Major Juice

StickierBuns wrote:
lmao, I almost a week ago started a thread just like this I was going to call Major Juice. Too funny.

JJM has all the arm you'd ever want at the position. KOC won't need to restrict any part of the playbook. The exciting part is the plays he'll make throwing deep when he's flushed and moving around. Long way to go, but physically he's what you'd want to build off of. He'll throw a tight spiral. Fingers crossed on this kid. He also threw the ball to WR Roman Wilson who ran a 4.39 forty at the Combine, so he knows what its like to throw to a fast dude.

It's interesting that early on in the draft process McCarthy was considered a system guy. Winner, can run your offense efficiently, good leader, has some IT factor. But damned if he isn't all that PLUS a toolsy QB with 4.48 speed and what will be one of the strongest arms in the NFL.  

Accuracy and the ability to layer throws into windows will always be more important than foot speed and arm strength, and all that remains to be seen, but there's no doubt KOC has a pretty tantalizing piece of clay to work with.

MaroonBells wrote:

It's interesting that early on in the draft process McCarthy was considered a system guy. Winner, can run your offense efficiently, good leader, has some IT factor. But damned if he isn't all that PLUS a toolsy QB with 4.48 speed and what will be one of the strongest arms in the NFL.  

Accuracy and the ability to layer throws into windows will always be more important than foot speed and arm strength, and all that remains to be seen, but there's no doubt KOC has a pretty tantalizing piece of clay to work with.

I think we have a winner here...  :)

the biggest thing will be to see if he can control that cannon, touch IMO is more important that velocity on many pro level throws, the "window" is rarely there as often as there is a bucket to drop them into.

JimmyinSD wrote:
the biggest thing will be to see if he can control that cannon,  touch IMO is more important that velocity on many pro level throws,  the "window" is rarely there as often as there is a  bucket to drop them into.

I think it was back in November when I mentioned him and that I thought he was pretty good and you said that was your guy. He definitely looks promising.

FLVike wrote:

I think it was back in November when I mentioned him and that I thought he was pretty good and you said that was your guy. He definitely looks promising.

I was pretty high on Penix, especially in November, but JJ was a in there with Nix as my favorite 3, never could get on board with the first 3, just think the best of the draft will come from the next group.

More and more, it seems like the two knocks our heir-apparent rookie are "raw technique" and "protected by system".

Ok, let's consider these:

1. I'm assuming that most or all of us have seen references to "plans" that KOC and his crew had drawn up for potential draftee QBs, and the acquisition of Darnold tells me that they fully intend to work at THEIR pace as much as possible to bring the kid along as they see fit. Because of the (endless) references to this, I'm fairly confident that our QB coaching group is probably calling/texting/etc JJM more than family, sneaking in every bit of possible work, and hopefully the kid is putting in the time on his own to refine his rougher edges.

2. I admit to finding this complaint silly, as yeah...Michigan had a strong running game, and was able to keep things a bit easier on JJM as a result. That said, he has a solid compilation of highlights to draw from, and some of the mobility that so many have pined for in recent years. FACT: every successful system will try and capitalize on the strengths of its personnel, cover the weaknesses to an extent, and adapt to attack the weaknesses of the other team. That's the fuggin' job, so it's odd that "analysts" hack on JJM/Michigan for doing it well.

Plain and simple there was never much need for him to go out and have 30 plus attempts on a regular basis or to make frequent splash plays. Doesn't mean the talent isn't there. How often have we had to listen to MN fans drone on about wins being the only stat that matters? And that a QB who wins with average stats is better than a guy with a losing record but gaudy stats?

34-2 record in highschool. 27-1 record as a starter at Michigan. Third best win percentage by a starting QB in NCAAF history. Won a highschool state championship, highschool concensus national championship, three Big 10 championships and NCAAF national championship. I'd say that's a winner.

As for the system protecting him. Play defense, run the ball, control the clock.They excelled at these things, should they have went away from that formula just so JJM could be more appealing to fans?  They were tied for first with 40 rushing TDs. Their average scoring margin was second best at 25.5 points. Not exactly a reason to go out and throw the ball around when you are up big early and often.

As I recall, the phrase "garbage stats" used to be thrown around here often. If he had more stats in games where they were up 20 points early would that make people more comfortable? Or would they be garbage stats?

bigbone62 wrote:
Plain and simple there was never much need for him to go out and have 30 plus attempts on a regular basis or to make frequent splash plays. Doesn't mean the talent isn't there. How often have we had to listen to MN fans drone on about wins being the only stat that matters? And that a QB who wins with average stats is better than a guy with a losing record but gaudy stats?

34-2 record in highschool. 27-1 record as a starter at Michigan. Third best win percentage by a starting QB in NCAAF history. Won a highschool state championship, highschool concensus national championship, three Big 10 championships and NCAAF national championship. I'd say that's a winner.

