Up-coming Draft Thoughts
Vikings draft thoughts
Story by Warren Ludford • 10h • 10 min read
Vikings Draft Thoughts
The NFL Draft is still a little over a month away, but for the Minnesota Vikings a lot is riding on this draft. Vikings president and co-owner Mark Wilf made that clear in his statement following the release of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah at the end of January, and he’s right. Between the Vikings salary cap situation and some aging starters, the Vikings could use an influx of young talent on rookie contracts.
Vikings Recent Draft Woes
While the firing of Adofo-Mensah may have coalesced around quarterback decisions that turned into a fiasco in 2025, Adofo-Mensah’s drafts have also been poor. That’s not all on him- there is collaboration with scouting and coaching staff- but he makes the final decisions and it is the GM that owns the results. And how well the team and coaching staff develops draftees is at least as important as the scouting process in the final outcome. And luck is definitely a factor too, as most GMs will admit. The Vikings had some bad luck in recent drafts, mainly due to injuries to draft picks that didn’t have injury/durability concerns in college. Guys like Lewis Cine and J.J. McCarthy- both first round picks that are expected to be quality starters early on. And fourth-round pick Khyree Jackson was killed in a car accident a couple months after he was drafted.
The Vikings were the worst drafting team in the league during Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s tenure as GM. The fact that the Vikings had a particularly bad draft in 2022, the earliest year of this measure and therefore the draft expected to accumulate the most AVoe points, accentuates the Vikings poor results. The Vikings also aren’t credited for All-Pro Will Reichard, as a special teamer, either but this is ancillary to the results. The fact that two defensive players- Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth- were both high defensive picks in 2022 that provided next to no AV for the Vikings is a big reason why the average defensive pick looks worse. And J.J. McCarthy, as a quarterback picked 10th overall, would have a high AV expectation based both on position and how high he was picked. The fact that he’s earned just 4 AV points to date therefore more than offsets the 20 AV points Jordan Addison has earned his he was drafted. For comparison, quarterback Bo Nix, who was drafted two spots after McCarthy, has earned 26 AV points so far.
The only full-time starters among the Vikings’ draft picks over these four drafts have been Jordan Addison and Donovan Jackson last year. Dallas Turner seems likely to become one in the future, which along with Jackson should make these last two drafts look better in the future, but nevertheless the Vikings not done a good job under Adofo-Mensah in drafting and developing young, inexpensive talent. And that is key to long-term success as a franchise.
Free Agency Has Helped- But It’s Difficult to Build Rosters That Way
The Vikings have been able to mitigate their drafting woes in recent years with success in free agency- including college free agents. Signing Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, and Blake Cashman two years ago on reasonable deals really helped jump-start the defense. Jalen Redmond has emerged now too. And certainly signing Sam Darnold for $10 million mitigated J.J. McCarthy’s rookie year and Kyler Murray for $1.3 million may do the same this season. Other signings like Isaiah Rodgers, Jordan Mason, Eric Wilson, and Tavierre Thomas on mid/low market deals help too. And hitting on some UDFA contributors like Ivan Pace Jr. and Bo Richter help round out the roster with contributors on minimum contracts.
But it’s difficult to consistently build quality rosters leaning mostly on free agency. There is a reason that other teams are willing to part with their veterans and those don’t always lead to successful outcomes for the acquiring team. For every Greenard and Van Ginkel, for example, there are Hargraves and Allens- free agents that come in on big contracts and underperform. And a team can accommodate only so many big contracts. Most players on every team’s roster, by salary cap necessity, are playing on minimal contracts- usually rookie contracts.
Acquiring high-end talent in free agency also brings high-end contracts- and sometimes loss of draft picks in trade- for players the team doesn’t know as well as ones that have played for them for years and probably more often than not result in disappointment. Free agents are also typically older players that are likely to have shorter tenures with the acquiring team and will need to be replaced sooner than successful draft picks. And some years there just isn’t the right talent available to fill a key hole in the roster.
So, for all those reasons, draft and develop is the mantra of most general managers, supplemented with free agency as needed.
Why This is Such a Big Draft for the Vikings
Overall, the Vikings have still managed to maintain a strong roster overall. No team is top-notch at every position group, and the Vikings haven’t been either, but they’ve managed to avoid having particularly weak links for the most part- quarterback last season being an obvious exception.
