Random Thoughts Pre Draft

JustInTime wrote:
I saw the hip tightness comment. Go look at the tape and see for yourself in the pinned thread. He’s the reincarnation of Sean Taylor.

Chiefs new look pass rush gonna make house Harkonnen proud…. pic.twitter.com/9kgDJ8fEl3

— Price Carter (@priceacarter) March 29, 2025

I wish this guy was a fit for us. Was bummed he didn’t declare last year. This year he absolutely slayed in the Senior Bowl. He’s going to go to a 4-3 team and destroy OTs. Way undervalued in the draft process. Should be ranked in the 20s not 40-50. Someone is getting a total stud.

MaroonBells wrote:
I think the question about safety is do we want a replacement for Metellus who's in a contract year? A replacement for Harry, who's in his last season? Or competition for Theo Jackson, whom the team seems to like, but is largely unproven. 

Considering the above, safety is definitely a 1st round consideration, but I agree with Mr Gainz. Safety could also wait until the mid to late rounds.

It's going to be interesting to see how Flores plays the safety position. We know how important Smith is to the defense and Flores considers him to be another coach or an extension of himself on the field. Mattelus is so damn good in that Swiss army type role where he plays all over the field that I'd be hesitant to move him out of that. I suspect we'll see a lot of Theo Jackson and Mattelus continuing to be a roamer in certain sets. Jay Ward is a guy who has been in the system a couple years now and has flashed a little when he's had an opportunity. I mean maybe you could take a guy like Emmanwori and make him the new chess piece and keep Mattelus on the back end or vice versa, but if that were the case, why extend Theo Jackson if the plan was to sit him on the bench in favor of a rookie? I think you can safely say right now we have three pieces at safety that are going to play major roles and a guy the team likes in Jay Ward as a backup. I just think if you are Kwesi, sitting there without a contract extension and having just completely busted on a guy a few years ago who was supposed to be everything Emmanwori and Starks are said to be, there's no way you put your head on the chopping block by taking another safety in the first round.

Somebody look it up. What is the recent bust rate of safeties taken in the first or second round who are no longer with the teams that drafted them? It's a high bust position and one where you can literally sign highly drafted players like Javon Holland every year in free agency. I just don't see Kwesi taking that kind of gamble...again.

Draft Bust Rates

This isn’t position specific, but based on this study 50% of first rounders are getting their second contract elsewhere. 

So, a coin flip basically.

supafreak84 wrote:

It's going to be interesting to see how Flores plays the safety position. We know how important Smith is to the defense and Flores considers him to be another coach or an extension of himself on the field. Mattelus is so damn good in that Swiss army type role where he plays all over the field that I'd be hesitant to move him out of that. I suspect we'll see a lot of Theo Jackson and Mattelus continuing to be a roamer in certain sets. Jay Ward is a guy who has been in the system a couple years now and has flashed a little when he's had an opportunity. I mean maybe you could take a guy like Emmanwori and make him the new chess piece and keep Mattelus on the back end or vice versa, but if that were the case, why extend Theo Jackson if the plan was to sit him on the bench in favor of a rookie? I think you can safely say right now we have three pieces at safety that are going to play major roles and a guy the team likes in Jay Ward as a backup. I just think if you are Kwesi, sitting there without a contract extension and having just completely busted on a guy a few years ago who was supposed to be everything Emmanwori and Starks are said to be, there's no way you put your head on the chopping block by taking another safety in the first round.

Somebody look it up. What is the recent bust rate of safeties taken in the first or second round who are no longer with the teams that drafted them? It's a high bust position and one where you can literally sign highly drafted players like Javon Holland every year in free agency. I just don't see Kwesi taking that kind of gamble...again.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-historical-hit-rates-reveal-about-positional-success

Safety has one of the lowest 1st round bust rates. The reason for that is well explained here:

For premium positions — such as edge rusher or wide receiver — teams appear more willing to take risks on high-upside prospects, even if those players come with clear flaws. The potential value of hitting on a player at one of these spots often justifies the gamble....For positions like tight end, safety and interior offensive line, the trend is reversed. Teams typically select players at these spots in the first round only when there’s a clear need and the prospect is viewed as a blue-chip talent. 