As for the system protecting him. Play defense, run the ball, control the clock.They excelled at these things, should they have went away from that formula just so JJM could be more appealing to fans?  They were tied for first with 40 rushing TDs. Their average scoring margin was second best at 25.5 points. Not exactly a reason to go out and throw the ball around when you are up big early and often.

As I recall, the phrase "garbage stats" used to be thrown around here often. If he had more stats in games where they were up 20 points early would that make people more comfortable? Or would they be garbage stats?

What's funny is that "garbage time" is loosely meant to define offensive efforts when two or more scores ahead/behind late in the game...so, on one hand, it's padding a lead, on another, it's scoring a few futile points...

...on yet another, it's accomplishing major comebacks, despite the very stats involved in the comeback falling under "garbage" definitions. I've always found that logic desperately flawed, especially when it was applied to a recent Vikings QB.

JimmyinSD wrote:
the biggest thing will be to see if he can control that cannon,  touch IMO is more important that velocity on many pro level throws,  the "window" is rarely there as often as there is a  bucket to drop them into.

Exactly what I was thinking, Jimmy.  
You've got to throw a "catchable" ball, too.  
I remember when Packers WR's would joke about having an "X" embedded in their chest from catching one of Favre's famous rifle shots in the midsection.

Montana Tom wrote:

Exactly what I was thinking, Jimmy.  
You've got to throw a "catchable" ball, too.  
I remember when Packers WR's would joke about having an "X" embedded in their chest from catching one of Favre's famous rifle shots in the midsection.

They didn't track velocity back then, but I'd love to know what Favre's was. Jeff George and John Elway too. I did hear that the Broncos would set the jugs machine at 70 MPH to prepare the receivers for Elways rockets.

JimmyinSD wrote:

I was pretty high on Penix,  especially in November,  but JJ was a in there with Nix as my favorite 3,  never could get on board with the first 3,  just think the best of the draft will come from the next group.

I meant to respond to Stickerbuns, but yes, me and you were high on Penix.

bigbone62 wrote:
Plain and simple there was never much need for him to go out and have 30 plus attempts on a regular basis or to make frequent splash plays. Doesn't mean the talent isn't there. How often have we had to listen to MN fans drone on about wins being the only stat that matters? And that a QB who wins with average stats is better than a guy with a losing record but gaudy stats?

34-2 record in highschool. 27-1 record as a starter at Michigan. Third best win percentage by a starting QB in NCAAF history. Won a highschool state championship, highschool concensus national championship, three Big 10 championships and NCAAF national championship. I'd say that's a winner.

As for the system protecting him. Play defense, run the ball, control the clock.They excelled at these things, should they have went away from that formula just so JJM could be more appealing to fans?  They were tied for first with 40 rushing TDs. Their average scoring margin was second best at 25.5 points. Not exactly a reason to go out and throw the ball around when you are up big early and often.

As I recall, the phrase "garbage stats" used to be thrown around here often. If he had more stats in games where they were up 20 points early would that make people more comfortable? Or would they be garbage stats?

Forgot the "BOOM"

His passing splits last season are crazy...  almost twice as many attempts in the first half compared to the second half.  And then you dig further and his attempts in the 4th quarter for the season are about as many as some QBs had in one game.

Michigan was so dominate last year, they built big leads most of the team and then ground it out in the 4th quarter.  Smart plan with that defense and Blake Corum at RB and winning QB who was top 2 in efficiency on 3rd downs.

If Michigan threw as much in the 2nd half as they did in the first half...  McCarthy would have been around 4,000 yards, 28-30 TDs, and 6-8 INTs.  Very similar passing stats to Caleb Williams...  Would that change the narrative on him a bit?  

Pretty impressive considering didn't have a first round WR to throw to, let alone two like Jayden Daniels.  Caleb Williams had Addison two years ago during his Heisman season.  Penix had Odunze who went #9.  If JJ can handle the mental load of the NFL, he'll be a really good QB for us.  

BOOM

I'm all in on JJM with the rest of you, but I'm not sure I buy the top 1% arm strength thing. Unless I'm going crazy, does it not seem like Darnold is throwing the ball harder than McCarthy in the OTA highlights? Idk how the numbers in OP's post are measured and I'm not disputing them, it just doesn't quite line up with what I'm seeing with my eyes so far.

Both guys have plus arms, which is great. Looking forward to watching them play in purple for real.

pattersaur wrote:
I'm all in on JJM with the rest of you, but I'm not sure I buy the top 1% arm strength thing. Unless I'm going crazy, does it not seem like Darnold is throwing the ball harder than McCarthy in the OTA highlights? Idk how the numbers in OP's post are measured and I'm not disputing them, it just doesn't quite line up with what I'm seeing with my eyes so far.

Both guys have plus arms, which is great. Looking forward to watching them play in purple for real.

I wouldn't put too much weight on passes thrown at OTAs. I think a good QB uses plus arm strength as a tool to use only when needed. John Elway's early struggles were because he used only one speed: FULL. It took him a few years to realize he was better off varying his velocity based on route and coverage.

