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1st Round QBs Don't Often Stay Long
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02-19-2021, 02:28 PM
Here's something of a strong argument against betting everything on drafting blue chip QBs:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...fted-them/
OK, KAM, KOC, JJM, Jettas, and all the rest: Make the needed changes and let's rule 2026!
02-19-2021, 03:06 PM
Quote: @Zanary said:Why didn't Andy Reid know this before he traded up for Mahomes (when he had Alex Smith) or the Texans when they traded up for Watson? Does this stat imply that you should NOT take a QB in the first round? They can make that stat with a lot of positions.
02-19-2021, 03:26 PM
There is a lot of associated relevant data missing that should be present to make the conclusions people are trying to apply.
How many RBs, WRs, LBs, or any other position, drafted in that time frame are still with their original teams? Need to know that if someone wants to conclude that QBs are a bad position to pick in the first round. What percent of 1st-round picks at ANY position are still with the team that drafted them? This might just be an outcome of the free-agent era. The author picked an 8-year period and assessed it 5 years after its end. What did the period prior (2001-08) look like in 2013? Maybe it's always been normal, or only a few players different. It's an interesting stat, sure. IMO a big factor is that starting QB is the position that is most associated with a head coach's control of a team. Get a new coach and he wants his own QB...so the rate of QB turnover could correlate to coaching turnover.
02-19-2021, 03:26 PM
You could pretty much says the same thing about every position. There are no guarantees in the draft, regardless of the player evaluations there is no way to know for sure who a player will perform at the next level. Add in the length of the rookie contract and the cost to extend and there is no surprise 5 years later you would find few players at any position still on their original team. During same period, 4 of 33 WRs are still with their original team, which is even more amazing when you think that a team has 2-3 main WRs who play and carry 5-6.
02-19-2021, 03:28 PM
Just curious. Anyone offering up a franchise panacea of sucking for a WR?
02-19-2021, 03:30 PM
Quote: @JR44 said:Outstanding work - that's exactly the kind of comparative stat that I wanted (but was too lazy to research myself). Thanks for providing perspective!
02-20-2021, 05:46 PM
I saw the article as interesting, because every offseason there's choruses of "trade our picks and half of our blue-chip players to draft (QB x)". This offseason in particular, there's an unending pile of trade babble surrounding our QB to the point that the bobbleheads in question are actually getting sub-stories out of their own fixation on Mr. Cousins. Meanwhile, the most glaring issues on our team are elsewhere and brutally obvious.
I'm honestly finding the every-offseason-QB-speculation as tiring as the years we spent wondering if the team would be staying, moving, getting a stadium, getting sold, etc etc etc. We've got a guy who's reportedly 2nd deadliest in the league with a clean pocket, and who's accurate while also being very productive. He's not perfect, but he managed to get a TD vs Tampa Bay (while getting sacked more times than Brady had pressures)...something Mahomes couldn't do in the Superb Owl. So, I put this out there for thought, not as an absolute statement.
02-21-2021, 02:14 PM
"https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1363292353256071172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">
02-21-2021, 02:28 PM
"https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1362854729072713729?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
02-21-2021, 02:38 PM
Quote: @Carl Knowles said:Carl, don't bring this shit in here...you know he sucks. :p |
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