Sam Darnold Prediction

StickierBuns wrote:
The author is a mortgage loan officer from Sioux Falls, lol. So he's a fan, just like us. Unfortunately with Twitter now being completely fucked up by Musk, you get crazy shit in your feed like this from random fans. But its an opinion, so its as good as anything right now until some games are played.

All I can say for sure is this is Darnold's best opportunity he's ever had. What he'll do with it is anyone's opinion. Sam will need to make me a believer, but I'm rooting for him.

Tanner Weber? I don't know anything about him, but this prediction was from ESPN, supposedly.

In 22 Kirko played 17 games; 4,547 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions

Those espn stat predictions might not be too far off. So hard to predict with ??? around addison, tjh and can aaron jones stay healthy.

I'm counting wins, not stats.  He only needs to win 1 of our first 3 to be better than last season but I think he will do much better than that.

My prediction is a resounding victory for the Darnold in November!!!

I mean whatever on stats, wins is the big one. My son says 5-6 wins. I hope he can turn it around but we'll see

Like how are you/we defining what a top QB is? If you are going by volume stats like yards and TDs, etc. The top 18ish spots are the top 18ish guys in terms of how many games they started, basically guys who started almost a full season. After that, you just have a long list of guys that didn’t complete a full season. So the quoted position in the OP is basically stating that Darnold would be among the worst QBs who would finish a full season, slightly above Russell Wilson and Bryce Young.

We also live in a time of supersized passing statistics, where we all still think of the old days that the top 2-3 QBs were above 4000 yards, but in reality, 10 QBs eclipsed 4000 yards last year. I’m guessing this is what that original quote was, it was a guy who was still thinking as if this was a decade or two ago.

If Darnold is worse than 18-20, it means he got injured or replaced. I would fully expect that Darnold is in that 3600/20-22TDs realm which would be a not good season for a full time starter. 3800 yards is doable. 27 TDs is way too high of an estimate. 17 Ints is probably about right if you project his career Int% onto a top 10ish volume passing offense.

That said, it’s hard to ignore the context that Darnold has never started or played in more than 13 games in a season. I think the quoted statline matches up pretty well with what I think he would end up with if he only played 13 games in the season.

StickierBuns wrote:

Ahh, I see that now. Thanks I missed that. Well, you know ESPN....full of hot air. Didn't some dude on their say yesterday that Minnesota should trade for Russ Wilson?

I didn't even click on that. At a time of unparalleled stupidity in the world and on Twitter, that may have been the stupidest thing ever.

That brings us to how Darnold can be successful this season.

The Panthers ran the ball more than 40 times in each of those four Darnold wins at the end of 2022.

Unless the Vikings lock Kevin O’Connell in his office, they will never do that. But they can take some lessons from the 2019 Vikings and also the way Darnold had success in 2022 — he was 3-1 in his first four starts with zero turnovers while throwing the ball a little more than 20 times per game — in crafting their path forward.

They can’t have Darnold throwing 35 or 40 times a game. He’ll start making mistakes and turning the ball over.

The Vikings ran 63 plays per game last season. If that number holds this season, ideally there would be about 30 Darnold throws, a few Darnold scrambles (yes, he’s pretty good at that) and 30 designed runs.

If Aaron Jones has another good year left in him and the Vikings’ defense stays healthy, a nine-win season and career rejuvenation for Darnold is possible.

Source: StarTribune

I did a shallow dive into Darnold back in 2021, his last full season.  

He was the 2nd most pressured QB that year which immediately tells you it’s difficult to
Assess him in a play action system. He ran Rpo and air Coryell concepts that year.  Pressure is the name of the game in Todays NFL, but it’s easy to think he will get to the middle of the pack with his supporting cast. 

His bad throw percentage was lower than many really big names. 

If he can be a middling QB for us, we will be competitive in all our games this year.

Bullazin wrote:
I did a shallow dive into Darnold back in 2021, his last full season.  

He was the 2nd most pressured QB that year which immediately tells you it’s difficult to
Assess him in a play action system. He ran Rpo and air Coryell concepts that year.  Pressure is the name of the game in Todays NFL, but it’s easy to think he will get to the middle of the pack with his supporting cast. 

His bad throw percentage was lower than many really big names. 

