different things.

Also, Murray is a veteran. A guy with 7+ years in the league should be able to adjust to a new offense faster than this. People hammered McCarthy for a lot of the same things, like late reads, misses on routine throws, and inconsistency. But McCarthy missed his entire rookie year with a knee injury and was playing real NFL football for the first time, so some bumps were expected. Murray doesn’t have that excuse. If we’re giving a young QB a learning curve and he’s still taking heat, a veteran shouldn’t get a pass just because he’s got the better resume.

Paints a different picture when you won't let a QB go out there and play backyard football. You don't really need to be prepared for that, I suppose. Is it just that Kyler is playing his worse stretch or is it because he can't or won't take the time to be in a structured offense with timing plays and understanding where your WR is going to break. I will take the latter for $100 Alex.

StickierBuns wrote:

So here's where I differ: both Goff and Williams were the #1 overall picks in their respective Drafts. I mean, lol, there's a TON to work with there. I know its en vogue to crown Ben Johnson, but don't give him premium and let's see what kind of sandwich he makes. KOC has had 9 different QBs in what, 5 years?
Let Teasley draft the QB and we'll see what kind of whisperer KOC is.

Oh, I'm not questioning where a QB fell in the draft, more than I am about the vast differences in those two. Goff is not going to go off-script as much as a guy like Williams. Yes, he's been able to work with top talent at the QB position and that is a benefit for him, but we've seen many #1 overall picks fizzle because of coaching too. It's not a given, even if the talent is considered #1 overall talent vs a middle first round pick to an UDFA selection.

hogjowlsjohnny wrote:

The pure progression offense is supposed to work for QB's who can't read defenses very well. For some reason a lot of the QB's here haven't seemed to benefit from it. Ironicly the better performing QB's have been able to read defenses. That's why Wentz, with all his issues, still performs better than Murray, JJ, and Brosmer.
Murray drops back and as soon as he hits the back of his drop, his feet start to pitter patter or he starts hopping. That usually mean the play is over. Perhaps he would have some accuracy if his feet were on the ground. I think he has a fear of being hit, and rightfully so at his size. He doesn't take full advantage of his running opportunities abd doesn't want to run. When he does run he favors getting out of bounds. On his long run last week, the tight end had the defensive back blocked up and Murray could have had 15 or 20 more yards perhaps but chose to step out of bounds. On his long run ,the game before, all he had to do ws cut to the right and he would have scored but he chose to step out instead. BTW, he had Jennings wide open in the end zone on that play and evidently didn't see him.
KOC can't fix Murray!

Ive been a bit gobsmacked at how infrequently K1 has used his feet as a weapon...And I noticed the exact same thing on that run from last week, he could have had 10-15 more yards on that one.

I gotta wonder if that concussion stoked his concerns about getting hit out there.

ALL THAT SAID - I'm still hoping he can begin to stack plays. I'm hoping he's healthy and good to go for MNF.

IceRatz16 wrote:

Oh, I'm not questioning where a QB fell in the draft, more than I am about the vast differences in those two. Goff is not going to go off-script as much as a guy like Williams. Yes, he's been able to work with top talent at the QB position and that is a benefit for him, but we've seen many #1 overall picks fizzle because of coaching too. It's not a given, even if the talent is considered #1 overall talent vs a middle first round pick to an UDFA selection.

Johnson has (as expected) done a good job breaking Caleb of all the bad habits he brought from college and Yr1 in the league.

He's playing like an NFL QB now.

IceRatz16 wrote:

Oh, I'm not questioning where a QB fell in the draft, more than I am about the vast differences in those two. Goff is not going to go off-script as much as a guy like Williams. Yes, he's been able to work with top talent at the QB position and that is a benefit for him, but we've seen many #1 overall picks fizzle because of coaching too. It's not a given, even if the talent is considered #1 overall talent vs a middle first round pick to an UDFA selection.

Goff had already been to a Superbowl before Ben Johnson, he was a known quantity. McVay just thought he'd never take the next step to elite and shipped him to Detroit. He's a great QB, underrated. And Caleb Williams is a premier talent and one the most athletic QBs ever. The players make the coaches, IMO. Always have.

Nguyen: Kyler 'constantly late on reads'https://t.co/LAbAYy2hLZ

— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) November 3, 2026

So, could Johnson fix the Angry Elf? I doubt it, Kyler’s cooked. Arizona’s former GM stated that Kyler shunned running as part of their offense, appears he was right. As Chili used to say: “you’ve got to be able to make the routine plays, routinely!”

One possible explanation is KOC's new philosophy and emphasis of conservative football ... great defense, run the ball and do not turn the ball over. With KOC in Kyler's ear "don't turn the ball over", repeatedly, maybe Kyler is just trying to play ultra conservative ... throw long so defenders can't intercept and make sure the WR is open with a clear passing lane before throwing it.

StickierBuns wrote:

https://x.com/rotoworld_fb/status/2117658144658579745?a=ESixNRsiZCQBWFG7ZSQ&s=46

He doesn't understand the timing plays. Big problem.