He's right imo - and Vegas is unusually wrong
The Vegas consensus is that the Vikings will win 8.5 games in 2025. I think they’ll get the .5 for beating 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers in a large pub in Dublin, but that’s just a guess.
Many Vegas sites that set the Vikings’ win total at 8.5 also predict they will fail to reach it.
The consensus of well-known NFL analysts seems to be that the Vikings are in some sort of rebuild mode because they will start J.J. McCarthy at quarterback after allowing Sam Darnold to leave.
All of which leaves the 2025 Vikings in an ideal position, emotionally.
They won 14 games last year with a refurbished quarterback. They’ve won 13 and 14 games in the two seasons in which the starting quarterback has remained healthy under head coach Kevin O’Connell.
In 2023, when everything went wrong, including quarterback Kirk Cousins and star receiver Justin Jefferson getting hurt, they still won seven games.
I believe the 2025 Vikings are better than the 2024 Vikings, that the division is weaker than it was a year ago because of the Lions’ personnel and coaching losses and that the lack of pressure being applied from outside the building puts this team in an ideal place:
They’re underrated, overlooked and improved.
I would expect the Vikings to address their cornerback and tight end depth issues as the season opener approaches. They signed Stephon Gilmore in late August last year, and that, or something similar, could happen this season.
There are three reasons so many national line-setters and analysts are downgrading the Vikings’ chances this season:
Yes, the division is tough, but the Bears have much to prove before they can be taken seriously. The Packers are good, but Jordan Love appeared to regress at least slightly last year. The Lions lost three of their best brains — offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and center Frank Ragnow.
Yes, the schedule looks difficult, but playing two road games against beatable teams at neutral sites constitutes an advantage.
Yes, McCarthy is an unknown, but I believe he will be a better and more reliable quarterback at the end of this season than Darnold was last year.
The Vikings’ supposed interest in Rodgers fooled many into thinking they weren’t high on McCarthy.
Here are the facts underlying the speculation: The Vikings never brought Rodgers in for an interview or made him an offer. The Steelers, who did both, were always going to sign him.
My prediction for the 2025 Vikings: McCarthy will play well, the defense will thrive in a third season under Brian Flores, and the Vikings will win a playoff game.
Startribune
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
The Vegas win total defies logic. It's obviously about JJ McCarthy. And that's fine. He's proven nothing. Has yet to take his first NFL snap. I get the "show me first" attitude that some people have. But it doesn't take much insight to see what other QBs have done in this offense. I think unless McCarthy is a bust on the level of, say, Josh Freeman, the Vikings are going to win most of their games.
Is it that unusual for Vegas to wrong? What was their win total prediction for us last year? 7.5 I think. You might argue that it was impossible to predict Darnold would play well. But was it really?
I keep thinking of Alex Smith, who set career passing records in 2016 and then again in 2017 (with a league leading passer rating), only to be traded to the Redskins in January of 2018. Andy Reid had a belief in Patrick Mahomes. Reid was obviously right. I'm hoping KOC's insight and judgement are right about JJM.
MaroonBells wrote:
The Vegas win total defies logic. It's obviously about JJ McCarthy. And that's fine. He's proven nothing. Has yet to take his first NFL snap. I get the "show me first" attitude that some people have. But it doesn't take much insight to see what other QBs have done in this offense. I think unless McCarthy is a bust on the level of, say, Josh Freeman, the Vikings are going to win most of their games.Is it that unusual for Vegas to wrong? What was their win total prediction for us last year? 7.5 I think. You might argue that it was impossible to predict Darnold would play well. But was it really?
Last year, Vegas had us at 6.5 wins initially, later updated to 7.5. Retread QB bust as a placeholder. Coming off a 7 win season cobbled together with bubble gum and baling twine at QB. The Passtronaut was exciting to watch in that half-baked season until he wasn't.
I could care less about the Vegas odds...I care about what I see on the field.
Where does one bet against these odds? I’ve never made a sports bet.
I think they’re a 10-12 win team.
