My rookie year predictions for all 6 QBs

I agree JJ/Penix will be the least likely to see the field in 24.

I do think that not only will Maye play in 24, but will play earlier than advised.

Good call on Nix; decent surround, Payton, high floor out of college.

Wanna bet we'll hear fans claiming Vikes made a mistake on JJ and should have taken Nix in that scenario???

purplefaithful wrote:
I agree JJ/Penix will be the least likely to see the field in 24.

I do think that not only will Maye play in 24, but will play earlier than advised.

Good call on Nix; decent surround, Payton, high floor out of college.

Wanna bet we'll hear fans claiming Vikes made a mistake on JJ and should have taken Nix in that scenario???

MaroonBells wrote:

StickierBuns wrote:
There's already a few fans who have been conspicuous by their silence over drafting JJM so they can pounce and say he's a bust.

And even if the Vikings do the probable right thing (sit jj for the season) we'll hear how he cant even beat out Darnold. 

As an aside, with the schedule out, there is already local media musings on when JJ will start this season.

StickierBuns wrote:
There's already a few fans who have been conspicuous by their silence over drafting JJM so they can pounce and say he's a bust.

I will admit, I have my reservations, I love the kids attitude and apparent desire to be Viking, but his lack of experience in the college ranks leaves me wondering if he is what some think he will be, I would have liked to seen at least one more year on his resume. I was at a corporate thing last week with 4 guys from Michigan and they all said the same thing when one of my co-workers asked if we have a good one... "hes a great kid", "great leader", "good work ethic", none wanted to come out and say we have out QB of the future, of course they were all Lions fans, so maybe they were a little shell shocked by Goffs new contract.

StickierBuns wrote:

JJM is no sure thing, he can bust for sure.....for the reasons you mention. I won't deny its not a concern for me. But I'd have some kind of concern for any QB chosen. But they all have a clean slate as of this moment so I'm just hopeful about McCarthy. I speak more to those few that haven't mentioned any upside, but sit in silence waiting for him to fail. Its fandom for some I suppose.

I dont think there is any poster on here that has banged the let them sit a year drum longer or louder than me, but at the same time, I love seeing the kids get a chance to get out there and show where they are at in their development. It one thing I always loved about HS football, once the game is decided, typically both coaches us the last few minutes to get the underclassmen some reps so you get to see the kids grow up in the game, would be cool if there was a way the NFL could get their younger guys reps in meaningless games and situations outside of the couple of preseason games. I love to see the players develop.

JimmyinSD wrote:

I dont think there is any poster on here that has banged the let them sit a year drum longer or louder than me,  but at the same time,  I love seeing the kids get a chance to get out there and show where they are at in their development.  It one thing I always loved about HS football,  once the game is decided,  typically both coaches us the last few minutes to get the underclassmen some reps so you get to see the kids grow up in the game,  would be cool if there was a way the NFL could get their younger guys reps in meaningless games and situations outside of the couple of preseason games.  I love to see the players develop.

Totally agree.  As I have not watch more than a few plays of JJM's college career, I don't have a strong opinion regarding his future -- I only thing I feel is that he needs the most proven development scheme which is sitting him for a good period of time.  I would love to see a study regarding the success rate of first round QBs who play immediately versus those who sit the majority of their rookie year.  Yes, there will be some who are prepared to play immediately, but I suspect that the majority benefit greatly from sitting.

StickierBuns wrote:

What sticks out in my memory, jimmy, is when Trey Lance was drafted and what the 49ers gave up and you straight up thought it was a big mistake. Said he didn't play enough CFB. And you were right. I mean, didn't he play like one game his last year in college and sat the rest of the season so he wouldnt get injured? That's nuts. He played at North Dakota State, he needed every rep he could get. He basically played one season out of 3 he was there.