StickierBuns wrote:

JJM has been learning to throw with more air and touch (going back to preseason before his last year at Michigan), so he's not unloading very often. I see a lot of 'placement' throws from him in OTAs footage, trying to be accurate. Once he gets more confident, understands where guys will be on plays and playing against a live defense, you'll see the vapor trail throws into tight windows.

Great points by you and MB about him working on touch right now. Makes sense. Also confirms I'm not going crazy, so that's nice too.

Is there any film of him out there rocketing the ball around or was it only at the combine velocity test?

medaille wrote:
Is there any film of him out there rocketing the ball around or was it only at the combine velocity test?

I don't understand the question. There's plenty of film of JJ at both Michigan and OTAs. It sounds like you're skeptical that the velo test isn't an accurate gauge of a QB's arm strength? I don't think it's any different than a 40 time. Sure, some players play fast and some time fast, but still, it gives you a pretty good idea.

StickierBuns wrote:

Sure. That's what the search function on Google is for or the multiple threads with his highlights in them on this board.

I personally wouldn't take 100% stock in the velocity test. Is it an indicator of arm strength? Yes. Does it mean JJM's arm is as strong as Joe Milton III? IMO, no. Reporters at OTAs have brought up JJM's arm strength and Addison just said yesterday at a presser that JJM 'throws a tight spiral....you have to be ready and make sure and catch it'. RPMs on a tight spiral always means arm strength. 

JJM does not have a Josh Allen arm. But its a plus arm for sure.

Joe Milton has a cannon of an arm, but it's a loose cannon.  His accuracy is kinda like my spitballs...I might hit you, I might not.  I watched him in the Senior Bowl and he was scary inaccurate.  As in "no way, Jose".

Montana Tom wrote:

Joe Milton has a cannon of an arm, but it's a loose cannon.  His accuracy is kinda like my spitballs...I might hit you, I might not.  I watched him in the Senior Bowl and he was scary inaccurate.  As in "no way, Jose".

Saw that too. I wanted to like him--to add another QB to the mix. But he was just god awful. He was spiking 3 yard gimmes in the flat. He's got tools to work with, but he's going to need a half decade of work.

“JJ McCarthy - 61 mph. JJ showed to have a huge arm, better than people probably realized. This is among the fastest ever recorded.

Bo Nix - 58 mph. Oddly, Nix didn’t take a drop or wind up. He just stood upright and armed it. Based on watching JJM and him throw together, he’s probably about 60 mph if he throws it with a wind up like the rest if them.

All three have very impressive ball velocities. There are a number of years where no player matched any of these. Average starters are probably around the 55 mph mark. Joe Milton’s was not a surprise. His arm strength has never been in question, just accuracy. JJM on the other hand, recorded a higher velocity than Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield’s 60 mph. The kid can seriously spin it and I have to wonder if he’ll get stronger yet. I had been curious about this as his tape isn’t as easy to decipher it. Nix matches the tape for the most part. He’s along the lines of a Cousins or Rodgers - excellent but not elite.

Ball velocity isn’t the be all end all, but there’s little doubt these guys can spin it with the top players in the league.”

I wrote the above after the combine. Arm strength is something I pay a lot of attention to after the Ponder boondoggle. What I have found is people in general, are exceptionally poor at judging speed/velocity. Perhaps the years in my youth running radar paid off - it’s easy for me. It’s how I can see a guy like Drake Maye does not have the arm people believe he does. He’s probably a 55-56 guy and might be one of the reasons he didn’t throw at the combine. 55-57 is just fine for the NFL, but it’s not what he was being sold as. 

It’s actually not that hard to figure out arm strength. First, don’t use the eye test. Odds are exceptionally low you can be accurate about the velocity. The combine gives us an actual radar gun measurement- which is hugely useful (and likely a reason some of these guys won’t throw), and we can watch tape for air yards travelled.

Is there a big difference between JJM and Joe Milton? Not at all. That’s your eyes playing tricks on you. Both guys giving their all throw a few yards apart to Milton’s favor. JJM is just below Milton and Allen with an arm that is still developing. I noticed a number of years ago when Blake Bortles came out, people perceive “big guys throw hard”. Uh no. That isn’t always the case. Like I said, not many people can estimate velocity well.

From this draft the strongest arms are:

1. Joe Milton
2. JJM
3. Bo Nix
3. Caleb Williams - these two are about the same. Nix is on tape with a throw a yard further it’s negligible.
4. Michael Penix
5. Drake Maye
6. Jayden Daniels

The last three are very close - all have very good arm strength.

As a whole, they have the most arm talent if any draft group I’ve ever seen.

Now for my JJM comp for arm strength and athleticism: Randall Cunningham
The upper level athleticism to go with a big time top 5 arm is there. A true prototypical dual threat QB.