On the path to?
Five quarterbacks — Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Patrick Mahomes, Terry Bradshaw and Troy Aikman — have won three or more Super Bowls.
Two of them played, in their first year as a starter, worse than J.J. McCarthy has played this season for the Vikings.
I watched one of those seasons up close.
In 1989, I was covering the Cowboys for the Dallas Morning News. Troy Aikman, now a Hall of Famer, was the first selection in the 1989 NFL draft and began the season as a starter.
He did not win a game as a rookie. The Cowboys’ only victory that season came when St. Paul native Steve Walsh defeated Washington while Aikman nursed one of his many injuries that season.
Bradshaw stunk in his first season as a starter, too, completing just 38.1% of his passes, throwing for six touchdowns with 24 interceptions.
This season, McCarthy has completed 56% of his passes, with nine TD throws and 10 interceptions, for a passer rating of 67.4.
You will be shocked at how well that compares to the first seasons of a number of great quarterbacks:
Peyton Manning: 56.7 completion percentage, 26 touchdowns, 28 interceptions, passer rating of 71.2.
Eli Manning: 48.2, 6-9, 55.4
Bradshaw: 38.1, 6-24, 30.4.
Aikman: 52.9, 9-18, 55.7.
John Elway: 47.5, 7-14, 54.9.
Josh Allen: 52.8, 10-12, 67.9.
An important caveat: Thousands of quarterbacks have started their careers poorly and then had poor careers.
McCarthy’s flair for the dramatic, combined with his first efficient performance as a pro Sunday in the Vikings’ 31-0 victory over Washington, gives us permission to envision McCarthy developing into something special.
Like Aikman.
Aikman is one of the toughest athletes I’ve ever watched up close. That toughness would make him an exceptional player and leader. As a rookie, it threatened to end his career.
Playing behind a developing offensive line, without a running game, for a coach (Jimmy Johnson) who wanted to throw the ball a lot, with No. 1 receiver Michael Irvin missing much of the season because of injuries, Aikman repeatedly held the ball in the pocket until the last possible second, trying to give his receivers as much time as possible to get open.
He paid a physical price, often getting smashed in the chin or chest as he released the ball. He played in just 11 games in 1989. The Cowboys would score a total of 20 points in their last three games.
Late in the season, I sat in the office of defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt, who seemed shockingly optimistic. What I remember him saying went something like this: “Jimmy is starting to realize how important it is to run the ball in this league, even if you’re not getting much yardage, just to relieve pressure on the quarterback and wear down the defense. If we can give Troy a good running back and get Irvin back, and we find a couple of pass rushers, look out.”
The Cowboys drafted Emmitt Smith the next year. He would become the NFL’s all-time rushing leader. Irvin became a Hall of Famer. Wannstedt built a powerhouse defense, in part thanks to the Herschel Walker trade, and Aikman was the ideal leader for that team — a leader who had taken lumps and had his worthiness questioned as a rookie.
McCarthy is in a much better situation today than Aikman was in 1989. He has a phenomenal and healthy No. 1 receiver, in Justin Jefferson.
He has plenty of receiving options, two good running backs and an offensive line that is effective when healthy.
The grand plan of having him develop into a winner has been deferred but not yet destroyed.
Yes, McCarthy has played terribly at times this season. That puts him in pretty good company.
STRIB
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Good post and great comparisons. I agree and have said as much on some of these boards. McCarthy has things to work on, but what he needs most is to learn the speed of the NFL and develop a cadence with his teammates and with himself. He will gain confidence as he matures and continues to develop.
But his HC needs to keep a balanced attack to help relieve some pressure and build that confidence for McCarthy. He's a gun slinger like Favre was and Favre threw a ton of freaking picks and his teammates complained about their hands hurting when trying to catch passes. McCarthy has a great offense behind him, but they also need to pull their weight and step up too.