But Harrison Smith, if he returns for another season, is 37. Aaron Jones will be 32. Brian O’Neill will be 31. Andrew Van Ginkel will be 31. Eric Wilson will be 32. Blake Cashman will be 30. Isaiah Rodgers, Byron Murphy Jr., and James Pierre will all be 28 or older, which is the age of decline for most cornerbacks. That’s a lot of starters that will need to be replaced in the coming years. And the interior defensive line could use a high-end starter though this is the youngest position group on the team. And then there is the question of quarterback… if Kyler Murray proves worthy of an extension that won’t come cheap.
The Vikings won’t be able to replace all these starters when the time comes with quality free agents- they won’t have the salary cap to do so even if they can find all the willing free agents they need. They need to start hitting on draft picks and develop them. Otherwise, roster decline is inevitable.
A Big Draft with a New Interim GM
The Vikings enter this year’s draft with an interim GM in Rob Brzezinski who doesn’t have a background in scouting and player evaluation. He’s mainly a numbers guy- salary cap guru and contract negotiator. But it’ll be up to him to manage the draft including draft trades- and it’ll be his first time in that role. He should be fine. He’s been in the draft war room for the past couple decades and has handled draft trade negotiations in the past.
The key part will be putting together the Vikings’ draft board, evaluating all the prospects, and collecting intel on the 31 other teams. Brzezinski is well-connected and will be able to help collect intel. The scouting and coaching staff will gather a lot too.
Ryan Grigson and Demetrius Washington, co-assistant general managers, lead the scouting operations. Both were hired by Adofo-Mensah. Grigson has four years of experience as general manager for the Colts, which may also prove helpful in putting together the draft board. Grigson is more of a traditional football guy, having played in the NFL and CFL (he was a 6th round draft pick) and later moved up the scouting ranks over many years. Washington has more of an analytics background, having worked in the R&D department for the 49ers most of his career, overlapping there with Adofo-Mensah.
A More Influential Brian Flores
But I suspect the Vikings’ coaching staff will have even more weight in player evaluations than usual this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brian Flores is one of the most influential voices in that regard. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Vikings draft a majority of defensive players this year, given where the holes in the roster lie, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Flores is more heavily involved in player evaluations and is given the last word. Flores is a former scout with the Patriots and has said that scouting is one of the things he likes doing the most. Of course Kevin O’Connell will weigh in as well, but I suspect he will defer to Flores when it comes to defensive players.
Flores clashed with assistant head coach Mike Pettine last year, who was subsequently moved to the offensive side and has since retired. Flores also is rumored to have expressed some dissatisfaction with the direction of the front office (presumably meaning Adofo-Mensah) in January before he was extended, which may have been influential in the timing of Adofo-Mensah’s dismissal later that month.
In any case, Flores’ influence appears to have grown within the Vikings front office. By all accounts Flores and O’Connell have a good relationship and O’Connell has a high degree of trust in Flores to run the defense. All that suggests Flores has solidified his control over the defense and personnel decisions on that side of the ball.
It’s interesting therefore that the two early releases this offseason were Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen- the two big defensive additions last season in free agency. Were those both Adofo-Mensah-led signings? Hargrave was reportedly in Flores’ doghouse at one point during the season and had his snap count reduced for a game. Hargrave also complained that Flores’ scheme wasn’t good for defensive tackle sack numbers after his release was announced. Allen didn’t criticize Flores’ scheme but he did seem a lot more enthusiastic about a Bengals’ scheme that provides an opportunity “to showcase my talent.” While there certainly were salary cap reasons to cut Hargrave and to a lesser extent Allen, the two older players may not have been as good a fit as originally thought.
The Upcoming Draft
The Vikings have four picks in the first hundred- a first-round, second-round, and two third-round picks. They don’t have a fourth-round pick, but they do have a fifth, sixth, and three seventh-round picks. The Vikings have been meeting with prospects the last couple months in the lead up to the draft. Sometimes these meetings reflect genuine interest in a player they are likely or want to draft, sometimes its due diligence that causes them to move away from that prospect, and sometimes they are smokescreens used to obfuscate their drafting intentions/priorities to the rest of the league. So take these with these prospect meetings, arranged by which of the Vikings draft pick slots they might be drafted, according to PFF’s Big Board. That’s not always accurate of course, but one of the few Big Boards that go past the top 100 prospects.
First-Round Pick #18
Nobody so far.
Second-Round Pick #49
CB Chris Johnson, San Diego State. Met at his pro day and also ran position drills at the event.
G Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon. Met at pro day.
Third-Round Picks #82 and #97
DT Gracen Halton, Oklahoma. Pro day meeting.
WR Ted Hurst, Georgia State. Pro day meeting with Keenan McCardell.