I looked it up again. In the last ten years there have been numerous safeties taken in the 1st round of the draft. One! Just one received a contract extension from the team that drafted him..Derwin James. Kyle Hamilton (who we could have and should have taken) is a very safe bet to get an extension in Baltimore. Do not waste a 1st round pick on a safety. Harrison Smith is literally a unicorn and you can't like the chances of nabbing a unicorn with a front office that has yet to prove they know what they are doing drafting players and gave Ryan Grigson a seat at the table.

Off the top of my head, 2 safeties in the last ten years were traded from the team that drafted them for pretty significant draft capital: Jamal Adams and Jabril  Peppers. Both received contracts from their new teams. Both cost well more than the picks used to acquire them. 

Factoring in the previously mentioned bust rate MB unearned from PFF, mathematically speaking drafting a S this year looks like a pretty solid bet. 

I’ll take logic and math every time.

Adding Minka Fitzpatrick to the traded group.

McKinney and Holland hit FA after being 2nd round picks but hit it big in FA. 

So, while technically correct, it’s really not painting the whole picture.

JustInTime wrote:
Off the top of my head, 2 safeties in the last ten years were traded from the team that drafted them for pretty significant draft capital: Jamal Adams and Jabril  Peppers. Both received contracts from their new teams. Both cost well more than the picks used to acquire them. 

Factoring in the previously mentioned bust rate MB unearned from PFF, mathematically speaking drafting a S this year looks like a pretty solid bet. 

I’ll take logic and math every time.

Adding Minka Fitzpatrick to the traded group.

Adams and Peppers are two great examples of guys who never lived up to expectations and I commend both the Jets and the Browns for fleecing those other teams in trades for players they either didn't want to pay (smartly) or were throw ins in larger deals. Adams flamed out hard and Peppers is on his 3rd team since being drafted and apparently "snow blind" up in New England. I don't think you draft a player thinking, "well if it doesn't work out, I'll flip them for high draft compensation in a few years" and hope you get another team to bite. Cine is more the norm in the league.

I’ll add Pitre and Brisker to the likely to be extended list since we’re looking at 2nd rounders. 

S might be the safest route this year. 

If they want to trade down and take a safety somewhere, go for it. I would not roll the dice on taking one in the 1st round and I don't think Kwesi would either. His ass still has to be stinging from the Cine stinker and the optics of him taking another one would be awful (fair or not) considering what else is likely to still be on the board. I
don't see him risking his job using another high draft pick on a safety because it would be the absolute nail in the coffin for him to flame out on another one when his drafting has been getting deservedly hammered. If he already had an extension, maybe that changes his ability to roll the dice a little more, but he has to nail this draft and get far more contributors than he has in his first 3 drafts.

Adding more 2nd rounders 

Vonn Bell 
Buddha Baker 
Marcus Maye
Jessie Bates
Juan Thornhill
Grant Delpit 
A. Winfield Jr
Trevon Moehrig

Damn. Lotta star power just in the second round.

supafreak84 wrote:
If they want to trade down and take a safety somewhere, go for it. I would not roll the dice on taking one in the 1st round and I don't think Kwesi would either. His ass still has to be stinging from the Cine stinker and the optics of him taking another one would be awful (fair or not) considering what else is likely to still be on the board. I don't see him risking his job using another high draft pick on a safety because it would be the absolute nail in the coffin for him to flame out on another one when his drafting has been getting deservedly hammered. If he already had an extension, maybe that changes his ability to roll the dice a little more, but he has to nail this draft and get far more contributors than he has in his first 3 drafts.

Can you make an argument without mentioning Cine? That seems to be your only point. We get it, we whiffed miserably here and I’m sure passing on a Domer will have your ass chapped for the rest of your life. But for fucks sake if your only point is Cine was a horrific pick WE ALL FUCKING GOT IT THE FIRST 50 TIMES YOU BROUGHT IT UP. JFC. Christ on a cracker you’re a one note kazoo.

JustInTime wrote:
Adding more 2nd rounders 

Vonn Bell 
Buddha Baker 
Marcus Maye
Jessie Bates
Juan Thornhill
Grant Delpit 
A. Winfield Jr
Trevon Moehrig

Damn. Lotta star power just in the second round.

Can you make an argument without mentioning Cine? That seems to be your only point. We get it, we whiffed miserably here and I’m sure passing on a Domer will have your ass chapped for the rest of your life. But for fucks sake if your only point is Cine was a horrific pick WE ALL FUCKING GOT IT THE FIRST 50 TIMES YOU BROUGHT IT UP. JFC. Christ on a cracker you’re a one note kazoo.

