Can go to bed happy

[Mattyman]

I'm pulling for Sam

If Sammy gets sacked, makes a bunch of turnovers and looks bad and loses is where things get interesting.....

The niners were gimped and not competitive. Rams will give then a better game,

I think Sammy is gonna lock up and go blue screen of death. I'll be watching Sunday.

[medaille]

I'm not rooting for Uncle Sammy, but I'm really not rooting for anyone at this point. Chicago messed up last night and should have took the easy FG points when they had them. Dumb. This ultra aggressive trend of going for it on 4th down is sometimes ridiculous.

Is it ridiculous or did they do the things that gave themselves the highest probability of winning, but it just didn't work out?

[StickierBuns]

Is it ridiculous or did they do the things that gave themselves the highest probability of winning, but it just didn't work out?

No, its quite ridiculous. How does this give a team the highest probability of winning by taking 3 points off the board? And it wouldn't be winning, it would be gaining a first down. Again, no points....only another chance to potentially score a TD. And having those 3 extra points would have changed dynamically later in the game how the Bears would have strategically approached the game both offensively and defensively....which would have very much given themselves the highest probability of winning. 

Honestly, if I see anymore 'percentage probabilities' graphics on anything, I'm going to puke. Hell, some of these guys can't even give you a good answer for why they go for it on 4th down: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/why-be...p_catchall  It isn't even about analytics. And Meathead Campbell in Detroit has notoriously gone for it on some 4th downs when analytics have 'advised' not to. 

The problem is when 'things just don't work out' in football, you can lose the game or even more importantly, get kicked out of the playoffs. Its more situational and less about large subsets that create an aggregate probability that would be worth a damn consistently to a NFL play caller. You have execute, with many moving parts, in a pressurized situation and many variables outside a static environment of say a dice roll or a turn of the roulette wheel.

[JimmyinSD]

No, its quite ridiculous. How does this give a team the highest probability of winning by taking 3 points off the board? And it wouldn't be winning, it would be gaining a first down. Again, no points....only another chance to potentially score a TD. And having those 3 extra points would have changed dynamically later in the game how the Bears would have strategically approached the game both offensively and defensively....which would have very much given themselves the highest probability of winning. 

Honestly, if I see anymore 'percentage probabilities' graphics on anything, I'm going to puke. Hell, some of these guys can't even give you a good answer for why they go for it on 4th down: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/why-be...p_catchall  It isn't even about analytics. And Meathead Campbell in Detroit has notoriously gone for it on some 4th downs when analytics have 'advised' not to. 

The problem is when 'things just don't work out' in football, you can lose the game or even more importantly, get kicked out of the playoffs. Its more situational and less about large subsets that create an aggregate probability that would be worth a damn consistently to a NFL play caller. You have execute, with many moving parts, in a pressurized situation and many variables outside a static environment of say a dice roll or a turn of the roulette wheel.

I know stats and probabilities and metrics and ..... all the other mathematical analysis buzz words that get created to keep people over thinking the game are all the rage,  but honestly,  if this could all be done by math,  why are teams still paying the guys that make those calls when it counts 20 million per year?  seems you could find a game day manager for a fraction of that money and just let them use the math.

there are situations that cant be defined by score, down and distance, field position,  etc etc etc,   things that a machine cant calculate or pre programmed to comprehend,  its these things that win/lose the games and over reliance on the math is just lame excuses for bad instincts in many cases IMO.