McCarthy is also not used to losing, so he's finding himself in uncharted territory more often than not so far in the NFL. I expect that to continue this season, but for him to gain the valuable experience he needs to continue improving and developing in the QB we were all hoping for.
I think it serves as a good reminder that playing QB in the NFL is really hard, and that even the greats weren't always great early on. But I don't buy much of these comparisons to QBs who played in a different era. Earlier in the season, there were comparisons to Manning's and Elway's slow starts. Later on, there were comparisons to the level of ineptitude we saw with a half dozen slugs like Josh Rosen.
Here's one I will take: If JJ McCarthy finishes healthy and strong, he will finish with similar numbers to Drake Maye's rookie season.
MaroonBells wrote:
I think it serves as a good reminder that playing QB in the NFL is really hard, and that even the greats weren't always great early on. But I don't buy much of these comparisons to QBs who played in a different era. Earlier in the season, there were comparisons to Manning's and Elway's slow starts. Later on, there were comparisons to the level of ineptitude we saw with a half dozen slugs like Josh Rosen.Here's one I will take: If JJ McCarthy finishes healthy and strong, he will finish with similar numbers to Drake Maye's rookie season.
JJ needs to figure out how to be JJM, no matter how many mental reps he gets, or practices, or even games will make him be any of those other guys, he will be a sum of his abilities combined with his experiences and nobody from the past or the future will have the same combination. Just have to wait and see what his path leads to. Bringing in a middling vet does very little IMO that a qb coach can't do.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
JimmyinSD wrote:
JJ needs to figure out how to be JJM, no matter how many mental reps he gets, or practices, or even games will make him be any of those other guys, he will be a sum of his abilities combined with his experiences and nobody from the past or the future will have the same combination. Just have to wait and see what his path leads to. Bringing in a middling vet does very little IMO that a qb coach can't do.
It’s felt like such a wasted season. I hope we’re not just going back to the well on the Minshews of the world.
Play the kid. If he sucks badly next year we’ll be in the position to draft highly in ‘27.
Ownership has to ok it though. You can’t ask KOC to fall on the sword for a season for a QB to develop. Even Caleb Williams looks much better with playing time.
That said, fire KAM. His drafts have been awful.
I think JJM will grow into being a competent starter or better. I think he's got the right mindset to grow and develop. I don't think he's got any traits that aren't overcome-able. It's not like he's too dumb to figure it out or too lazy or something like that. He's not too short or weak armed. I think he'll get his mechanics figured out. I think he'll learn to read defenses. I think, he'll be fine.
I think the only real big issue that will carry forward, has been injuries. I'm not sure I'm ready to label him injury prone, but 3 injuries in a relatively handful of games is worrisome.
medaille wrote:
I think JJM will grow into being a competent starter or better. I think he's got the right mindset to grow and develop. I don't think he's got any traits that aren't overcome-able. It's not like he's too dumb to figure it out or too lazy or something like that. He's not too short or weak armed. I think he'll get his mechanics figured out. I think he'll learn to read defenses. I think, he'll be fine.I think the only real big issue that will carry forward, has been injuries. I'm not sure I'm ready to label him injury prone, but 3 injuries in a relatively handful of games is worrisome.
This reflects much of where my head is at too...
I THINK he's going to be "fine" but where's his ceiling? I really dont have a clue. I wish I had more examples on the field where I am feeling bullish about next year.
Not there yet.
They have to bring a vet in 26 to compete. Just because the biggest knock on JJM is staying on the field. Maybe he'll temper that concern some and play each remaining game this season.
I dont know how the remainder of the season will impact their decision making on the QB room next year. I suspect a lot.
