Up-coming Draft Thoughts

[medaille]

I think there’s a huge amount of value to be gained for our offense for DL that can both pressure the QB and hold up in the run. If they can only do one or the other well, the guys who can pressure the QB are going to get most of the snaps. I think there’s room for one guy on the roster that is pure beef that you bring in for games when teams are spamming the run on your light guys.

One of the weirdities of this past season and offseason, is that our defense was better with Hargrave and Allen, than it was previously. In the past two years, we’ve gotten rid of 3 of our 4 quality starting DL. Maybe they weren’t the best guys or the cheapest guys, but we’re definitely going into the draft with two holes at DL and two holes at S. In the past we’d have tried to fill all the holes in free agency so that at least we’d have some floor of competency going into the draft, so this feels out of sorts to me to have glaring openings.

I kind of think we’re going to have to get two day one starters on defense from the draft or we’ll be regressing.

Sidenote: I think our defense was a little over-rated last year statistically and will regress to the mean on its own. Us having had a bottom 5 offense with little to threaten defenses with slowed the pace of games quite a bit. I kind of expect our defense to get worse in terms of yardage but better in terms of turnovers as teams have to push a little bit harder to keep up with our offense.

[Bullazin]

I think there’s a huge amount of value to be gained for our offense for DL that can both pressure the QB and hold up in the run.  If they can only do one or the other well, the guys who can pressure the QB are going to get most of the snaps.  I think there’s room for one guy on the roster that is pure beef that you bring in for games when teams are spamming the run on your light guys.

One of the weirdities of this past season and offseason, is that our defense was better with Hargrave and Allen, than it was previously.  In the past two years, we’ve gotten rid of 3 of our 4 quality starting DL.  Maybe they weren’t the best guys or the cheapest guys, but we’re definitely going into the draft with two holes at DL and two holes at S.  In the past we’d have tried to fill all the holes in free agency so that at least we’d have some floor of competency going into the draft, so this feels out of sorts to me to have glaring openings.

I kind of think we’re going to have to get two day one starters on defense from the draft or we’ll be regressing.

Sidenote:  I think our defense was a little over-rated last year statistically and will regress to the mean on its own.  Us having had a bottom 5 offense with little to threaten defenses with slowed the pace of games quite a bit.  I kind of expect our defense to get worse in terms of yardage but better in terms of turnovers as teams have to push a little bit harder to keep up with our offense.

Valid thoughts everywhere.  I also see d regression.  Who is going to play average IDL for us?   Not sure other than Redmond. 

One also cannot discount the Harry factor. He’s wall of fame if not HOF, a massive massive hole to fill.  I am a little consoled by Metellus getting healthy again, but he’s no Hitman. 

Finally, anyone remember the Atlanta game?  They slaughtered us when we knew they were going to run it down our throats.

[MaroonBells]

I think there’s a huge amount of value to be gained for our offense for DL that can both pressure the QB and hold up in the run.  If they can only do one or the other well, the guys who can pressure the QB are going to get most of the snaps.  I think there’s room for one guy on the roster that is pure beef that you bring in for games when teams are spamming the run on your light guys.

One of the weirdities of this past season and offseason, is that our defense was better with Hargrave and Allen, than it was previously.  In the past two years, we’ve gotten rid of 3 of our 4 quality starting DL.  Maybe they weren’t the best guys or the cheapest guys, but we’re definitely going into the draft with two holes at DL and two holes at S.  In the past we’d have tried to fill all the holes in free agency so that at least we’d have some floor of competency going into the draft, so this feels out of sorts to me to have glaring openings.

I kind of think we’re going to have to get two day one starters on defense from the draft or we’ll be regressing.

Sidenote:  I think our defense was a little over-rated last year statistically and will regress to the mean on its own.  Us having had a bottom 5 offense with little to threaten defenses with slowed the pace of games quite a bit.  I kind of expect our defense to get worse in terms of yardage but better in terms of turnovers as teams have to push a little bit harder to keep up with our offense.

Floor of competency is a good way to put that, because I was thinking of Rob B's word, "baseline," when I read it. It seems to me that Flores is OK with baseline corners if his safeties are versatile. Maybe he's OK with baseline IDLs as long as he generates enough heat from the rest of the defense. I think this may have been what Hargrave was referring to when commenting on Flores defense.

[purplefaithful]

We are going to need an ILB and RB too....

Just saying

[greediron]

Floor of competency is a good way to put that, because I was thinking of Rob B's word, "baseline," when I read it. It seems to me that Flores is OK with baseline corners if his safeties are versatile. Maybe he's OK with baseline IDLs as long as he generates enough heat from the rest of the defense. I think this may have been what Hargrave was referring to when commenting on Flores defense.

