Trevor Lawrence gets paid

medaille wrote:


In 4 years, you’re going to know if he’s elite-ish or not elite.  Especially with our supporting cast, the elite guys are going to shine or they aren’t.  There’s no such thing as a promising QB going into their 5th season.  Sure maybe they haven’t already been to a SB yet, but you sure as shit know if they’re shining like the great ones.  If you don’t have an elite QB, your odds of winning a SB are almost zero.  The 3-5 teams with an elite QB (warning:  BS numbers ahead) probably have 80% chance that one of them is winning the SB.  The other 27-29 teams are sharing that other 20%.  Sure a team like the Rams can mortgage their future, go all in, remain injury-free, and it can work out, but that’s not a likely strategy.
 
You keep phrasing things as if the only option is to draft one and only one QB and then wait 4-5 years and at that point, if he’s mid you’re forced to make a choice out of desperation on whether to keep your mid QB for a ton of money or hope that a new savior is there to be picked.
 
Do you know who didn’t mortgage the future to get their QBs?  The teams that drafted Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Hurt, Brees, Favre, etc.  Obviously, some of those guys went on to become more successful after a trade, but elite QBs are available at any draft pick, you just have to have the stones to pick them when they are available.  They’re probably not going to be available the one year you desperately need a QB, you have to be willing to draft them when they’re available, not when you need them.  The worst case scenario of drafting a good QB is that you can trade them for more than you paid to get them.  The worst case scenario is that you draft a bust, but you can draft a bust at any position.  But you probably aren’t going to a SB if you don’t draft an elite QB, so you just have to decide if you want the process of drafting that elite QB to take 10-15 years or 45 years.

In 4 years, if we haven't made it to the NFC championship at least or if JJM isn't in the MVP talks, we should be starting the QB we drafted in 2026, and cutting bait on our mid-QB.

I think you are seeing a bit more of your mindset here with teams ready to move on from #1 drafted QBs quicker than ever in NFL history the last 6 or 7 years. Kind of the no more 'good money after bad' theory. I think some teams are realizing, after getting kicked in the nuts time after time, more investment and patience should come on the front end of the rookie QB curve....but some teams will never learn. Mostly because some organizations are better run than others, just like any large corporation. Put an assessment in place in-house to determine WHEN a rookie is ready to play, despite the current situation with the franchise. Don't act desperately or reactively. Also put in KPIs that show WHEN you should cut bait, along with intangibles that are red flags when you get to know them better as players on your team. Assign a point system to the KPIs, keep it a fluid document, and you'll have data and metrics to help make important decisions on the most important position in sports. But there will have to be some exceptions, like Trevor Lawrence. Because what is he and what can he be? There will be some gray areas, it won't all be black and white.

I think you can make an argument that they could've waited a year. But what would you have to pay him then? Likely a lot more since the Jags are an improving team. 

I just think there would be an absolute feeding frenzy if a QB like Lawrence hit the open market. The guy's only 24 years old, played only 3 seasons, the 1st of which was pretty bad, but it was a terrible 3-14 team. I mean, the whole reason they were able to draft Lawrence #1 overall is because they were 1-15 the year before. Since then, they've put a little more talent around him and they've had back-to-back winning seasons with a division title and Lawrence throwing for over 4,000 yards in each.

I think his potential 2, 4, 10 years down the road is enormous. And that's what they're paying for.

Case in point that there are gray areas, details and inside information to these decisions. Its easy for fans to make blanket statements and be judgmental:

https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/1808324853402943838