He's got one more "easier game" vs Gmen, a tough one vs Dallas and then 2 even tougher division games. Thats a lot of data to sift through for them - if he stays healthy.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
medaille wrote:
I think JJM will grow into being a competent starter or better. I think he's got the right mindset to grow and develop. I don't think he's got any traits that aren't overcome-able. It's not like he's too dumb to figure it out or too lazy or something like that. He's not too short or weak armed. I think he'll get his mechanics figured out. I think he'll learn to read defenses. I think, he'll be fine.I think the only real big issue that will carry forward, has been injuries. I'm not sure I'm ready to label him injury prone, but 3 injuries in a relatively handful of games is worrisome.
This is where I'm at. I know we've watched a lot of bad offense this year but I'm still surprised at how many in the fanbase basically wrote him off so quickly.
Plan A should still be McCarthy starting every game for us next season. I think he's capable enough of holding the job down for a season, provided the expectations aren't Super Bowl or bust in 2026. If that's what the owners and fans are looking for then yes the Vikes will probably have to trade a haul of picks for someone. But I'd be thrilled to watch a full season of progression from JJM next year and if he can do Nix/Williams/Maye-like things in year 2 of playing, I'll have fun watching the games. Even if maybe we aren't a Super Bowl contender yet again.
purplefaithful wrote:
This reflects much of where my head is at too...
I THINK he's going to be "fine" but where's his ceiling? I really dont have a clue. I wish I had more examples on the field where I am feeling bullish about next year.
Not there yet.
They have to bring a vet in 26 to compete. Just because the biggest knock on JJM is staying on the field. Maybe he'll temper that concern some and play each remaining game this season.
I dont know how the remainder of the season will impact their decision making on the QB room next year. I suspect a lot.
He's got one more "easier game" vs Gmen, a tough one vs Dallas and then 2 even tougher division games. Thats a lot of data to sift through for them - if he stays healthy.
If we're just talking about JJ, then I wouldn't put the Cowboys down as tough. Only two teams have a worse pass defense than the Commies. One of them in the Cowboys. Now, they do have the best offense in the NFL in terms of YPG (and no one is even close), but then we're talking about the Vikings defense, which isn't typically our problem.
MaroonBells wrote:
If we're just talking about JJ, then I wouldn't put the Cowboys down as tough. Only two teams have a worse pass defense than the Commies. One of them in the Cowboys. Now, they do have the best offense in the NFL in terms of YPG (and no one is even close), but then we're talking about the Vikings defense, which isn't typically our problem.
The Cowboys have a lot to play for still and its a national night game...Plus as you say they can light it up offensively.
I think JJM will have to carry more of the load this week is all. Not sure we'll be able to run the ball +50% again.
We'll see, at least they still have my interest.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
purplefaithful wrote:
This reflects much of where my head is at too...
I THINK he's going to be "fine" but where's his ceiling? I really dont have a clue. I wish I had more examples on the field where I am feeling bullish about next year.
Not there yet.
They have to bring a vet in 26 to compete. Just because the biggest knock on JJM is staying on the field. Maybe he'll temper that concern some and play each remaining game this season.
I dont know how the remainder of the season will impact their decision making on the QB room next year. I suspect a lot.
He's got one more "easier game" vs Gmen, a tough one vs Dallas and then 2 even tougher division games. Thats a lot of data to sift through for them - if he stays healthy.
You have Brosmer that needs more opportunities as well if soemthing were to happen to JJM, again...a middling veteran does nothing a coach can't do besides muddy the water even more when JJ does struggle along the way. This is the path, stay on it.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
MaroonBells wrote:
If we're just talking about JJ, then I wouldn't put the Cowboys down as tough. Only two teams have a worse pass defense than the Commies. One of them in the Cowboys. Now, they do have the best offense in the NFL in terms of YPG (and no one is even close), but then we're talking about the Vikings defense, which isn't typically our problem.
Yeah, I'm less concerned about winning than I am about JJM continuing to grow. If our defense struggles against a good offense, it doesn't really change how I feel about the game too much. If JJM struggles hard against the Cowboys defense, well that would be concerning for me. I don't really need to see JJM outcompete Dak, just stack quality play in the games that are left. If we get the win, that's a bonus that makes us all feel good.