Lol you must have missed the part where I said most first round safeties aren't worth where they are drafted and the flame out rate is high as evidenced by recent history. That's the point. Cine is just the picture perfect example. No need to get your panties in a bunch as typical with anybody who doesn't agree with you. Talk about a one note fucking kazoo...

supafreak84 wrote:

Lol you must have missed the part where I said most first round safeties aren't worth where they are drafted and the flame out rate is high as evidenced by recent history. That's the point. Cine is just the picture perfect example. No need to get your panties in a bunch as typical with anybody who doesn't agree with you. Talk about a one note fucking kazoo...

Again, lowest bust rate of any position but, lol, Cine Cine Cine!

Comical

Guys I typically disagree with you, Can, and JR. 

Auspicious company  :cool:

JustInTime wrote:

Again, lowest bust rate of any position but, lol, Cine Cine Cine!

Comical

Lol according to whom!? Who are these great 1st round safeties drafted in the last ten years!? Go over the fucking list and get back to me. I know you don't like Cine being brought up because you were part of the contingent here blowing smoke about what a great pick he was and how he was going to be this incredible mega weapon in our defense and how the shit trade compensation was more or less "a matter of opinion" when using different charts. I know it's not who you are as evidenced by any keyboard disagreement you get into on here, but it's ok to be wrong...and you were wrong on Cine.

supafreak84 wrote:

Lol according to whom!? Who are these great 1st round safeties drafted in the last ten years!? Go over the fucking list and get back to me. I know you don't like Cine being brought up because you were part of the contingent here blowing smoke about what a great pick he was and how he was going to be this incredible mega weapon in our defense and how the shit trade compensation was more or less "a matter of opinion" when using different charts. I know it's not who you are as evidenced by any keyboard disagreement you get into on here, but it's ok to be wrong...and you were wrong on Cine.

Cine Cine Cine!

You do realize you keep proving my point, right?

JustInTime wrote:

Again, lowest bust rate of any position but, lol, Cine Cine Cine!

Comical

Guys I typically disagree with you, Can, and JR. 

Auspicious company  :cool:

We actually agree far more than you give any credit for, but I see you have to still be an absolute gem. You make this board unbearable.

Canthony wrote:

We actually agree far more than you give any credit for, but I see you have to still be an absolute gem. You make this board unbearable.

So, if I make the board “unbearable” for you, why do you constantly engage me? You really need to seek professional help. I’m not joking.

JustInTime wrote:

So, if I make the board “unbearable” for you, why do you constantly engage me? You really need to seek professional help. I’m not joking.

lol I see you’re still the same old person. Not much has changed. Well I have, I don’t care what you’re doing to me. I’m saying the way you bully people is disturbing. He’ll it don’t bother me that you do it to me, but it bothers me the way you treat others. Condescending fucking tool is what you are. 

I can go back and forth with you all day. I won’t lose sleep. I laugh at most of your shit  

Have a great day, though.

Canthony wrote:

lol I see you’re still the same old person. Not much has changed. Well I have, I don’t care what you’re doing to me. I’m saying the way you bully people is disturbing. He’ll it don’t bother me that you do it to me, but it bothers me the way you treat others. Condescending fucking tool is what you are. 

I can go back and forth with you all day. I won’t lose sleep. I laugh at most of your shit  

Have a great day, though.

Which is it? It’s unbearable or “it don’t bother me”. 

Lol

Canthony wrote:

lol I see you’re still the same old person. Not much has changed. Well I have, I don’t care what you’re doing to me. I’m saying the way you bully people is disturbing. He’ll it don’t bother me that you do it to me, but it bothers me the way you treat others. Condescending fucking tool is what you are. 

I can go back and forth with you all day. I won’t lose sleep. I laugh at most of your shit  

Have a great day, though.

It's ok that he frequently doesnt agree with our takes because he doesn't have the greatest track record anyway. I was actually happy to see him back after his lengthy hiatus because I value the draft info he posts, but he is still the same pompous ass he was as the day he left. If you disagree with him, it immediately turns into backhanded insults or him questioning your "sanity." It's the standard Barr playbook we've all seen for years. Just let the keyboard king sit on his throne feeling special and making his standard 30 posts a day. Gives him something to do between bags of Cheetos, vodka, and job applications. Auspicious company indeed...