WR Skylar Bell, Connecticut. Met at Combine.
LB Anthony Hill Jr., Texas. Top 30 visit.
Fifth-Round Pick #163
DI Zxavian Harris, Ole Miss. Met at pro day.
OT Markel Bell, Miami. Formal Combine interview.
DB Jalon Kilgore, South Carolina. Met at pro day.
RB Kaytron Allen, Penn State. Formal Combine interview.
OT Austin Barber, Florida. Formal Combine interview.
RB Emmett Johson, Nebraska. Formal Combine interview.
Sixth-Round Pick #196
RB Demond Claiborne, Wake Forest, Top 30 visit.
Seventh-Round Picks #234, #235, #244 or Undrafted Free Agent
TE/FB Lance Mason, Wisconsin. Top 30 visit.
OT Tristan Leigh, Clemson. Top 30 visit and private workout
OT Jayden Williams, Ole Miss. Private workout.
RB Rahsul Faison, South Carolina. Pro day meeting.
OT Alex Harkey, Oregon. Private work out following pro day.
DT Cam Ball, Arkansas. Pro day meeting.
QB Haynes King, Georgia Tech. Pro day meeting.
RB Chris Mosley, North Carolina Central. Met at HBCU Legacy Bowl.
There is still lots of time for prospect meetings ahead of the draft and I suspect some of the more important Top 30 meetings will come in the first week or two or April, particularly regarding their first-round pick. Here are a few observations on the meetings so far.
Chris Johnson’s comparable is Byron Murphy. 6’0”, 193 lbs., 4.43” speed. Versatile inside-outside cornerback. Would not be surprised if the Vikings drafted a cornerback with one of their first couple picks.
Emmanuel Pregnon. Surprised the Vikings would be interested in a guard this high. But they could release Will Fries next year and save $21.5 million cap hits for three years.
Vikings meeting with a couple of WRs expected to go in the third round is interesting. Not sure if a smokescreen or a sign Tai Felton isn’t ready to be WR3 just yet. Ted Hurst is a big-bodied receiver the Vikings are rumored to be interested in.
The Day 3 tackle prospects suggest disappointment with Walter Rouse.
Running back meetings suggest no more than a Day 3 pick on a running back.
Gracen Halton fits the mold for a defensive tackle in Brian Flores’ scheme. More athletic, good at twists.
Zxavian Harris is a huge defensive tackle (6’8”, 330 lbs.) with some athletic traits too.
Anthony Hill Jr. fits the mold for a linebacker in Flores’ scheme- a three-down linebacker who can blitz. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings draft a linebacker given the ages of Cashman and Wilson.
It’s still early and I’m sure the Vikings will have at least another dozen meetings with prospects. And there may be some that haven’t been reported. I may have missed some as well. I’ll do another draft article in a couple weeks after the Vikings have had most of their prospect meetings. Current odds favor the Vikings drafting either a defensive lineman/edge rusher or a safety with their first draft pick. We’ll see.
Stay tuned.
medaille wrote:
I think there’s a huge amount of value to be gained for our offense for DL that can both pressure the QB and hold up in the run. If they can only do one or the other well, the guys who can pressure the QB are going to get most of the snaps. I think there’s room for one guy on the roster that is pure beef that you bring in for games when teams are spamming the run on your light guys.One of the weirdities of this past season and offseason, is that our defense was better with Hargrave and Allen, than it was previously. In the past two years, we’ve gotten rid of 3 of our 4 quality starting DL. Maybe they weren’t the best guys or the cheapest guys, but we’re definitely going into the draft with two holes at DL and two holes at S. In the past we’d have tried to fill all the holes in free agency so that at least we’d have some floor of competency going into the draft, so this feels out of sorts to me to have glaring openings.
I kind of think we’re going to have to get two day one starters on defense from the draft or we’ll be regressing.
Sidenote: I think our defense was a little over-rated last year statistically and will regress to the mean on its own. Us having had a bottom 5 offense with little to threaten defenses with slowed the pace of games quite a bit. I kind of expect our defense to get worse in terms of yardage but better in terms of turnovers as teams have to push a little bit harder to keep up with our offense.
Valid thoughts everywhere. I also see d regression. Who is going to play average IDL for us? Not sure other than Redmond.
One also cannot discount the Harry factor. He’s wall of fame if not HOF, a massive massive hole to fill. I am a little consoled by Metellus getting healthy again, but he’s no Hitman.
