We're on to Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season. Insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano have been calling sources around the league for the latest news and buzz on key situations.
This week, we dive into Daniel Jones' Achilles injury and its ramifications, which go beyond the Colts' playoff chances.
How will Jones' injury affect his free agency and the quarterback market in general? Dan and Jeremy also evaluate several disappointing 2025 teams and the fixes they could make to bounce back next season. And we're also diving headfirst into the upcoming coaching cycle. How many franchises will be looking for new head coaches, and which coordinator stands out most among the talent pool?
What are you hearing on how Daniel Jones' injury could affect free agency and the QB market?
Graziano: I've heard a few theories in the couple of days since Jones injured his Achilles. One is that it makes sense for him to re-sign with the Colts, since they know him and know he can run their offense. He could rehab with them all offseason and hit the ground running whenever he's cleared. That could be on another one-year deal or maybe a two-year deal with incentives that could make the second year more lucrative if he recovers fully and plays well.
Another is that it would make sense for him to go back to Minnesota, where he finished last season as Sam Darnold's backup, and rehab there with a staff that knows him and wanted to retain him but couldn't guarantee him the starting job this past offseason. Either way, the idea of a lucrative, long-term contract extension in Indianapolis (or somewhere else) probably slides to the back burner in light of Jones' most recent season-ending injury.
The other thing to consider, Jeremy, is who's going to be making the decisions for the Colts this offseason, since there has been chatter about coaches and front office personnel being on the hot seat since last offseason. I wonder how a potential late-season collapse (if that's coming) would affect things on that front.
Fowler: The Colts' brass had quelled the noise with this season's hot start, Dan, but new owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon will evaluate the full body of work. Since a repeat 8-9 season is still on the table, finishing with seven consecutive losses wouldn't be the best thing for the future tenures of head coach Shane Steichen or general manager Chris Ballard. But I think everyone there recognizes that Indy has built a good team that thrived over the season's first 10 games -- especially Jones, who remains the top free agent quarterback available despite this injury.
If the Colts and Vikings pursue Jones, then he has a nice little market to drive up his demand. But maybe it doesn't get that far ... if Indianapolis puts the franchise or transition tag on Jones. That's not totally off the table after asking around. Those numbers are projected somewhere between $39 million and $46 million. Either way, getting creative with the contract to cover both sides will be important, but Jones will need security beyond a one-year deal considering how late in the calendar year the Achilles tear occurred.
So, the injury is a factor, but I'm not so sure it affects his market too much. As you know, Dan, the upcoming free agent class isn't exactly loaded at quarterback.
Graziano: Sure, but I guess the point of the question is more about the reduced likelihood of a big deal, like a Baker Mayfield-type deal or Darnold-level deal -- or heck, even the type of deal Jones got from the Giants a few years back. I think that's the impact of the injury -- that he and whichever team he ends up with will have to be creative and, as you suggest, build something that gives Jones some time to not only get back onto the field but also get back to playing at a relatively high level.
Jones is still only 28, so there's certainly plenty of hope for him to recover and still have a future in the league. But this is also the third season-ending injury of his career, and that history has to be a concern for whichever team is interested in signing him.
Fowler: That's valid. My sense is Indianapolis will want to see how Jones is progressing in his rehab before deciding. That will help inform the team on how to proceed. If the Colts believe Jones will be a productive starter for them over the next three to four seasons, then perhaps paying him a respectable market deal now will be a discount in two years, instead of haggling over the level of discount required because of the injury.
Jones has been Indy's most viable quarterback option since Andrew Luck, so the Colts might not be afraid to pay him big. Coaches and teammates there love him. And a few other teams could be facing a quarterback transition -- the Browns, Jets and Raiders among them.
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