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Hard to believe we still 10 games to go, but I ain't feeling too bullish these days.
The offense I can explain away to some degree, the D?
That is more alarming imo.
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Coach Kevin O’Connell highlighted the need for interior offensive line upgrades from the postgame podium on Jan. 13, after the Vikings’ season had ended with nine sacks in a wild-card loss to the Rams. The Vikings signed Colts center Ryan Kelly to a two-year contract, gave his teammate Will Fries a five-year deal worth $88 million and used their first-round pick on Ohio State guard Donovan Jackson.
They also pursued more interior pass rush, meeting with multiple defensive tackles in the pre-draft process while talking with Jonathan Allen’s Minneapolis-based representatives after the former Pro Bowler was released by the Commanders. The Vikings gave Allen a three-year, $51 million deal and signed Javon Hargrave for $30 million over two years shortly after he was released by the 49ers.
The Vikings felt good enough about the two veterans, as well as depth pieces like Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez, that they traded Harrison Phillips to the Jets in August.
All told, the Vikings committed more than $300 million to players this offseason, between the free agents they added and the players from their 2024 roster they re-signed. It followed General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s offseason manifesto about building a team “that could win any type of fight,” and, the Vikings hoped, surrounded J.J. McCarthy with enough proven talent that the 22-year-old quarterback wouldn’t have to display full mastery of the position in his first months as a starter for the team to win.
Nearly eight months after they started the plan, and seven games into a season that’s grated on their nerves, the Vikings face deep uncertainty and daunting future costs along both lines of scrimmage.
They’ve used 10 different offensive linemen in seven games and still haven’t played a snap with their five preferred starters. They’ve given up at least two sacks in every game, and on Thursday night, the Chargers pressured Carson Wentz on 40.6% of his dropbacks despite blitzing him just 15.6% of the time.
As O’Connell grew concerned about the Vikings executing in the run game with right tackle Brian O’Neill out, as well as Christian Darrisaw and tight end Josh Oliver leaving because of injury, they handed off just 11 times for 34 yards against an opponent with the NFL’s fifth-worst run defense.
Hargrave, who played at least 67% of the Vikings’ defensive snaps in three of their first four games, hasn’t exceeded 50% since, as Redmond plays a larger role. Redmond, who had nine pressures Thursday, is now at 64.6% of the Vikings’ defensive snaps for the season, compared with 49.9% for Hargrave. Redmond also leads the team with three sacks; the two former Pro Bowlers have two each.
A team that began the season talking about a stifling defense and supportive front for McCarthy has had neither. After missing five games because of injury, the 22-year-old quarterback is set to return for a division matchup against the Lions at Ford Field, where the Vikings haven’t won since 2021, hoping for his first consistent full game as an NFL starter.
If it all seems concerning now, the Vikings are heading toward critical decisions along both lines of scrimmage this offseason.
They have more than $347 million of cap commitments for next year, meaning they could need to cut more than $30 million of space by next March just to be cap compliant. The Vikings could save money on restructures for players like T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones, but many of their decisions could hinge on those they added along the lines of scrimmage.
Hargrave has a $21.49 million cap number for next year, and the Vikings would save $11 million by releasing him. Releasing Kelly, who’s played just three games because of concussions this year, would mean a $7.89 million cap savings. Allen’s deal would have $17.33 million of dead money if the Vikings cut him, and the team would save only $4.28 million with a release, so he might have a stronger chance to stay.
If the Vikings slide, though, and appear headed toward a larger roster reset in 2026, it’s hard to rule anything out.
STRIB
They remain in need of meaningful contributions from young players like Redmond, a UFL signee who has helped counteract a lack of production from draft picks. Dallas Turner, the edge rusher the Vikings traded up to draft 17th overall last year, is the most notable example. He’s already exceeded his snap count from his rookie year while Andrew Van Ginkel is out with a neck injury, but in 324 snaps this season, he’s registered only two sacks and 18 pressures, which is tied for 42nd among NFL edge rushers, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Vikings could have as many as 11 picks in next year’s draft, including four in the top 100, thanks to a third-round compensatory pick for Sam Darnold. They structured a series of August trades with the 2026 draft in view, trying to retain as much draft capital as possible, and could approach the upcoming trade deadline with the same factors in mind.
The 2026 draft appears to be a key opportunity for a front office that’s struggled to hit on draft picks under Adofo-Mensah. And with the Vikings’ age at certain positions (particularly on defense), as well as their salary cap situation for next year, the need for players who can contribute on rookie contracts is as high as ever.
They mostly sought upgrades in free agency this year, when they made just five draft picks in April, and they began the season with optimism about a feisty defense that made itself seen and heard in training camp practices.
Through seven games, though, the Vikings’ offensive line injuries have led to protection problems familiar to the ones they had last year, while a porous run defense and less potent pass rush are new problems on defense. To get it fixed, they’ll have to improve over a nasty 10-game schedule that resumes in Detroit next Sunday.
In their first seven games, the Vikings haven’t been able to win the kinds of fights they hoped their offseason investments would secure. Bloodied at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night, they headed into their mini-bye with unsolved issues that carry an expensive price tag.
The first seven games have revealed the difference between a plan on paper and results on the field.
Vikings General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah hit a jackpot with his free-agent class in 2024. His repeated draft failures forced him to lean on that methodology again in trying to improve the roster, yet splashy signings have not produced splashy performances. The personnel on the field Thursday looked old and slow, especially on defense.
Many of us fell into the age-old trap of focusing on a player’s past results in setting expectations, rather than acknowledging that a fountain of youth doesn’t exist in the NFL. Signing players on the wrong side of 30 with injury histories is always risky.
The Vikings were built upon the premise of being physical bullies in the trenches. Injuries and ineffectiveness have tossed that script into a fire pit.
Veterans Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen were signed to fortify the defensive line. Their impact has been minimal. Pro Football Focus ranks Hargrave 108th out of 136 defensive linemen in overall grade. Allen is 96th.
Center Ryan Kelly is sidelined after suffering two concussions in three weeks. Right guard Will Fries is ranked 42nd out of 83 guards by PFF.
The defense’s disappearance is most alarming because other than Andrew Van Ginkel, coordinator Brian Flores has had his full complement of personnel. Known for causing disruption with an array of disguises and pressures, the defense doesn’t appear to be fooling anyone, nor taking anything away.
They already have allowed two opponents to rush for 200 yards. Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert shredded their pass defense in consecutive games, combining to complete 77% of their passes for 553 yards and six touchdowns.
Next up is what might be the NFL’s most explosive offense in Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff and collection of skill players.
What unfolded Thursday night at Los Angeles is the kind of loss that keeps coaches up at night. O’Connell, his staff and players have a lot to discuss, analyze and fix, assuming that last part is still possible.
The quarterback question should not even be a discussion at this point. J.J. McCarthy’s ankle should be healed enough for him to play. Get him back on the field and restart his development.
The Vikings don’t have an identity at this point. Not on offense or defense, something that is reliable regardless of circumstance. That is a jarring admission for a veteran team that was constructed to win now.
STRIB
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