Finally, anyone remember the Atlanta game? They slaughtered us when we knew they were going to run it down our throats.
medaille wrote:
I think there’s a huge amount of value to be gained for our offense for DL that can both pressure the QB and hold up in the run. If they can only do one or the other well, the guys who can pressure the QB are going to get most of the snaps. I think there’s room for one guy on the roster that is pure beef that you bring in for games when teams are spamming the run on your light guys.One of the weirdities of this past season and offseason, is that our defense was better with Hargrave and Allen, than it was previously. In the past two years, we’ve gotten rid of 3 of our 4 quality starting DL. Maybe they weren’t the best guys or the cheapest guys, but we’re definitely going into the draft with two holes at DL and two holes at S. In the past we’d have tried to fill all the holes in free agency so that at least we’d have some floor of competency going into the draft, so this feels out of sorts to me to have glaring openings.
I kind of think we’re going to have to get two day one starters on defense from the draft or we’ll be regressing.
Sidenote: I think our defense was a little over-rated last year statistically and will regress to the mean on its own. Us having had a bottom 5 offense with little to threaten defenses with slowed the pace of games quite a bit. I kind of expect our defense to get worse in terms of yardage but better in terms of turnovers as teams have to push a little bit harder to keep up with our offense.
Floor of competency is a good way to put that, because I was thinking of Rob B's word, "baseline," when I read it. It seems to me that Flores is OK with baseline corners if his safeties are versatile. Maybe he's OK with baseline IDLs as long as he generates enough heat from the rest of the defense. I think this may have been what Hargrave was referring to when commenting on Flores defense.
We are going to need an ILB and RB too....
Just saying :)
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
MaroonBells wrote:
Floor of competency is a good way to put that, because I was thinking of Rob B's word, "baseline," when I read it. It seems to me that Flores is OK with baseline corners if his safeties are versatile. Maybe he's OK with baseline IDLs as long as he generates enough heat from the rest of the defense. I think this may have been what Hargrave was referring to when commenting on Flores defense.
Yeah, I think Flo's defense made up for the lack of stellar play from inside. I think Redmond covered up some of those blemishes. Our D didn't have a ton of takeaways last year except for 2 games. So if we have better consistency and less injuries to key players (Greenard, Van Ginkel, Harry) the defense could be even better.
purplefaithful wrote:
We are going to need an ILB and RB too....Just saying :)
Yep, but with the resigning of Wilson, I'd say ILB went from a round 1-2 need to maybe a round 3-5 need. RB did the same a bit when we resigned Jones. But unlike ILB, where Cashman and Wilson will likely be the starters, I think RB is a position where the back we draft could be our RB1 at any point during the season...even if Jones stays healthy. I think RB is still a round 1-3 need.
We also have a lot of draft picks for the first time in forever. I've done a couple mocks where I trade down slightly in the 1st to add a 3rd and a 5th, giving us 11 picks. There's an opportunity to add a big injection of youth to our roster if we do it right.
I have given up trying to do my own draft prognostication, doing mock drafts myself and paying close attention to all the so-called "professionals" doing mock draft, version 1-19 et al, ad nauseum.
I am mildly curious of course. For what it represents each year, a replenishing of roster talent from the NFL minor leagues (college football), and the hope it renews each off season.
Years ago, I spent a ton of time analyzing all the available talent and building my own mock drafts (with some of you, no doubt). Only to find that the reward, while nice (a signed Vikings football from Tom, our own erstwhile reporter who gained press credentials to go to TC and games), didn't really justify the time involved, and the end result did not resemble anything in reality. So I'll follow mildly, realizing that while the first round retains some predictability, after that, it's a crap shoot at worst, and merely entertainment for us all, at best.
MaroonBells wrote:
Yep, but with the resigning of Wilson, I'd say ILB went from a round 1-2 need to maybe a round 3-5 need. RB did the same a bit when we resigned Jones. But unlike ILB, where Cashman and Wilson will likely be the starters, I think RB is a position where the back we draft could be our RB1 at any point during the season...even if Jones stays healthy. I think RB is still a round 1-3 need.
We also have a lot of draft picks for the first time in forever. I've done a couple mocks where I trade down slightly in the 1st to add a 3rd and a 5th, giving us 11 picks. There's an opportunity to add a big injection of youth to our roster if we do it right.