If he can be a middling QB for us, we will be competitive in all our games this year.

That's the way I see it also; except I think he will be better than mid pack due to his surround and coaching. He will be challenged right from the start. The Giants have a NT that can dominate Bradbury and their DC loves to blitz. They have a secondary that can be had if he goes over the top. I think he will be able to do it. I'm looking forward to a decent season. Should finish above .500 and potentially a fair amount better. I'm on board for this year, not waiting for next year!

My prediction is that we miss the playoffs and Darnold will be the reason why.

3700 yards 24 td 13 ints. 

IFFFF The Defense and running game rank between 14-19 the Vikings will win 10 games.

IFFFF Not 7 wins.

Purple colored glasses say Vikings will become a high flying fun team to watch on Offence and Defense the Kicker will be lights out and they will enjoy some magic in the Vein of 1998, 2009 and 2017.

purplefaithful wrote:
That brings us to how Darnold can be successful this season.

The Panthers ran the ball more than 40 times in each of those four Darnold wins at the end of 2022.

Unless the Vikings lock Kevin O’Connell in his office, they will never do that. But they can take some lessons from the 2019 Vikings and also the way Darnold had success in 2022 — he was 3-1 in his first four starts with zero turnovers while throwing the ball a little more than 20 times per game — in crafting their path forward.

They can’t have Darnold throwing 35 or 40 times a game. He’ll start making mistakes and turning the ball over.

The Vikings ran 63 plays per game last season. If that number holds this season, ideally there would be about 30 Darnold throws, a few Darnold scrambles (yes, he’s pretty good at that) and 30 designed runs.

If Aaron Jones has another good year left in him and the Vikings’ defense stays healthy, a nine-win season and career rejuvenation for Darnold is possible.

Source: StarTribune

This, plus a competent defense and above average special teams is the path for the team to be good. It’s really walking a tightrope with this roster this season but crazier things have happened and it’s why NFL is king.

As to @hogjow, dude Cousins was barely above mid-pack! If Darnold can do that he’ll be Comeback Player of the Year and we’ll really be in business. Can’t say I’m as optimistic but it’d be a lot of fun.

In year 7 of his NFL career Sam Darnold at long last begins to play well because... purple jersey!

Also I've got high-grade Florida swampland for sale at great prices, you don't wanna miss out! pm me for details.

I doubt he makes it through the season, but if he somehow does, here are my predictions:

64% completion rate, 22 td and 14 int and 3,653 yards

This will be the best system Sam has played in and by a fairly significant margin. I see that as being a big help to him. Accuracy is his number 1 problem, and although I foresee an improvement, it’s not an area that usually gets significantly better.

With that said, even with less than stellar play from him, I think the team can win some games. As long as the defense continues to get better, they will keep the team in games. If you can manage that, anything can happen.

StickierBuns wrote:
“He’s just jittery, man.”

Yup. Just put on the film and it jumps out at you. The hope for Sam mostly rests on what ifs - what if somehow being in purple means he isn't the same guy he's always been. But people peddling that seem to have never looked at the film. His issues are between his ears, not who he played for, etc. His mistakes are on him.

I do think if he somehow got more confidence the jitters might be reduced. I don't know if playing for KOC will cause that to happen but it's his best hope for a resurrection.

3200 yards 19 TDs 24 Ints

Benched after week 14 for Mullens

FLVike wrote:
I'm counting wins, not stats.  He only needs to win 1 of our first 3 to be better than last season but I think he will do much better than that.

Sam Darnold is gonna make Kirk Cousins look like Tom Brady

I don't think Darnold will have a long enough leash to throw 20+ INTs like some are predicting.

If you annualize his current stats (with 4 games to play), he'd finish with:

4314 Yards
36 TD
13 Int
Rating of 108.1
Completion ratio of 68.4%

Pretty remarkable considering his previous body of work

Hey, I wasn't too far off. But here's what I find interesting. NFL.com ranked the 2024 free agent QB class before anyone had signed...

Cousins, Mayfield, Minshew, Huntley, Rudolph, Brissett, Browning and Tyrod Taylor all ranked above the Ginger Jesus. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-free-agency-which-quarterbacks-must-be-re-signed-who-will-attract-interest-on-open-market