JimmyinSD wrote:
You have Brosmer that needs more opportunities as well if soemthing were to happen to JJM, again...a middling veteran does nothing a coach can't do besides muddy the water even more when JJ does struggle along the way. This is the path, stay on it.
Your suggesting they go into 2026 with JJM/Brosmer and who?
IMO they need a vet who can grab the reigns if need be. You cant have a repeat of this year at QB with Wentz as the backup.
To steal from MB, the only question is will that vet be back0up material or someone who will vie for a starter role next Fall?
How much cap $$ will they throw at that QB room? Brosmer is greener than a Mamba and just a practice body imo.
But all of that is a long ways off and we're still staring down 4 games to go.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
purplefaithful wrote:
The Cowboys have a lot to play for still and its a national night game...Plus as you say they can light it up offensively.
I think JJM will have to carry more of the load this week is all. Not sure we'll be able to run the ball +50% again.
We'll see, at least they still have my interest.
Dallas is going to show up for sure. They are playing well recently and lost on the road in Detroit on TNF. Not many teams are winning that game.
I don't feel great about our chance at winning this game, but really I just hope McCarthy and the offense can look competent and have some success again.
purplefaithful wrote:
Your suggesting they go into 2026 with JJM/Brosmer and who?
IMO they need a vet who can grab the reigns if need be. You cant have a repeat of this year at QB with Wentz as the backup.
To steal from MB, the only question is will that vet be back0up material or someone who will vie for a starter role next Fall?
How much cap $$ will they throw at that QB room? Brosmer is greener than a Mamba and just a practice body imo.
But all of that is a long ways off and we're still staring down 4 games to go.
What is the upside of a vet to compete with JJM? Zero IMO, so then what is the upside to a vet that isnt even at the level of a 2nd year player? If Brosmer isn't in your future plans then send him packing. If he is then he needs all the reps and exposure he can get. I would rather they bring in a 3rd young guy than another clip board holder that offers nothing. If we want someone to push JJM, make it a young guy that may become something valuable to the team, no more washed up veterans.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
JimmyinSD wrote:
What is the upside of a vet to compete with JJM? Zero IMO, so then what is the upside to a vet that isnt even at the level of a 2nd year player? If Brosmer isn't in your future plans then send him packing. If he is then he needs all the reps and exposure he can get. I would rather they bring in a 3rd young guy than another clip board holder that offers nothing. If we want someone to push JJM, make it a young guy that may become something valuable to the team, no more washed up veterans.
If you were the Colts right now. Who do you think they would rather have on staff right now. Brosmer or Garoppolo, Mariota, Brissett, Wentz, Minshew, or even Cousins. Guessing the answer is easy.
Point is, Brosmer most likely end up even close to any of these and he an UDFA. Why a veteran is so important in the backup role.
Canthony wrote:
If you were the Colts right now. Who do you think they would rather have on staff right now. Brosmer or Garoppolo, Mariota, Brissett, Wentz, Minshew, or even Cousins. Guessing the answer is easy.
Point is, Brosmer most likely end up even close to any of these and he an UDFA. Why a veteran is so important in the backup role.
The Colts aren't trying to develop a qb of the future so your scenario is pointless. They had essentially given up on Richardson whereas the Vikings are no where near that with JJM. If you bring in a veteran that is capable of winning, then you are saying you dont trust the kid as you know the fans will turn on the kid first sign of trouble. Either they want to find their future or they want to try and compete with their present. Weve been through this countless times, I want to see them stay the course and find a young guy and then load for bear with him and his rookie contract. A competent back up is going to cost 15 to 20 million easy, I would rather spend that on people not holding clip boards on game day. If JJM fails or otherwise suggests a new plan is needed, then I worry about that after next year.
And Brosmers ceiling is likely just as high as retread QBs...neither are likely to win it all. I think anybody that thinks they know his potential are over valuing their own opinions.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
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