Yup, I could live with that...Bldg on what your proposing and thinking of immediate need not depth:
DL: Rd 1-2
S: Rd 1-2
RB: Rd 2-3 (couldn't put 1 unless they move up for Love)
ILB: Rd 2-5 ( I bumped this a bit cause Cashman cant stay on the field)
WR: Rd 2-5
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
MaroonBells wrote:
Yep, but with the resigning of Wilson, I'd say ILB went from a round 1-2 need to maybe a round 3-5 need. RB did the same a bit when we resigned Jones. But unlike ILB, where Cashman and Wilson will likely be the starters, I think RB is a position where the back we draft could be our RB1 at any point during the season...even if Jones stays healthy. I think RB is still a round 1-3 need.
We also have a lot of draft picks for the first time in forever. I've done a couple mocks where I trade down slightly in the 1st to add a 3rd and a 5th, giving us 11 picks. There's an opportunity to add a big injection of youth to our roster if we do it right.
Agreed. Wilson is 31 years old. His role is to rush the QB. He's a downright liability against the pass. Cashman will be 30 by the time the season kicks off. The problem is that he's frequently injured & you can't depend on him to play 17 games. There's no other off ball LBs on the roster who can adequately replace him when he's out.
Jake Rodriquez, Texas Tech
Jake Golday, Cincinnati
Anthony Hill, Texas
Would love to add one of the above to the team. Rodriquez is getting some love as a back of the first round prospect. He'll be drafted in the top of the 2nd round at the latest. Maybe Golday or Hill falls to the 3rd round
Knucklehead wrote:
Agreed. Wilson is 31 years old. His role is to rush the QB. He's a downright liability against the pass. Cashman will be 30 by the time the season kicks off. The problem is that he's frequently injured & you can't depend on him to play 17 games. There's no other off ball LBs on the roster who can adequately replace him when he's out.Jake Rodriquez, Texas Tech
Jake Golday, Cincinnati
Anthony Hill, TexasWould love to add one of the above to the team. Rodriquez is getting some love as a back of the first round prospect. He'll be drafted in the top of the 2nd round at the latest. Maybe Golday or Hill falls to the 3rd round
Rodriguez is one of my favorite players in the draft. I put ILB as a 3-5 round need, but if he's there in the 2nd (as you say, he may not even drop that far), I'd have a hard time passing on him.
greediron wrote:
Yeah, I think Flo's defense made up for the lack of stellar play from inside. I think Redmond covered up some of those blemishes. Our D didn't have a ton of takeaways last year except for 2 games. So if we have better consistency and less injuries to key players (Greenard, Van Ginkel, Harry) the defense could be even better.
I'm skeptical that we'll be better on defense, unless we add talent. Two of those three key players look like they won't be on the team.
I'm definitely on team Flores will figure things out, but the roster as it stands is down 3 starting caliber guys that made pro bowls, and replaced them with no one yet. That's notable for sure.
medaille wrote:
I'm skeptical that we'll be better on defense, unless we add talent. Two of those three key players look like they won't be on the team.
I'm definitely on team Flores will figure things out, but the roster as it stands is down 3 starting caliber guys that made pro bowls, and replaced them with no one yet. That's notable for sure.
If only there were a way to add some players before September. :cool:
I agree with the point you're making. But let's say Harrison Smith decides to come back. Jay Ward emerged last year as a pretty good player, starting the last several games and putting up terrific PFF grades. Metellus should be healthy again too. So let's take safety off the list for the hell of it. We'll draft a corner somewhere, but with Pierre, Murphy and Rodgers, it's not a bad corner group for a Flores defense. We'll draft a RB, but I'd be fine with a 3rd rounder.
Does that free us up to take two DLs back to back? Maybe. Just an idea, but maybe trade down a little and draft one of the NTs (Hunter, Woods, Banks, or McDonald), then turn right around and draft Gracen Halton, the best DT pass rusher in the draft, in the 2nd round. And we still have two 3rds for RB and Center.
I'd sure like the looks of our defense with a Redmond, Hunter, Halton front three with the hyphens back as competition or depth.
medaille wrote:
I'm skeptical that we'll be better on defense, unless we add talent. Two of those three key players look like they won't be on the team.
I'm definitely on team Flores will figure things out, but the roster as it stands is down 3 starting caliber guys that made pro bowls, and replaced them with no one yet. That's notable for sure.
Agreed, We need some beef at DT for sure, some youth at LB would be good. Hopefully the draft is productive. I am also hopefully Harry comes back. He deserves a better last season IMO, although the sendoff in the Detroit game was pretty epic.
greediron wrote:
Agreed, We need some beef at DT for sure, some youth at LB would be good. Hopefully the draft is productive. I am also hopefully Harry comes back. He deserves a better last season IMO, although the sendoff in the Detroit game was pretty epic.
How the hell did we win that white-out game vs Detroit?!
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
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