This line has either moved to 9/9.5 or been juiced to -155 or higher, effectively making it 9.5. In other words, money has come in on the over. The uncertainty of how to eval JJM is the main reason it is still a significant drop from last season, along with a harder schedule.
Money on season win totals tells you what pro bettors think and they are generally better predictors of outcomes than pundits, fans, etc.
comet52 wrote:
This line has either moved to 9/9.5 or been juiced to -155 or higher, effectively making it 9.5. In other words, money has come in on the over. The uncertainty of how to eval JJM is the main reason it is still a significant drop from last season, along with a harder schedule.Money on season win totals tells you what pro bettors think and they are generally better predictors of outcomes than pundits, fans, etc.
9.0-9.5 is probably about right with the questions at QB...Personally? I think they'll better that.
But yah, clearly shows where the $$ has been placed.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
comet52 wrote:
This line has either moved to 9/9.5 or been juiced to -155 or higher, effectively making it 9.5. In other words, money has come in on the over. The uncertainty of how to eval JJM is the main reason it is still a significant drop from last season, along with a harder schedule.Money on season win totals tells you what pro bettors think and they are generally better predictors of outcomes than pundits, fans, etc.
In the aggregate, of course they are. But then a drunken monkey is a better predictor of outcomes than most fans. I just think there is a bit of ignorance baked into that. 6.5 last year for a team with all those weapons and a Flores defense? Sure, that was mostly about Darnold, but it shouldn't have been THAT hard to predict he'd play better in the best offense he'd ever been in.
Right now the 49ers are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl. Ranked 6th in the NFL, and in a tight grouping up with the Lions, Commanders and Bengals, all well ahead of the Vikings. We're talking about a team who won 6 games last year and has lost 11 of 22 starters from their Super Bowl appearance year before last. Make that make sense.
I don't know that much about betting, but wouldn't you agree that the real thing to watch is not where the money IS, but where it's GOING? I read the other day that the Vikings have had more money placed on them than any team in the NFL.
comet52 wrote:
This line has either moved to 9/9.5 or been juiced to -155 or higher, effectively making it 9.5. In other words, money has come in on the over. The uncertainty of how to eval JJM is the main reason it is still a significant drop from last season, along with a harder schedule.Money on season win totals tells you what pro bettors think and they are generally better predictors of outcomes than pundits, fans, etc.
Pretty sure vegas lines are set where they can get the most action. Seeing our win number creep up show what the pros think so the line adjusts.
greediron wrote:
Pretty sure vegas lines are set where they can get the most action. Seeing our win number creep up show what the pros think so the line adjusts.
That's what I was pointing out in my last paragraph.
MaroonBells wrote:He had 6 years of crap on tape, people are only going to risk so much on that changing. The belief that KOC can up a qb's game wasn't nearly as strong then as it is now.
6.5 last year for a team with all those weapons and a Flores defense? Sure, that was mostly about Darnold, but it shouldn't have been THAT hard to predict he'd play better in the best offense he'd ever been in.
Right now the 49ers are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl. Ranked 6th in the NFL, and in a tight grouping up with the Lions, Commanders and Bengals, all well ahead of the Vikings. We're talking about a team who won 6 games last year and has lost 11 of 22 starters from their Super Bowl appearance year before last. Make that make sense.
It's mostly about the soft schedule, history, Shanahan's rep, and assuming McCaffery comes back healthy. They are a different team in that case. But like the Vikings they've drafted poorly and they are maybe on the downside of a curve, whereas we are presumably on the upside until cap hell arrives.
Well that's why I observed that the Viking win total has moved, showing money bet that they will do better than 9 wins. It's also important to know that those lines don't move because Joe Schmoe bets them, even if he bets a lot of money. Bookies move them when known pros bet.
I don't know that much about betting, but wouldn't you agree that the real thing to watch is not where the money IS, but where it's GOING? I read the other day that the Vikings have had more money placed on them than any team in the NFL.
But no one has a crystal ball or perfect information, so we are always dealing with probabilities here, not guarantees aka it's why they call it gambling.
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