Yeah, I think Flo's defense made up for the lack of stellar play from inside.  I think Redmond covered up some of those blemishes.  Our D didn't have a ton of takeaways last year except for 2 games.  So if we have better consistency and less injuries to key players (Greenard, Van Ginkel, Harry) the defense could be even better.

[MaroonBells]

We are going to need an ILB and RB too....

Just saying

Yep, but with the resigning of Wilson, I'd say ILB went from a round 1-2 need to maybe a round 3-5 need. RB did the same a bit when we resigned Jones. But unlike ILB, where Cashman and Wilson will likely be the starters, I think RB is a position where the back we draft could be our RB1 at any point during the season...even if Jones stays healthy. I think RB is still a round 1-3 need. 

We also have a lot of draft picks for the first time in forever. I've done a couple mocks where I trade down slightly in the 1st to add a 3rd and a 5th, giving us 11 picks. There's an opportunity to add a big injection of youth to our roster if we do it right.

[Montana Tom]

I have given up trying to do my own draft prognostication, doing mock drafts myself and paying close attention to all the so-called "professionals" doing mock draft, version 1-19 et al, ad nauseum.

I am mildly curious of course. For what it represents each year, a replenishing of roster talent from the NFL minor leagues (college football), and the hope it renews each off season.

Years ago, I spent a ton of time analyzing all the available talent and building my own mock drafts (with some of you, no doubt). Only to find that the reward, while nice (a signed Vikings football from Tom, our own erstwhile reporter who gained press credentials to go to TC and games), didn't really justify the time involved, and the end result did not resemble anything in reality. So I'll follow mildly, realizing that while the first round retains some predictability, after that, it's a crap shoot at worst, and merely entertainment for us all, at best.

[purplefaithful]

Yep, but with the resigning of Wilson, I'd say ILB went from a round 1-2 need to maybe a round 3-5 need. RB did the same a bit when we resigned Jones. But unlike ILB, where Cashman and Wilson will likely be the starters, I think RB is a position where the back we draft could be our RB1 at any point during the season...even if Jones stays healthy. I think RB is still a round 1-3 need. 

We also have a lot of draft picks for the first time in forever. I've done a couple mocks where I trade down slightly in the 1st to add a 3rd and a 5th, giving us 11 picks. There's an opportunity to add a big injection of youth to our roster if we do it right.

Yup, I could live with that...Bldg on what your proposing and thinking of immediate need not depth: 

DL: Rd 1-2
S: Rd 1-2
RB: Rd 2-3 (couldn't put 1 unless they move up for Love) 
ILB: Rd 2-5 ( I bumped this a bit cause Cashman cant stay on the field)
WR: Rd 2-5

[Knucklehead]

Yep, but with the resigning of Wilson, I'd say ILB went from a round 1-2 need to maybe a round 3-5 need. RB did the same a bit when we resigned Jones. But unlike ILB, where Cashman and Wilson will likely be the starters, I think RB is a position where the back we draft could be our RB1 at any point during the season...even if Jones stays healthy. I think RB is still a round 1-3 need. 

We also have a lot of draft picks for the first time in forever. I've done a couple mocks where I trade down slightly in the 1st to add a 3rd and a 5th, giving us 11 picks. There's an opportunity to add a big injection of youth to our roster if we do it right.

Agreed. Wilson is 31 years old. His role is to rush the QB. He's a downright liability against the pass. Cashman will be 30 by the time the season kicks off. The problem is that he's frequently injured & you can't depend on him to play 17 games. There's no other off ball LBs on the roster who can adequately replace him when he's out.

Jake Rodriquez, Texas Tech
Jake Golday, Cincinnati
Anthony Hill, Texas

Would love to add one of the above to the team. Rodriquez is getting some love as a back of the first round prospect. He'll be drafted in the top of the 2nd round at the latest. Maybe Golday or Hill falls to the 3rd round

[MaroonBells]

Agreed. Wilson is 31 years old. His role is to rush the QB. He's a downright liability against the pass. Cashman will be 30 by the time the season kicks off. The problem is that he's frequently injured & you can't depend on him to play 17 games. There's no other off ball LBs on the roster who can adequately replace him when he's out.

Jake Rodriquez, Texas Tech
Jake Golday, Cincinnati
Anthony Hill, Texas

Would love to add one of the above to the team. Rodriquez is getting some love as a back of the first round prospect. He'll be drafted in the top of the 2nd round at the latest. Maybe Golday or Hill falls to the 3rd round

Rodriguez is one of my favorite players in the draft. I put ILB as a 3-5 round need, but if he's there in the 2nd (as you say, he may not even drop that far), I'd have a hard time passing on him.