IIRC his last year was the covid year where they only got 1 game or something like that, but yeah, he played low level high school ball ( no offense the the Marshall MN crowd), but then only 1 full season at ND, once again not a high level game, he really needed a lot more mentoring than he got once he was drafted, I admit I didnt watch much Michigan football this year and know very little about JJMs game, so my silence is more out of saving myself an embarrassing take than me laying in wait, besides my boy Penix was off the table and I didnt really want to see us putting more draft capital into a player they werent 100% in on from jump.

JimmyinSD wrote:

I will admit,  I have my reservations,  I love the kids attitude and apparent desire to be Viking,  but his lack of experience in the college ranks leaves me wondering if he is what some think he will be,  I would have liked to seen at least one more year on his resume.  I was at a corporate thing last week with 4 guys from Michigan and they all said the same thing when one of my co-workers asked if we have a good one... "hes a great kid",  "great leader", "good work ethic",  none wanted to come out and say we have out QB of the future,  of course they were all Lions fans, so maybe they were a little shell shocked by Goffs new contract.

I know a few huge Michigan fans as well and while they love JJM, it's not like they're over the moon about his pro prospects either. Cautiously hopeful is how I'd describe them. But what do they know! He's Elway and Montana combined baby!!

I like OP's list a lot and it seems sensible... but there's a lot of franchises and owners in this league who aren't sensible... so here's my takes:

Williams will show enough for the media to crown him the next big thing.

Penix Jr- Kirk won't be ready to start the year and ATL will cave to pressure and start Penix. He'll play well enough that this becomes a full-blown mess much sooner than expected.

JJM- Will take the reigns ~halfway through and will take his lumps but mix in some magic. We'll all be elated to have a QB with some mobility and a still-un-re-signed Jefferson will gain even more leverage and more money based on his rapport with McCarthy.

StickierBuns wrote:
JJ looks all of 219 lbs. here.

Minnesota #Vikings QB1 J.J. McCarthy.

The Vikings jersey looks soooo 🔥 on him. #Skolpic.twitter.com/XtpBMlwcSs

— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) May 18, 2024

The jump pass made famous by Tavarus Jackson.... Wont this make a few heads explode. :)

JimmyinSD wrote:

The jump pass made famous by Tavarus Jackson.... Wont this make a few heads explode. :)

I got the Resolve carpet cleaner ready  :cool:

VikingOracle wrote:

Totally agree.  As I have not watch more than a few plays of JJM's college career, I don't have a strong opinion regarding his future -- I only thing I feel is that he needs the most proven development scheme which is sitting him for a good period of time.  I would love to see a study regarding the success rate of first round QBs who play immediately versus those who sit the majority of their rookie year.  Yes, there will be some who are prepared to play immediately, but I suspect that the majority benefit greatly from sitting.

I read somewhere that several Chief players were raving about Mahomes in practice during his rookie season. Still, they made him sit the whole year, save for a week 17 start in a meaningless game. 

Some QBs like Cam Newton, Trevor Lawrence, etc have started week 1, but I sometimes wonder if they might not have been better long term if they had sat a year to develop. Everyone's so impatient, but I think it's best if when the young QB sees real bullets, he knows the offense inside and out. 

Anyway, here's a year-old breakdown of what you're asking for. Hard to gain anything definitive from this, but the year-two column looks pretty good. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/history-of-nfl-qbs-waiting-to-start-heres-what-stats-since-2000-say-about-when-theyll-most-likely-succeed/

Sounds like PA read my QB predictions...

According to @PAOnTheMic via @KFAN1003, his BOLD proclamation is that Sam Darnold will play every single game for the Minnesota #Vikings this season unless he gets hurt 👀

“So here's the proclamation. Hardcore football. Sam Darnold will play every single game for the Minnesota… pic.twitter.com/zR0ziXaDSw

— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) May 21, 2024

MaroonBells wrote:
Sounds like PA read my QB predictions...

According to @PAOnTheMic via @KFAN1003, his BOLD proclamation is that Sam Darnold will play every single game for the Minnesota #Vikings this season unless he gets hurt 👀

“So here's the proclamation. Hardcore football. Sam Darnold will play every single game for the Minnesota… pic.twitter.com/zR0ziXaDSw

— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) May 21, 2024

I am zen with that...

purplefaithful wrote:

I am zen with that...

Me too.  I don't expect Darnold to come in and be Kirk, but if he can keep us competitive and in the hunt so we can let JJ get as much time as he needs...  that's a huge plus.  Maybe he can be our Keenum this year?

StickierBuns wrote:

I do think Darnold will play decently, but I temper it with his career completion percentage is not good. Its probably the number one reason he's failed. RB Aaron Jones is going to be a huge help to him with dump off passes.

For sure.  We've seen KOC build in those easy completions into his offense, just need a QB who trusts himself to make the right read and throw.  Aaron Jones will definitely give us a more dynamic receiving back we haven't had since Cook was in his prime.  Hopefully Darnold can get his completion percentage to 63+ instead of the career 57-61% he's been.  I think between KOC's offense and the way he builds guys up will give Darnold more confidence and we'll see him play his best football yet.  Just not sure how "good" that will be...

Lots of unknowns regarding Darnold/McCarthy. First and foremost-- how will both play in training camp, preseason, and then (presumably for Sam) during the regular season?

But one aspect not getting discussed a ton is the Wilfs. I wonder where they stand on all of this. We've heard of meddlesome owners with other franchises for years pushing the new hotness into a starting position earlier than perhaps coaches wanted. I'm not sure the Wilfs will go that far but at least from my perspective, they've always prioritized putting butts in seats and being competitive.

Where we sit today, being competitive seems to mean, "Roll with Darnold". But what if that changes? If Darnold isn't playing well and the team is losing every week, will they be content to ride it out? I have my doubts. And they won't be alone in this either as all of the casual fans and even many diehards are going to want to see JJM get in there.

Should be interesting.

Maybe its just me, but I feel like the Wilfs have been in the background more the last few years vs early on in their ownership. I think they'll let KOC alone to run the QB room the best way he sees fit.

Fans and media are a whole other story. All of the pressure to play JJ in 24 goes away if Darnold ends-up being serviceable.

IMO, best thing that could happen is for JJ to come out in the preseason and not look great, show enough to give the fan base hope for the future, but not enough so that the bleacher creatures are chanting his name the first 3 and out of Darnolds Viking career. I really hope that we dont see him in any meaningful snaps this season.

pattersaur wrote:
Lots of unknowns regarding Darnold/McCarthy. First and foremost-- how will both play in training camp, preseason, and then (presumably for Sam) during the regular season?

But one aspect not getting discussed a ton is the Wilfs. I wonder where they stand on all of this. We've heard of meddlesome owners with other franchises for years pushing the new hotness into a starting position earlier than perhaps coaches wanted. I'm not sure the Wilfs will go that far but at least from my perspective, they've always prioritized putting butts in seats and being competitive.

Where we sit today, being competitive seems to mean, "Roll with Darnold". But what if that changes? If Darnold isn't playing well and the team is losing every week, will they be content to ride it out? I have my doubts. And they won't be alone in this either as all of the casual fans and even many diehards are going to want to see JJM get in there.

Should be interesting.

The Vikings (owners, gm, coach) should have one and only one priority: developing JJ McCarthy into the best QB he can be in 2025. If that means he sits the whole season, then he should sit the whole season. I don't think record will factor in.

MaroonBells wrote:

The Vikings (owners, gm, coach) should have one and only one priority: developing JJ McCarthy into the best QB he can be in 2025. If that means he sits the whole season, then he should sit the whole season. I don't think record will factor in.

Completely agree that should be priority 1. But is sitting him all year the best way to do that? Time will tell, to a degree.

I do think some are being unrealistic with the "sit him all year" thing though.

Jordan Love was sitting behind the literal MVP.

Mahomes was sitting behind Alex Smith, who had KC in the playoffs.

The list of top 10 QB picks who sat for a full season behind a shaky starter is not long. If Darnold has us in the playoff hunt then absolutely keep him in there and ride that lightning. If not? Everyone is gonna be antsy and JJM is gonna see a lot of time.